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Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen

2026-10-22 16:45 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dinamo Zagreb (Local)

Prediction 53.37%1.87fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.982%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.24%53.37%53.35%54.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.741.741.8460.61%57.47%57.47%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

NEC Nijmegen (Visit)

Prediction 22.19%4.51fair odd
EV +0.948%
Edge +0.208%
Kelly +0.267%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.04%22.08%22.25%22.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.224.204.5525.64%23.71%23.81%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.45%4.09fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.552%
Kelly -0.736%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.60%24.55%24.40%26.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.773.834.0028.99%26.49%26.14%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Dinamo Zagreb (Local): 53.37%; NEC Nijmegen (Visit): 22.19%; Draw: 24.45%. For NEC Nijmegen (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.51. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.55, producing a positive expected value of +0.948%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.71%EV -6.61%E -3.78%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.04%EV +0.948%E +0.208%K +0.267%G +0.003%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.24%EV -3.43%E -0.868%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 01:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.54%E -3.13%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -0.161%E -0.036%K -0.046%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -7.10%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 00:15
picklebet_au🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -6.61%E -3.78%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -3.93%E -0.908%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -14.43%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-15 23:50
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.93%EV -5.54%E -3.13%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV -4.60%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -2.21%E -0.552%K -0.736%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-16 00:15
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.03%EV -7.14%E -4.11%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%EV -4.60%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-15 23:50
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -5.54%E -3.13%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.60%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.57%EV -10.76%E -2.95%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 23:50
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.75%EV -9.81%E -5.81%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -4.60%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-15 23:50
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.79%EV -1.81%E -0.982%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.80%EV -5.49%E -1.29%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.41%EV -2.70%E -0.678%K -0.905%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-16 00:20
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -3.94%E -2.19%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -2.21%E -0.552%K -0.736%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 23:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.83%EV -3.41%E -1.88%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.40%EV -4.16%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-16 00:10
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.51%EV -5.01%E -2.81%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -2.21%E -0.552%K -0.736%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 23:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -6.61%E -3.78%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -2.21%E -0.552%K -0.736%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-16 00:09
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -7.68%E -4.44%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -7.10%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 23:49
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.16%EV -9.28%E -5.46%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -5.88%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-16 00:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.88%EV -7.14%E -4.11%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -10.76%E -2.95%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-15 23:50
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.24%EV -7.14%E -4.11%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.12%EV -14.92%E -4.29%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-15 23:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.07%EV -10.35%E -6.16%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.23%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.70%EV -15.17%E -4.37%K -6.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-15 23:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.64%EV -11.95%E -7.24%K -18.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.07%EV -6.82%E -1.62%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.29%EV -14.43%E -4.12%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-15 23:50
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.46%EV -7.14%E -4.11%K -9.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -9.04%E -2.20%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 00:10
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -7.68%E -4.44%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -11.25%E -2.81%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -8.32%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-16 00:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.29%EV -10.35%E -6.16%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.24%EV -12.36%E -3.13%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.46%EV -15.65%E -4.54%K -6.39%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-15 23:49
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.85%EV -10.88%E -6.51%K -16.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.63%EV -13.47%E -3.45%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-16 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 51.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.26%13.7%2026-10-15 23:50
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 47.67%2.78I 35.97%NM 28.12%3.23I 30.96%NM 24.20%27.9%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-16 00:35