The School of Odds
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England v Spain

2026-09-26 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 34.04%2.94fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.922%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.14%34.18%33.85%36.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.672.632.8640.82%37.47%38.02%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spain (Visit)

Prediction 37.84%2.64fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.625%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.02%37.81%37.84%38.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.492.6043.48%40.26%40.16%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.12%3.56fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.451%
Kelly -0.631%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.51%28.02%28.31%29.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.363.383.5032.26%29.76%29.63%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: England (Local): 34.04%; Spain (Visit): 37.84%; Draw: 28.12%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.50, with an expected value of -1.58%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.31%EV -2.64%E -0.922%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.65%EV -4.27%E -1.69%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.04%EV -7.76%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-15 20:55
1xBet🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.74%EV -3.32%E -1.17%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.57%EV -3.52%E -1.38%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.69%EV -6.08%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-17 12:13
Marathon Bet🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.74%EV -3.32%E -1.17%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.57%EV -3.52%E -1.38%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.69%EV -6.08%E -1.82%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-17 12:15
Bovada🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.15%EV -3.66%E -1.29%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.53%EV -5.41%E -2.16%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -10.01%E -3.13%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 20:51
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.41%E -2.16%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 14:20
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -5.41%E -2.16%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -12.83%E -4.14%K -6.11%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 21:45
Suprabets🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.57%EV -7.68%E -3.15%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -11.42%E -3.63%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 20:52
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.38%E -2.32%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -9.19%E -3.83%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -10.01%E -3.13%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-19 13:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.02%EV -7.40%E -2.72%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.77%EV -7.30%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.21%EV -7.76%E -2.37%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 14:01
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -1.63%E -0.625%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -4.39%E -1.29%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 14:19
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -5.41%E -2.16%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.20%E -2.18%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-19 18:49
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -8.08%E -2.99%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -12.98%E -5.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -10.01%E -3.13%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 05:50
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -10.47%E -3.98%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -6.17%E -2.49%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -10.47%E -3.98%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -6.17%E -2.49%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 10:00
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -10.47%E -3.98%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -6.17%E -2.49%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -10.47%E -3.98%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -6.17%E -2.49%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 10:00
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.56%EV -10.47%E -3.98%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.71%EV -6.17%E -2.49%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 10:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -10.47%E -3.98%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -7.30%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 10:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.40%EV -10.47%E -3.98%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.00%EV -7.30%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 10:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -10.81%E -4.13%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -1.63%E -0.625%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -4.39%E -1.29%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -11.49%E -4.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -3.52%E -1.38%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 06:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -11.49%E -4.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -1.63%E -0.625%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -5.80%E -1.73%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 12:00
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -11.49%E -4.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -1.63%E -0.625%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -5.80%E -1.73%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 12:00
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -11.49%E -4.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -5.41%E -2.16%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 06:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -11.49%E -4.42%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -8.06%E -3.32%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -2.98%E -0.865%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 10:00
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -13.19%E -5.17%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -5.41%E -2.16%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -1.58%E -0.451%K -0.631%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-31 06:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -14.89%E -5.96%K -9.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.23%EV -11.08%E -4.72%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -11.42%E -3.63%K -5.31%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-12 14:21
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.02%EV -16.60%E -6.77%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.30%EV -12.98%E -5.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.68%EV -12.83%E -4.14%K -6.11%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 33.76%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.04%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.20%4.3%2026-09-19 22:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 33.76%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.04%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.20%4.3%2026-09-19 22:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 33.76%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.04%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.20%4.3%2026-09-19 22:19