Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juventus v NEC Nijmegen

2026-09-17 19:00 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Juventus (Local)

Prediction 67.08%1.49fair odd
EV -5.42%
Edge -3.84%
Kelly -13.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.99%67.08%67.39%67.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.371.381.4176.34%72.92%72.46%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

NEC Nijmegen (Visit)

Prediction 13.33%7.50fair odd
EV -0.054%
Edge -0.007%
Kelly -0.008%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.52%13.33%13.21%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.806.706.707.5017.24%14.93%14.93%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.59%5.10fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -0.813%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.27%19.59%19.39%21.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.554.504.9023.53%22.00%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Juventus (Local): 67.08%; NEC Nijmegen (Visit): 13.33%; Draw: 19.59%. For NEC Nijmegen (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.504. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 7.500, with an expected value of -0.054%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.40%EV -5.42%E -3.84%K -13.22%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.20%EV -4.05%E -0.563%K -0.653%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.40%EV -3.99%E -0.813%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 21:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.09%E -4.35%K -15.22%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV -3.39%E -0.467%K -0.542%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.98%EV -7.90%E -1.68%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 21:10
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.09%E -4.35%K -15.22%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -0.054%E -0.007%K -0.008%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -9.86%E -2.14%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 21:09
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.99%EV -6.09%E -4.35%K -15.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.93%EV -20.04%E -3.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.08%EV -16.72%E -3.93%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 23:40
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.51%EV -6.76%E -4.86%K -17.33%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -3.39%E -0.467%K -0.542%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -5.94%E -1.24%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 21:10
Suprabets🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.08%EV -6.76%E -4.86%K -17.33%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.51%EV -9.38%E -1.38%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 21:06
ReBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.11%EV -7.43%E -5.38%K -19.56%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.62%EV -10.71%E -1.60%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 21:09
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.53%EV -7.43%E -5.38%K -19.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -13.38%E -2.06%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.55%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 21:09
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.52%EV -8.10%E -5.91%K -21.90%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -6.72%E -0.960%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -5.94%E -1.24%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 21:10
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -8.77%E -6.45%K -24.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -6.72%E -0.960%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -6.92%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 21:10
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.29%EV -8.77%E -6.45%K -24.37%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.21%EV -16.71%E -2.67%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -15.15%E -3.50%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-30 21:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.32%EV -9.44%E -7.00%K -26.98%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.56%EV -12.05%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.12%EV -12.80%E -2.88%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 21:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.74%EV -10.11%E -7.55%K -29.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.68%EV -20.04%E -3.34%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.58%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-30 21:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 64.99%EV -10.79%E -8.11%K -32.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 14.90%EV -22.71%E -3.92%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.10%EV -15.74%E -3.66%K -4.77%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-30 21:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 66.84%EV -12.13%E -9.26%K -39.12%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.27%EV -12.05%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.90%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-30 21:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.