The School of Odds
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England v Spain

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 18:45 UTC

Final: England 2–3 Spain

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 27.93%3.58fair odd
EV -0.833%
Edge -0.235%
Kelly -0.327%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.90%27.94%27.95%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.323.353.5533.33%30.10%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spain (Visit)

Prediction 43.80%2.28fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.57%43.98%43.85%46.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.142.152.2150.51%46.76%46.51%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.305%
Kelly -0.427%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.90%28.07%28.20%28.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.343.353.5031.25%29.90%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 27.93%; Spain (Visit): 43.80%; Draw: 28.27%. For England (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -0.833%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.45%EV -0.833%E -0.235%K -0.327%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.70%EV -4.52%E -2.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%EV -1.07%E -0.305%K -0.427%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-26 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.45%EV -0.833%E -0.235%K -0.327%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.70%EV -4.52%E -2.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%EV -1.07%E -0.305%K -0.427%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-26 18:40
1xBet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 27.09%EV -1.11%E -0.314%K -0.438%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.20%EV -4.96%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.71%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 18:39
Marathon Bet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 27.88%EV -2.79%E -0.801%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.91%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.21%EV -2.76%E -0.803%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-26 18:39
Pinnacle🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.00%EV -3.63%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.91%EV -3.64%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.08%EV -2.76%E -0.803%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-26 18:35
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -7.15%E -3.37%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 18:40
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -7.15%E -3.37%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 18:40
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.02%E -3.82%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 18:40
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.02%E -3.82%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 18:40
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.02%E -3.82%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 18:35
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.02%E -3.82%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-26 18:30
Betclic (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.20%EV -13.28%E -6.71%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-26 18:22
Suprabets🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 28.03%EV -5.58%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.26%EV -4.08%E -1.86%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.71%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 18:22
Bovada🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.49%EV -5.39%E -2.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 18:40
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.61%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-26 18:15
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.61%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-26 18:15
PMU (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -10.21%E -4.98%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-26 18:40
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-26 18:40
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -3.64%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 18:35
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -1.07%E -0.305%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-26 18:20
TAB🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-26 18:40
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-26 18:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.91%EV -9.77%E -4.74%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.91%EV -9.77%E -4.74%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -3.64%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 18:35
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -3.64%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -3.64%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 18:35
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.15%E -3.37%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-26 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -12.01%E -3.81%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-26 18:19
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.02%E -3.82%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-26 18:19
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -16.20%E -5.40%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-26 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.10%0.2%2026-09-26 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.77%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%0.6%2026-09-26 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.77%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%0.6%2026-09-26 18:40