Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Finland v Belarus

2026-09-29 16:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Finland (Local)

Prediction 55.01%1.82fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -5.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.60%54.79%55.27%55.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.691.701.7460.98%59.01%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Belarus (Visit)

Prediction 17.99%5.56fair odd
EV +0.014%
Edge +0.002%
Kelly +0.003%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.92%18.19%17.64%20.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.095.005.5622.73%19.66%20.00%17.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.00%3.70fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.621%
Kelly -0.857%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.17%27.02%27.10%28.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.393.403.6231.25%29.51%29.41%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Finland (Local): 55.01%; Belarus (Visit): 17.99%; Draw: 27.00%. For Belarus (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.559. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.560, producing a positive expected value of +0.014%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.75%EV -4.29%E -2.46%K -5.79%G +0.000%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.45%EV +0.014%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.80%EV -2.25%E -0.621%K -0.857%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-27 12:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.77%EV -5.39%E -3.13%K -7.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.44%EV -1.07%E -0.194%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.79%EV -3.33%E -0.929%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-27 12:15
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.72%EV -8.14%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -1.07%E -0.194%K -0.237%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-27 08:30
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.49%E -3.82%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -2.86%E -0.530%K -0.651%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 08:30
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -6.49%E -3.82%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -2.86%E -0.530%K -0.651%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-27 08:30
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.49%EV -4.84%E -2.80%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.79%EV -4.66%E -0.880%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 08:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.49%EV -4.84%E -2.80%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.79%EV -4.66%E -0.880%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 08:30
Bovada🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.51%EV -8.69%E -5.23%K -13.16%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.39%EV -4.66%E -0.880%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-27 08:32
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.84%E -2.80%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.07%EV -5.56%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -5.49%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 09:59
Suprabets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.52%EV -9.24%E -5.60%K -14.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.62%EV -6.46%E -1.24%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 26.86%EV -7.92%E -2.32%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-27 08:32
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -4.84%E -2.80%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -10.06%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -5.49%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-27 10:00
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -4.84%E -2.80%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -10.06%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -5.49%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-27 10:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -4.84%E -2.80%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -10.06%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -5.49%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-27 10:00
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -6.49%E -3.82%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -10.06%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-27 08:29
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.67%EV -6.49%E -3.82%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -10.06%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.08%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-27 08:30
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.35%EV -8.14%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -10.06%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-27 08:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -8.14%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -10.06%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-27 08:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.12%EV -8.14%E -4.87%K -12.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -10.06%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -12.24%E -3.77%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-27 08:29
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.18%EV -9.24%E -5.60%K -14.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -10.06%E -2.01%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-27 08:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.14%EV -9.79%E -5.97%K -15.29%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.12%EV -11.86%E -2.42%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.74%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-27 08:30
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -4.84%E -2.80%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.43%EV -13.66%E -2.85%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.49%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-27 10:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.20%EV -7.59%E -4.52%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -14.56%E -3.06%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.63%EV -7.65%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-27 10:03
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.76%EV -7.59%E -4.52%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -19.05%E -4.23%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -6.84%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-27 10:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.60%EV -8.69%E -5.23%K -13.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.22%EV -20.85%E -4.74%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.17%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-27 10:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.39%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.17%1.4%2026-09-27 12:31
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.39%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.17%1.4%2026-09-27 11:31
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.39%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.17%1.4%2026-09-27 11:31