La escuela de los momios

Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa

Inicio: 2026-04-30 19:00 UTC

Final: Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aston Villa

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Nottingham Forest (Local)

Predicción 37.27%2.68momio equitativo
EV -0.873%
Ventaja -0.328%
Kelly -0.526%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.10%37.39%37.22%39.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.492.502.6643.48%40.08%40.00%37.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Aston Villa (Visitante)

Predicción 34.13%2.93momio equitativo
EV +0.673%
Ventaja +0.228%
Kelly +0.345%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.53%34.08%34.15%35.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.752.752.9540.00%36.32%36.36%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.61%3.50momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.378%
Kelly -0.532%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.63%28.53%28.63%29.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.053.283.303.4532.79%30.50%30.30%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 38.25%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.06%EV +0.673%E +0.228%K +0.345%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV -2.73%E -0.804%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-23 23:10
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.25%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.06%EV +0.673%E +0.228%K +0.345%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV -2.73%E -0.804%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-23 23:09
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.25%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.06%EV +0.673%E +0.228%K +0.345%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV -2.73%E -0.804%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-23 23:09
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.25%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.06%EV +0.673%E +0.228%K +0.345%G +0.002%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV -2.73%E -0.804%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-23 23:09
Coolbet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -9.82%E -4.06%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.53%EV +0.673%E +0.228%K +0.345%G +0.002%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -1.30%E -0.378%K -0.532%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-17 07:19
1xBet2.66I 37.59%NM 37.00%EV -0.873%E -0.328%K -0.526%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 34.30%EV -2.06%E -0.717%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.70%EV -1.88%E -0.547%K -0.772%G +0.000%1.6%2026-04-22 11:00
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.58%E -3.06%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -2.74%E -0.961%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 23:10
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.58%E -3.06%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -2.74%E -0.961%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 23:09
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.58%E -3.06%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -2.74%E -0.961%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 23:09
LeoVegas (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.58%E -3.06%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -2.74%E -0.961%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 23:09
Bally Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.14%EV -7.58%E -3.06%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -2.74%E -0.961%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 23:10
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -2.74%E -0.961%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 23:09
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -2.74%E -0.961%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 23:09
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -2.74%E -0.961%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 23:10
Marathon Bet2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -2.36%E -0.902%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.28%EV -3.42%E -1.21%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.70%EV -3.31%E -0.978%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-24 01:14
NordicBet2.60I 38.46%NM 37.13%EV -3.11%E -1.20%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.48%EV -4.45%E -1.59%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.39%EV -2.73%E -0.804%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-22 10:29
Betsson2.60I 38.46%NM 37.13%EV -3.11%E -1.20%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.48%EV -4.45%E -1.59%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.39%EV -2.73%E -0.804%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-22 10:30
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.27%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -4.45%E -1.59%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-19 15:20
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -4.45%E -1.59%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 19:01
PMU (FR)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.23%EV -9.44%E -3.89%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.18%EV -4.45%E -1.59%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 23:10
Pinnacle2.58I 38.76%NM 36.95%EV -3.85%E -1.49%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.42%EV -5.47%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.63%EV -4.74%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-22 10:39
BetOnline.ag2.57I 38.91%NM 37.04%EV -4.23%E -1.64%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.37%EV -5.47%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%EV -4.74%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 21:50
LowVig.ag2.57I 38.91%NM 37.04%EV -4.23%E -1.64%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.37%EV -5.47%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%EV -4.74%E -1.42%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 21:50
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -2.73%E -0.804%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 14:00
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 13:55
BetUS2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-20 18:20
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-20 18:10
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-20 18:10
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-20 18:10
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-20 18:10
Caesars2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 08:45
Betclic (FR)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.43%EV -7.58%E -3.06%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.75%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.82%EV -7.88%E -2.45%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-22 19:04
theScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 17:00
Bovada2.55I 39.22%NM 36.83%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.27%EV -6.49%E -2.37%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-22 10:31
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -2.73%E -0.804%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 23:15
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -2.73%E -0.804%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-19 13:54
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 13:55
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 23:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 13:55
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 13:55
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 23:14
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 23:14
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-20 18:10
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 15:20
ReBet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.40%EV -9.44%E -3.89%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 28.94%EV -10.17%E -3.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-16 23:20
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.22%EV -12.43%E -5.29%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.51%EV -9.89%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-23 23:09
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.22%EV -12.43%E -5.29%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.51%EV -9.89%E -3.14%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-23 23:10
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -14.29%E -6.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -7.86%E -2.91%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-20 19:04
Suprabets2.49I 40.16%NM 36.86%EV -7.21%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.37%EV -8.88%E -3.33%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 28.77%EV -8.74%E -2.74%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 12:42
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -9.56%E -3.61%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 12:34
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -9.56%E -3.61%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 19:10
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -9.56%E -3.61%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-19 15:19
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -10.59%E -4.04%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -5.59%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 23:15
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -10.59%E -4.04%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 23:15
TAB2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.84%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -11.27%E -4.33%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.46%E -2.64%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 10:30
BoyleSports2.40I 41.67%NM 37.57%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.68%EV -11.27%E -4.33%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -7.02%E -2.16%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-20 18:10
NetBet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.06%EV -11.27%E -4.33%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -12.75%E -4.18%K -6.22%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-23 14:50
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -14.68%E -5.87%K -9.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -11.32%E -3.65%K -5.39%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 23:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.31%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.27%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-04-24 00:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.64I 37.88%NM 36.53%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.69%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.79%3.7%2026-04-24 02:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.64I 37.88%NM 36.53%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.69%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.79%3.7%2026-04-24 02:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 36.70%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.71%4.0%2026-04-23 21:50
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.67%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%5.3%2026-04-24 02:45