La escuela de los momios

Celta Vigo v Lyon

Inicio: 2026-03-12 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Celta Vigo (Local)

Predicción 49.86%2.01momio equitativo
EV -0.285%
Ventaja -0.143%
Kelly -0.285%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.65%49.93%49.79%51.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.801.901.912.0055.56%52.61%52.36%50.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Lyon (Visitante)

Predicción 22.64%4.42momio equitativo
EV +4.13%
Ventaja +0.898%
Kelly +1.15%
Crecimiento +0.047%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.89%22.54%22.72%25.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.114.104.6027.78%24.34%24.39%21.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.51%3.64momio equitativo
EV -0.981%
Ventaja -0.273%
Kelly -0.377%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.86%27.52%27.48%29.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.433.453.6030.77%29.11%28.99%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet1.86I 53.76%NM 51.66%EV -7.27%E -3.91%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV +4.13%E +0.898%K +1.15%G +0.047%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV -3.73%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-12 19:50
LowVig.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 49.44%EV -3.78%E -1.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%EV +1.87%E +0.415%K +0.534%G +0.010%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -10.61%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-12 19:35
BetOnline.ag1.93I 51.81%NM 49.44%EV -3.78%E -1.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%EV +1.87%E +0.415%K +0.534%G +0.010%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -10.61%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-12 19:35
Pinnacle1.92I 52.08%NM 50.37%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.46I 22.42%NM 21.68%EV +0.963%E +0.216%K +0.278%G +0.003%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.95%EV -4.83%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-12 19:45
BetUS1.89I 52.91%NM 50.53%EV -5.77%E -3.05%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -0.395%E -0.090%K -0.116%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.76%EV -5.38%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 19:55
Caesars1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -8.76%E -4.79%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -0.395%E -0.090%K -0.116%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-12 19:40
Suprabets1.90I 52.63%NM 49.94%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.91%EV -1.98%E -0.457%K -0.594%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.15%EV -7.31%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 19:44
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 49.85%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.87%EV -1.98%E -0.457%K -0.594%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -7.86%E -2.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 19:35
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -1.98%E -0.457%K -0.594%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-12 19:55
Coolbet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.92%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.29%EV -2.66%E -0.618%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.78%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-12 19:55
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 50.05%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.23%EV -2.66%E -0.618%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.71%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-12 19:45
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -2.66%E -0.618%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-12 19:40
Bovada1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -6.77%E -3.62%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -2.66%E -0.618%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 19:53
PMU (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -2.66%E -0.618%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-12 19:55
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -10.26%E -5.70%K -12.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -2.66%E -0.618%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 19:55
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.47%EV -2.78%E -1.42%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.97%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -3.73%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 19:55
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 49.47%EV -2.78%E -1.42%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.97%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.56%EV -3.73%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-12 19:55
ReBet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.92%EV -3.78%E -1.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.14%EV -2.36%E -0.664%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-12 19:30
theScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.99%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -3.73%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-12 19:30
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-12 19:55
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 19:40
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 19:55
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 19:55
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -7.76%E -4.20%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -4.92%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 19:55
Unibet (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.94%EV -0.285%E -0.143%K -0.285%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.87%EV -7.19%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.19%EV -0.981%E -0.273%K -0.377%G +0.000%2.2%2026-03-12 19:25
ATG (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 48.94%EV -0.285%E -0.143%K -0.285%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.87%EV -7.19%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.19%EV -0.981%E -0.273%K -0.377%G +0.000%2.2%2026-03-12 19:25
Svenska Spel2.00I 50.00%NM 48.94%EV -0.285%E -0.143%K -0.285%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.87%EV -7.19%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.19%EV -0.981%E -0.273%K -0.377%G +0.000%2.2%2026-03-12 19:25
Unibet (NL)1.97I 50.76%NM 49.13%EV -1.78%E -0.904%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV -7.19%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.26%EV -2.36%E -0.664%K -0.924%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-12 19:25
Codere (IT)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.71%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -7.19%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.73%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-12 19:30
Bet Victor1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -6.77%E -3.62%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -7.19%E -1.75%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-12 19:35
Betclic (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.981%E -0.273%K -0.377%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-12 19:54
Parions Sport (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -0.981%E -0.273%K -0.377%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 19:55
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -0.981%E -0.273%K -0.377%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-12 18:55
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.73%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-12 19:45
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.73%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-12 19:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.73%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-12 19:30
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-12 19:25
TAB1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-12 19:55
Sky Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -8.76%E -4.79%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -0.981%E -0.273%K -0.377%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-12 19:55
NetBet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.77%E -3.62%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-12 19:54
PlayUp1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-12 19:55
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.76%E -4.79%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -9.45%E -2.36%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -9.23%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-12 19:55
Unibet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.83%EV -3.78%E -1.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -10.58%E -2.68%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.83%EV -3.78%E -1.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -10.58%E -2.68%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 19:25
Casumo1.93I 51.81%NM 48.83%EV -3.78%E -1.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -10.58%E -2.68%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 19:25
Bally Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 48.83%EV -3.78%E -1.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -10.58%E -2.68%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 19:25
betPARX1.93I 51.81%NM 48.83%EV -3.78%E -1.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -10.58%E -2.68%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-12 19:25
Grosvenor1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -10.58%E -2.68%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 19:25
TABtouch1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -10.58%E -2.68%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 19:25
BetRivers1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -10.58%E -2.68%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 19:25
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 49.07%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -11.71%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-12 19:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.07%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -11.71%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -5.11%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-12 19:30
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 48.42%EV -4.27%E -2.23%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -11.71%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -7.86%E -2.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-12 19:55
Winamax (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 49.79%EV -7.27%E -3.91%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -11.71%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -3.73%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-12 18:55
Fliff1.83I 54.64%NM 49.62%EV -8.76%E -4.79%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -11.71%E -3.00%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -7.86%E -2.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-12 19:55
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 48.62%EV -6.77%E -3.62%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -15.11%E -4.03%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -7.86%E -2.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 19:25
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 48.62%EV -6.77%E -3.62%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -15.11%E -4.03%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -7.86%E -2.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-12 19:25
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -0.285%E -0.143%K -0.285%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -18.50%E -5.14%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.48%E -1.91%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-12 19:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.20%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.21%0.7%2026-03-12 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.20%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.59%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.21%0.7%2026-03-12 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-03-12 19:55
Matchbook1.93I 51.81%NM 51.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.14%0.9%2026-03-12 19:55
Smarkets1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%1.5%2026-03-12 19:55
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.03%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-03-12 19:55