The School of Odds
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England v Spain

2026-09-26 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 36.20%2.76fair odd
EV -5.16%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -3.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.93%36.20%36.20%36.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.572.582.6240.00%38.96%38.83%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spain (Visit)

Prediction 36.91%2.71fair odd
EV -0.714%
Edge -0.265%
Kelly -0.422%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.13%36.91%36.91%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.412.542.522.6941.49%39.34%39.60%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.89%3.72fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.85%26.89%26.89%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.453.503.5431.75%29.00%28.57%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: England (Local): 36.20%; Spain (Visit): 36.91%; Draw: 26.89%. For Spain (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.69, with an expected value of -0.714%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.28%EV -5.16%E -1.97%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -4.04%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-10 18:10
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.88%E -2.31%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-10 18:13
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.88%E -2.26%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.73%E -3.09%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-10 18:09
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.69%E -3.02%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.73%E -3.09%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -5.88%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-10 18:10
1xBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.17%EV -8.42%E -3.33%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 37.97%EV -11.05%E -4.58%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 25.85%EV -4.81%E -1.36%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-10 18:09
Suprabets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -9.50%E -3.80%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.13%EV -0.714%E -0.265%K -0.422%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.15%EV -15.29%E -4.85%K -7.11%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-10 18:11
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%194.1%2026-08-10 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.33%194.1%2026-08-10 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-08-10 18:15

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