Language:English
Croatia v Spain
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Croatia (Local)
Prediction 9.97%10.03fair odd
EV +14.65%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.40%
Growth +0.204%
assuming max odds 11.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.21%9.97%9.88%10.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.579.5011.5011.76%10.45%10.53%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Spain (Visit)
Prediction 74.35%1.34fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -11.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.76%74.32%74.38%75.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.261.3081.97%79.30%79.37%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.68%6.38fair odd
EV +2.83%
Edge +0.432%
Kelly +0.510%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 6.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.36%15.71%15.74%17.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.926.006.5619.05%16.89%16.67%15.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Croatia (Local): 9.97%; Spain (Visit): 74.35%; Draw: 15.68%. For Croatia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.03. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.65%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.21%EV +14.65%E +1.27%K +1.40%G +0.204% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.79%EV -4.83%E -3.77%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -17.70%E -3.37%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 11:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.21%EV +14.65%E +1.27%K +1.40%G +0.204% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.79%EV -4.83%E -3.77%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -17.70%E -3.37%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 11:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.86%EV +9.66%E +0.878%K +0.966%G +0.093% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.55%EV -4.08%E -3.16%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.59%EV -2.03%E -0.324%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-05 12:31 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.86%EV +9.66%E +0.878%K +0.966%G +0.093% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.55%EV -4.08%E -3.16%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.59%EV -2.03%E -0.324%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-05 12:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.86%EV +9.66%E +0.878%K +0.966%G +0.093% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.55%EV -4.08%E -3.16%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.59%EV -2.03%E -0.324%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-10-05 12:31 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV +9.66%E +0.878%K +0.966%G +0.093% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 11:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV +4.68%E +0.446%K +0.492%G +0.023% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.63%EV -8.54%E -6.95%K -37.15%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-04 22:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV +4.68%E +0.446%K +0.492%G +0.023% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -9.29%E -7.61%K -42.22%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-05 07:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.69%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.55%EV -3.34%E -2.57%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.76%EV -3.59%E -0.584%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-05 09:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.69%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.55%EV -3.34%E -2.57%K -11.13%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.76%EV -3.59%E -0.584%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-05 09:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.77%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.69%EV +1.89%E +0.291%K +0.344%G +0.007% | 4.7% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.57%E -4.39%K -20.63%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -4.08%E -3.16%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -13.78%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-05 08:11 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.57%E -4.39%K -20.63%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -9.86%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-05 12:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.41%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.49%EV -4.83%E -3.77%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -13.78%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-05 13:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -9.86%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 12:31 |
| Unibet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -9.86%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 12:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -9.86%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 12:31 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -0.306%E -0.031%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.29%E -7.61%K -42.22%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-04 22:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 9.77I 10.24%NM 9.82%EV -2.60%E -0.266%K -0.296%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.55%EV -5.57%E -4.39%K -20.63%G +0.000% | 6.56I 15.24%NM 14.63%EV +2.83%E +0.432%K +0.510%G +0.014% | 4.2% | 2026-10-05 15:11 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.03%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.47%EV -4.83%E -3.77%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.50%EV -3.59%E -0.584%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 12:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.03%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.47%EV -4.83%E -3.77%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.50%EV -3.59%E -0.584%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 15:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.03%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.47%EV -4.83%E -3.77%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.50%EV -3.59%E -0.584%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 12:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.33%EV -5.57%E -4.39%K -20.63%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-04 20:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.66%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.57%EV -12.21%E -2.18%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 11:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.66%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.57%EV -12.21%E -2.18%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-05 11:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.81%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -12.21%E -2.18%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 11:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.81%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -12.21%E -2.18%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 11:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.81%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -12.21%E -2.18%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-05 11:01 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -9.29%E -7.61%K -42.22%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -9.86%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-05 11:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -5.29%E -0.557%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -9.29%E -7.61%K -42.22%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -9.86%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-05 11:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.18%EV -7.78%E -0.841%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.75%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.07%EV -2.03%E -0.324%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-05 13:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 9.10I 10.99%NM 10.18%EV -9.28%E -1.02%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.12%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.70%EV -7.51%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -10.28%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.08%E -3.16%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 11:51 |
| Coral🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -10.28%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.83%E -3.77%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 11:51 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -10.28%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.83%E -3.77%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-05 11:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -10.28%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 11:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -10.28%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.28%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 12:41 |
| Fliff🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.16%EV -10.28%E -1.14%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.34%EV -8.54%E -6.95%K -37.15%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.50%EV -7.51%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-05 13:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.30%EV -11.27%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.90%EV -7.80%E -6.29%K -32.50%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%EV -9.08%E -1.57%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-05 11:28 |
| Neds🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.70%EV -12.77%E -1.46%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.15%EV -4.83%E -3.77%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.14%EV -9.08%E -1.57%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 11:51 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.70%EV -12.77%E -1.46%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.15%EV -4.83%E -3.77%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.14%EV -9.08%E -1.57%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 11:51 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.51%EV -12.77%E -1.46%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.16%EV -7.80%E -6.29%K -32.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -5.94%E -0.991%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.65%EV -14.26%E -1.66%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -7.80%E -6.29%K -32.50%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.52%EV -7.51%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 04:07 |
| Betway🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -15.26%E -1.80%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.66%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV +1.89%E +0.291%K +0.344%G +0.007% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 13:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -15.26%E -1.80%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.66%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV +1.89%E +0.291%K +0.344%G +0.007% | 7.1% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -15.26%E -1.80%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.54%EV -8.54%E -6.95%K -37.15%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.67%EV -2.03%E -0.324%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-05 11:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -15.26%E -1.80%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -9.86%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -15.26%E -1.80%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -9.86%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 11:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -15.26%E -1.80%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -9.86%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-05 11:26 |
| William Hill🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -15.26%E -1.80%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -7.06%E -5.65%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -13.78%E -2.51%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-04 21:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.35% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.67% | 0.2% | 2026-10-05 14:46 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.48% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.58% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 14:46 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.48% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.58% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 15:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.93% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.48% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.58% | 0.8% | 2026-10-05 14:50 |