La escuela de los momios

SC Braga v SC Freiburg

Inicio: 2026-04-30 19:00 UTC

Final: SC Braga 2–1 SC Freiburg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

SC Braga (Local)

Predicción 38.93%2.57momio equitativo
EV +2.01%
Ventaja +0.766%
Kelly +1.24%
Crecimiento +0.025%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.68%39.10%38.84%43.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.112.342.352.6247.39%42.66%42.55%38.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SC Freiburg (Visitante)

Predicción 30.13%3.32momio equitativo
EV +0.934%
Ventaja +0.279%
Kelly +0.397%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.57%30.08%30.09%31.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.143.103.3534.48%31.83%32.26%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.94%3.23momio equitativo
EV +6.73%
Ventaja +1.95%
Kelly +2.75%
Crecimiento +0.185%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.03%30.82%31.06%33.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.123.153.4536.36%32.00%31.75%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.49%EV -10.45%E -4.54%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18%EV +0.934%E +0.279%K +0.397%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%EV +6.73%E +1.95%K +2.75%G +0.185%2.3%2026-04-24 03:04
Svenska Spel2.30I 43.48%NM 42.49%EV -10.45%E -4.54%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18%EV +0.934%E +0.279%K +0.397%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%EV +6.73%E +1.95%K +2.75%G +0.185%2.3%2026-04-24 03:04
ATG (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.49%EV -10.45%E -4.54%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.18%EV +0.934%E +0.279%K +0.397%G +0.004%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%EV +6.73%E +1.95%K +2.75%G +0.185%2.3%2026-04-24 03:05
Unibet (NL)2.28I 43.86%NM 42.53%EV -11.23%E -4.93%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV +0.934%E +0.279%K +0.397%G +0.004%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.52%EV +5.18%E +1.52%K +2.16%G +0.112%3.1%2026-04-24 03:04
LeoVegas (SE)2.23I 44.84%NM 42.52%EV -13.18%E -5.91%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -2.08%E -0.640%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV +3.64%E +1.09%K +1.55%G +0.056%5.5%2026-04-24 03:04
Unibet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.52%EV -13.18%E -5.91%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -2.08%E -0.640%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV +3.64%E +1.09%K +1.55%G +0.056%5.5%2026-04-24 03:04
Casumo2.23I 44.84%NM 42.52%EV -13.18%E -5.91%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -2.08%E -0.640%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV +3.64%E +1.09%K +1.55%G +0.056%5.5%2026-04-24 03:05
Bally Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 42.52%EV -13.18%E -5.91%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -2.08%E -0.640%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV +3.64%E +1.09%K +1.55%G +0.056%5.5%2026-04-24 03:04
betPARX2.23I 44.84%NM 42.52%EV -13.18%E -5.91%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -2.08%E -0.640%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV +3.64%E +1.09%K +1.55%G +0.056%5.5%2026-04-24 03:04
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -14.34%E -6.52%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -0.573%E -0.174%K -0.249%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV +2.09%E +0.633%K +0.909%G +0.019%6.1%2026-04-23 18:00
Grosvenor2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -14.34%E -6.52%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.08%E -0.640%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV +2.09%E +0.633%K +0.909%G +0.019%6.5%2026-04-24 03:05
TABtouch2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -14.34%E -6.52%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.08%E -0.640%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV +2.09%E +0.633%K +0.909%G +0.019%6.5%2026-04-24 03:04
BetRivers2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -14.34%E -6.52%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -2.08%E -0.640%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV +2.09%E +0.633%K +0.909%G +0.019%6.5%2026-04-24 03:04
PMU (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 42.70%EV -15.12%E -6.94%K -12.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -3.59%E -1.12%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.21%EV +2.09%E +0.633%K +0.909%G +0.019%7.4%2026-04-24 03:04
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -10.45%E -4.54%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV +0.543%E +0.167%K +0.241%G +0.001%6.5%2026-04-23 21:50
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -10.45%E -4.54%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV +0.543%E +0.167%K +0.241%G +0.001%6.5%2026-04-23 21:49
Ladbrokes (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -10.45%E -4.54%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV +0.543%E +0.167%K +0.241%G +0.001%6.5%2026-04-23 21:49
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -10.45%E -4.54%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV +0.543%E +0.167%K +0.241%G +0.001%6.5%2026-04-23 21:49
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -10.45%E -4.54%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV +0.543%E +0.167%K +0.241%G +0.001%6.5%2026-04-23 21:50
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -14.34%E -6.52%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -2.08%E -0.640%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV +0.543%E +0.167%K +0.241%G +0.001%7.0%2026-04-23 17:59
ReBet2.11I 47.39%NM 43.04%EV -17.85%E -8.46%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 28.92%EV -5.39%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.03%EV +0.234%E +0.072%K +0.104%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-16 23:09
Codere (IT)2.41I 41.49%NM 39.52%EV -6.17%E -2.56%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.72%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.76%EV -1.00%E -0.314%K -0.456%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 00:30
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 39.82%EV -7.34%E -3.08%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -1.00%E -0.314%K -0.456%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-24 03:15
SportsBet2.37I 42.19%NM 39.52%EV -7.73%E -3.26%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -1.00%E -0.314%K -0.456%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 22:35
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -10.45%E -4.54%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -11.12%E -3.77%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -1.00%E -0.314%K -0.456%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-24 00:29
Coolbet2.45I 40.82%NM 39.13%EV -4.61%E -1.88%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.43%EV -5.09%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.43%EV -2.55%E -0.810%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-23 21:49
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.11%E -2.66%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -2.55%E -0.810%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 03:20
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.54%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -2.55%E -0.810%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-24 01:50
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -10.45%E -4.54%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -12.62%E -4.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -2.55%E -0.810%K -1.19%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-24 00:29
Virgin Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -17.46%E -8.24%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -2.55%E -0.810%K -1.19%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-24 03:04
LiveScore Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -17.46%E -8.24%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -2.55%E -0.810%K -1.19%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-24 03:05
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02%NM 38.71%EV -7.34%E -3.08%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.77%EV -12.62%E -4.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.53%EV -3.48%E -1.11%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 22:39
1xBet2.56I 39.06%NM 38.47%EV -0.328%E -0.128%K -0.211%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.76%EV -0.271%E -0.082%K -0.117%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.77%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.5%2026-04-24 03:10
theScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -8.50%E -3.62%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-24 00:29
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -16.29%E -7.58%K -14.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 17:59
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -14.34%E -6.52%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -4.10%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-24 00:30
Marathon Bet2.52I 39.68%NM 38.44%EV -1.89%E -0.748%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -2.08%E -0.640%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.76%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 03:04
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 39.42%EV -6.56%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -3.59%E -1.12%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.02%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 21:50
BetUS2.40I 41.67%NM 39.42%EV -6.56%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -3.59%E -1.12%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.02%EV -5.64%E -1.85%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-24 01:43
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 36.79%EV +2.01%E +0.766%K +1.24%G +0.025%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.09%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-23 21:45
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.79%EV +2.01%E +0.766%K +1.24%G +0.025%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.09%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-23 21:50
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.56%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -3.59%E -1.12%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 22:25
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.56%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 22:14
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.56%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 22:15
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.56%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 22:14
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -6.56%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 22:15
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.56%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.19%E -2.40%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-24 00:24
Pinnacle2.51I 39.84%NM 37.96%EV -2.28%E -0.906%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.41%EV -2.38%E -0.735%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.63%EV -9.67%E -3.31%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 01:25
BetOnline.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 37.80%EV -1.89%E -0.748%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.58%EV -2.98%E -0.926%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.62%EV -9.67%E -3.31%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 21:50
LowVig.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 37.80%EV -1.89%E -0.748%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.58%EV -2.98%E -0.926%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.62%EV -9.67%E -3.31%K -5.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 21:50
Caesars2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -6.56%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -3.59%E -1.12%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-24 01:17
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 37.86%EV -7.34%E -3.08%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -12.62%E -4.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.07%EV -10.28%E -3.55%K -5.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 21:48
Bovada2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%EV -3.44%E -1.39%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.40%EV -3.59%E -1.12%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.67%EV -10.90%E -3.79%K -5.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-24 01:12
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -2.66%E -1.07%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -11.83%E -4.15%K -6.40%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 21:50
Suprabets2.42I 41.32%NM 37.89%EV -5.78%E -2.39%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 29.48%EV -6.30%E -2.02%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 32.63%EV -13.07%E -4.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-24 03:07
TAB2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -2.66%E -1.07%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -13.38%E -4.78%K -7.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 21:44
Everygame2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -6.56%E -2.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -6.60%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -13.38%E -4.78%K -7.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-24 03:10
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 38.24%EV -9.67%E -4.17%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%EV -11.12%E -3.77%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.69%EV -13.38%E -4.78%K -7.43%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-24 00:30
Betclic (FR)2.47I 40.49%NM 37.52%EV -3.83%E -1.55%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.78%EV -2.98%E -0.926%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.70%EV -14.93%E -5.43%K -8.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 21:48
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 38.82%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.03%3.0%2026-04-24 02:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 38.46%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%6.6%2026-04-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 38.46%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%6.6%2026-04-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 38.46%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%6.6%2026-04-23 21:50
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 38.38%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.17%7.7%2026-04-23 21:50