The School of Odds
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England v Spain

2026-09-26 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 35.73%2.80fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.33%35.76%35.73%36.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.602.652.7041.67%38.41%37.74%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spain (Visit)

Prediction 36.64%2.73fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.670%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.72%36.64%36.64%37.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.542.552.6842.55%39.39%39.22%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.63%3.62fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.783%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.51%27.60%27.63%28.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.383.403.5232.26%29.62%29.41%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: England (Local): 35.73%; Spain (Visit): 36.64%; Draw: 27.63%. For Spain (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.68, with an expected value of -1.79%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.04%EV -3.53%E -1.31%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.31%EV -1.79%E -0.670%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.65%EV -2.76%E -0.783%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-20 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 36.04%EV -3.53%E -1.31%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.31%EV -1.79%E -0.670%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.65%EV -2.76%E -0.783%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-20 22:55
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.31%E -2.01%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.07%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-20 18:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.31%E -2.01%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.07%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-20 20:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.31%E -2.01%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.07%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-20 20:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.31%E -2.01%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.07%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-20 20:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.31%E -2.01%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.07%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-20 20:24
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.31%E -2.01%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.07%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-20 20:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.31%E -2.01%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.07%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-20 20:24
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.31%E -2.01%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -6.07%E -1.79%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-20 20:39
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.28%EV -6.39%E -2.44%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -4.73%E -1.82%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -3.31%E -0.946%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-10 18:10
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.10%E -2.73%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -3.31%E -0.946%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-10 18:13
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.10%E -2.73%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.39%E -3.36%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -3.31%E -0.946%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-10 18:09
Suprabets🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 35.86%EV -8.53%E -3.33%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.72%EV -5.83%E -2.27%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.42%EV -10.77%E -3.33%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-28 12:16
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -8.89%E -3.49%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -8.39%E -3.36%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -3.31%E -0.946%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-10 18:10
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.89%E -3.49%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -6.56%E -2.57%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -10.22%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-25 17:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 35.33%EV -9.60%E -3.80%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.22%E -4.17%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.19%EV -12.43%E -3.92%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-24 08:27
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.73%EV -12.46%E -5.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -12.05%E -5.02%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -12.98%E -4.12%K -6.04%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-24 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.77%EV -14.25%E -5.94%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.53%EV -13.89%E -5.91%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.69%EV -14.36%E -4.63%K -6.84%G +0.000%16.5%2026-08-24 08:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 33.73%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.73%1.13I 88.50%NM 32.54%172.0%2026-08-30 01:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 33.73%1.09I 91.74%NM 33.73%1.13I 88.50%NM 32.54%172.0%2026-08-30 01:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 34.04%1.06I 94.34%NM 34.04%1.13I 88.50%NM 31.93%177.2%2026-08-29 22:40