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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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England v Spain

开赛时间： 2026-09-26 18:45 UTC

最终结果： England 2–3 Spain

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

31 家博彩公司 (9 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

England (主队)

预测 27.93%3.58公平赔率
EV -0.833%
优势 -0.235%
Kelly -0.327%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.55

博彩公司预测分布
26.90%27.94%27.95%30.51%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.003.323.353.5533.33%30.10%29.85%28.17%最小值均值中位数最大值

Spain (客队)

预测 43.80%2.28公平赔率
EV -3.20%
优势 -1.45%
Kelly -2.65%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.21

博彩公司预测分布
42.57%43.98%43.85%46.20%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.982.142.152.2150.51%46.76%46.51%45.25%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 28.27%3.54公平赔率
EV -1.07%
优势 -0.305%
Kelly -0.427%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.50

博彩公司预测分布
26.90%28.07%28.20%28.86%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.203.343.353.5031.25%29.90%29.85%28.57%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：England (主队)：27.93%；Spain (客队)：43.80%；平局：28.27%。 对于“England (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.58。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为3.55，期望值为-0.833%，未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (31 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队平局利润率更新时间
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.45%EV -0.833%E -0.235%K -0.327%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.70%EV -4.52%E -2.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%EV -1.07%E -0.305%K -0.427%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-26 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.45%EV -0.833%E -0.235%K -0.327%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.70%EV -4.52%E -2.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%EV -1.07%E -0.305%K -0.427%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-26 18:40
1xBet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 27.09%EV -1.11%E -0.314%K -0.438%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.20%EV -4.96%E -2.28%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.71%EV -5.59%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-26 18:39
Marathon Bet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 27.88%EV -2.79%E -0.801%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.91%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.21%EV -2.76%E -0.803%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-26 18:39
Pinnacle🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.00%EV -3.63%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.91%EV -3.64%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.08%EV -2.76%E -0.803%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-26 18:35
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -7.15%E -3.37%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 18:40
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.32%EV -7.15%E -3.37%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-26 18:40
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.02%E -3.82%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 18:40
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.02%E -3.82%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 18:40
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.02%E -3.82%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-26 18:35
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -8.02%E -3.82%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-26 18:30
Betclic (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -5.02%E -1.48%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.20%EV -13.28%E -6.71%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-26 18:22
Suprabets🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 28.03%EV -5.58%E -1.65%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.26%EV -4.08%E -1.86%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.71%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 18:22
Bovada🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.49%EV -5.39%E -2.50%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 18:40
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.61%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-26 18:15
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.61%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-26 18:15
PMU (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -6.42%E -1.92%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -10.21%E -4.98%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-26 18:40
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.82%E -2.37%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-26 18:40
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -3.64%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 18:35
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -1.07%E -0.305%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-26 18:20
TAB🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-26 18:40
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.13%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-26 18:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.91%EV -9.77%E -4.74%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -9.21%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.91%EV -9.77%E -4.74%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-26 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -3.64%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 18:35
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -3.64%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -3.64%E -1.66%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-26 18:35
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -10.61%E -3.32%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.15%E -3.37%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-26 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.48%EV -12.01%E -3.81%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-26 18:19
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -13.40%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -8.02%E -3.82%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-26 18:19
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -16.20%E -5.40%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.83%E -2.71%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -3.89%E -1.15%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-26 18:40
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.10%0.2%2026-09-26 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.77%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%0.6%2026-09-26 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.77%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%0.6%2026-09-26 18:40