Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Salzburg v AC Milan

2026-10-15 16:45 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Salzburg (Local)

Prediction 24.02%4.16fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.315%
Kelly -0.416%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.35%24.14%23.96%25.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.833.804.1128.17%26.11%26.32%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AC Milan (Visit)

Prediction 49.87%2.01fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.32%49.71%49.94%51.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.861.871.9558.82%53.68%53.48%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.11%3.83fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -0.697%
Kelly -0.952%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.52%26.15%26.10%26.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.533.503.7329.41%28.34%28.57%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Salzburg (Local): 24.02%; AC Milan (Visit): 49.87%; Draw: 26.11%. For Salzburg (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.11, with an expected value of -1.29%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.11I 24.33%NM 23.63%EV -1.29%E -0.315%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.33%EV -3.75%E -1.94%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 26.04%EV -2.60%E -0.697%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-22 12:42
Marathon Bet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.63%EV -2.73%E -0.675%K -0.896%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.37%EV -5.25%E -2.76%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.00%EV -3.91%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-22 12:44
Pinnacle🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 23.48%EV -2.97%E -0.736%K -0.978%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.46%EV -6.24%E -3.32%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.06%EV -4.95%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 12:49
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -3.93%E -0.984%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.75%E -2.49%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.99%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-22 13:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -3.93%E -0.984%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.74%E -3.61%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 12:45
betano_uk🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -6.34%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -8.74%E -4.77%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-22 12:44
Bet Victor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -6.34%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -8.74%E -4.77%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-22 12:42
Suprabets🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -7.54%E -1.96%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.12%EV -8.74%E -4.77%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.06%EV -8.08%E -2.30%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-22 12:47
Betr (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -2.75%E -1.41%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -5.99%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 13:58
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.75%E -2.49%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.99%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-22 11:53
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -5.25%E -2.76%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.99%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-22 13:35
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -4.75%E -2.49%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 12:44
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -4.75%E -2.49%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 12:44
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -4.75%E -2.49%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 12:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -4.75%E -2.49%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.61%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-22 12:44
FanDuel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -8.74%E -4.77%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -5.99%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-22 13:35
ReBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -8.74%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.66%EV -8.74%E -4.77%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.42%EV -10.17%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-22 12:44
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -9.94%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -8.24%E -4.48%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -5.99%E -1.67%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-22 12:43
Betclic (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -9.94%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.91%EV -10.73%E -5.99%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-22 12:44
LeoVegas🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.42%EV -11.14%E -3.01%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.38%EV -8.74%E -4.77%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.19%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-22 12:44
Unibet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.45%EV -11.14%E -3.01%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.03%EV -15.22%E -8.95%K -21.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.52%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-22 12:45
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -13.54%E -3.76%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.32%EV -6.74%E -3.61%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-22 12:29
Winamax (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.76%EV -14.74%E -4.15%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.38%EV -11.23%E -6.31%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-22 12:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-22 14:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-22 14:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-22 14:05