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SK Sturm Graz v Marseille

2026-10-22 16:45 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SK Sturm Graz (Local)

Prediction 32.21%3.10fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.468%
Kelly -0.695%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.68%32.12%32.21%33.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.882.903.0637.04%34.67%34.48%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marseille (Visit)

Prediction 40.84%2.45fair odd
EV +0.066%
Edge +0.027%
Kelly +0.045%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.31%40.66%40.80%42.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.282.302.4547.62%43.95%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.94%3.71fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -0.833%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.50%27.22%26.98%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.423.6031.25%29.27%29.20%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: SK Sturm Graz (Local): 32.21%; Marseille (Visit): 40.84%; Draw: 26.94%. For Marseille (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.448. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.450, producing a positive expected value of +0.066%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -6.59%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV +0.066%E +0.027%K +0.045%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -13.78%E -4.31%K -6.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 00:10
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.97%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -2.79%E -1.17%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-15 23:54
1xBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.65%EV -1.43%E -0.468%K -0.695%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.22%EV -4.02%E -1.71%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.13%EV -3.81%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-16 00:20
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -3.36%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.89%EV -4.02%E -1.71%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.07%EV -4.35%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-16 01:10
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%EV -6.59%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.60%EV -4.02%E -1.71%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 23:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -6.59%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -4.02%E -1.71%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 23:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.65%EV -2.72%E -0.901%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.20%EV -5.24%E -2.26%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.15%EV -5.15%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-16 00:10
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.20%E -2.88%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 23:55
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.20%E -2.88%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 23:55
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.20%E -2.88%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-16 00:10
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -8.20%E -2.88%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.04%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-15 23:50
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -9.81%E -3.50%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -6.06%E -2.64%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-15 23:55
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -9.81%E -3.50%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.24%EV -6.88%E -3.02%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-16 00:35
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -4.97%E -1.69%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-16 00:04
picklebet_au🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.59%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.10%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.08%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-16 00:00
ReBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 31.27%EV -6.26%E -2.15%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.81%EV -8.92%E -4.00%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 27.92%EV -12.16%E -3.73%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-16 00:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -6.59%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 23:58
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.68%EV -7.23%E -2.51%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.48%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-16 00:09
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.03%E -4.82%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -11.08%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-16 00:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.85%EV -6.59%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.62%EV -12.19%E -5.67%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -12.43%E -3.82%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-15 23:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.00%EV -11.42%E -4.15%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.93%EV -12.19%E -5.67%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.07%EV -12.43%E -3.82%K -5.52%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-16 00:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -6.59%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -14.23%E -6.78%K -12.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -11.08%E -3.36%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-16 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.82I 35.46%NM 31.24%2.16I 46.30%NM 40.79%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%13.5%2026-10-16 00:00
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 32.46%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.61%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.93%14.1%2026-10-16 01:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 28.06%1.10I 90.91%NM 43.88%1.72I 58.14%NM 28.06%107.2%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 28.06%1.10I 90.91%NM 43.88%1.72I 58.14%NM 28.06%107.2%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 28.06%1.10I 90.91%NM 43.88%1.72I 58.14%NM 28.06%107.2%2026-10-16 00:35