The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Belarus v Albania

2026-11-15 17:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Belarus (Local)

Prediction 22.75%4.40fair odd
EV +3.50%
Edge +0.769%
Kelly +0.986%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.89%22.66%22.81%24.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.004.004.5527.78%24.99%25.00%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Albania (Visit)

Prediction 48.66%2.06fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.03%48.72%48.55%50.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.921.922.0054.64%52.08%52.08%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.60%3.50fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -0.989%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%28.61%28.63%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.3833.33%30.81%30.77%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Belarus (Local): 22.75%; Albania (Visit): 48.66%; Draw: 28.60%. For Belarus (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.55, producing a positive expected value of +3.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.89%EV +3.50%E +0.769%K +0.986%G +0.035%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.30%EV -8.04%E -4.25%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -5.63%E -1.71%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-13 21:30
LowVig.ag🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.89%EV +3.50%E +0.769%K +0.986%G +0.035%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.30%EV -8.04%E -4.25%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -5.63%E -1.71%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-13 21:30
Pinnacle🎯4.36I 22.94%NM 21.74%EV -0.822%E -0.189%K -0.245%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.88%EV -7.55%E -3.98%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.38%EV -4.49%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-13 21:40
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -1.50%E -0.347%K -0.452%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.60%EV -9.01%E -4.82%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -8.49%E -2.65%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-13 21:44
1xBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.82%EV -3.32%E -0.782%K -1.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.49%EV -2.69%E -1.34%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.69%EV -3.34%E -0.989%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-13 21:30
NordicBet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.32%E -0.782%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.17%EV -6.58%E -3.43%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -5.63%E -1.71%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-13 21:30
Betsson🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.22%EV -3.32%E -0.782%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.17%EV -6.58%E -3.43%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -5.63%E -1.71%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-13 21:30
Marathon Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.84%EV -4.46%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -3.66%E -1.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.72%EV -4.49%E -1.34%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-13 21:25
Betway🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.46%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -8.53%E -4.54%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -5.63%E -1.71%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-13 21:29
Bovada🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -4.46%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.62%EV -9.50%E -5.11%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -7.06%E -2.17%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-13 21:29
BetUS🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.12%E -2.63%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.63%E -1.71%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-13 21:30
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -5.12%E -2.63%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.06%E -2.17%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-13 21:34
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -5.12%E -2.63%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -7.06%E -2.17%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-13 21:35
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -5.12%E -2.63%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -8.49%E -2.65%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-13 21:35
ReBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.16%EV -6.58%E -3.43%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.72%EV -7.92%E -2.46%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-13 21:40
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.12%E -2.63%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -11.35%E -3.66%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-13 21:30
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.12%E -2.63%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -11.35%E -3.66%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-13 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.12%E -2.63%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -11.35%E -3.66%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-13 21:30
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -9.01%E -2.25%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -10.96%E -5.99%K -13.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -7.06%E -2.17%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-13 21:45
MyBookie.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -10.15%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.07%EV -7.07%E -3.70%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -8.49%E -2.65%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 21:39
Betclic (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.85%EV -10.15%E -2.57%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.78%EV -9.99%E -5.40%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.38%EV -9.06%E -2.85%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-13 21:44
Unibet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.65%EV -3.66%E -1.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -4.20%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-13 21:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.77%EV -4.15%E -2.11%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.09%EV -4.20%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-13 21:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.77%EV -4.15%E -2.11%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.09%EV -4.20%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-13 21:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.77%EV -4.15%E -2.11%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.09%EV -4.20%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-13 21:35
Bally Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.13%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.77%EV -4.15%E -2.11%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.09%EV -4.20%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-13 21:35
Winamax (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -6.58%E -3.43%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -4.20%E -1.25%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-13 21:30
LeoVegas🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.14%EV -7.07%E -3.70%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -7.06%E -2.17%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-13 21:35
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -11.29%E -2.89%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.07%E -3.70%K -7.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -14.21%E -4.74%K -7.10%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-13 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -13.56%E -3.57%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.45%EV -5.61%E -2.89%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%EV -7.06%E -2.17%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-13 21:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -13.56%E -3.57%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.45%EV -5.61%E -2.89%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%EV -7.06%E -2.17%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-13 21:35
TABtouch🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -13.56%E -3.57%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.58%EV -6.09%E -3.16%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -7.06%E -2.17%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-13 21:35
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.55%EV -15.84%E -4.28%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.06%EV -6.09%E -3.16%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -8.49%E -2.65%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-13 21:35
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.18%EV -15.84%E -4.28%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -9.01%E -4.82%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -8.49%E -2.65%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-13 21:34
betano_uk🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.18%EV -15.84%E -4.28%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.85%EV -9.01%E -4.82%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -8.49%E -2.65%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-13 21:33
Winamax (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.89%EV -15.84%E -4.28%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.04%EV -10.47%E -5.69%K -12.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -9.92%E -3.15%K -4.61%G +0.000%13.1%2026-11-13 21:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -18.11%E -5.03%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.38%EV -9.99%E -5.40%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -11.35%E -3.66%K -5.40%G +0.000%14.1%2026-11-13 21:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.86%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-11-14 00:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.86%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-11-14 00:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.86%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.21%1.3%2026-11-14 00:30