Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bournemouth v SK Sturm Graz

2026-10-15 19:00 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bournemouth (Local)

Prediction 76.42%1.31fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -14.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.69%76.08%76.45%77.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.211.211.2686.96%82.70%82.64%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SK Sturm Graz (Visit)

Prediction 8.43%11.86fair odd
EV +9.59%
Edge +0.737%
Kelly +0.799%
Growth +0.077%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.23%8.74%8.41%10.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.7611.0013.0011.76%9.29%9.09%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.15%6.60fair odd
EV +0.595%
Edge +0.090%
Kelly +0.106%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 6.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.17%15.19%15.14%16.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.116.006.6418.18%16.36%16.67%15.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bournemouth (Local): 76.42%; SK Sturm Graz (Visit): 8.43%; Draw: 15.15%. For SK Sturm Graz (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.86. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 13.00, producing a positive expected value of +9.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.72%EV -7.53%E -6.22%K -35.86%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +9.59%E +0.737%K +0.799%G +0.077%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -5.31%E -0.850%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-22 11:59
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -6.77%E -5.55%K -30.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +1.16%E +0.096%K +0.105%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -1.53%E -0.235%K -0.277%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-22 13:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.00%E -4.88%K -26.10%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV +1.16%E +0.096%K +0.105%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.68%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-22 13:58
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.30%E -6.91%K -41.48%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV +1.16%E +0.096%K +0.105%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-22 13:18
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 77.02%EV -3.71%E -2.94%K -14.27%G +0.000%11.60I 8.62%NM 8.37%EV -2.22%E -0.191%K -0.209%G +0.000%6.64I 15.06%NM 14.62%EV +0.595%E +0.090%K +0.106%G +0.001%3.0%2026-09-22 12:42
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.09%EV -5.24%E -4.22%K -21.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.31%EV -3.06%E -0.266%K -0.291%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.59%EV -0.768%E -0.117%K -0.138%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-22 12:44
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.11%EV -6.00%E -4.88%K -26.10%G +0.000%11.14I 8.98%NM 8.51%EV -6.09%E -0.547%K -0.601%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.37%EV -0.011%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 13:03
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.77%E -5.55%K -30.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -7.27%E -0.661%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-22 12:49
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.77%E -5.55%K -30.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -7.27%E -0.661%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-22 12:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.77%E -5.55%K -30.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -7.27%E -0.661%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-22 12:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -6.77%E -5.55%K -30.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -7.27%E -0.661%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-22 12:49
betano_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -8.30%E -6.91%K -41.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -7.27%E -0.661%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-22 12:39
Bet Victor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -8.30%E -6.91%K -41.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -7.27%E -0.661%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-22 12:38
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -6.77%E -5.55%K -30.76%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -7.27%E -0.661%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -16.68%E -3.03%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-22 12:29
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -9.82%E -8.33%K -54.58%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -7.27%E -0.661%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-22 12:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.07%EV -7.53%E -6.22%K -35.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -15.70%E -1.57%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -5.31%E -0.850%K -1.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-22 12:54
Suprabets🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.98%EV -7.53%E -6.22%K -35.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -15.70%E -1.57%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.83%EV -6.07%E -0.979%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-22 12:52
ReBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.62%EV -8.30%E -6.91%K -41.48%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.26%EV -17.39%E -1.77%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-22 12:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.13%EV -7.53%E -6.22%K -35.86%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -19.92%E -2.10%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -1.53%E -0.235%K -0.277%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-22 12:54
LeoVegas🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.40%EV -8.30%E -6.91%K -41.48%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -19.92%E -2.10%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -9.10%E -1.52%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-22 12:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.52%EV -9.82%E -8.33%K -54.58%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.38%EV -19.92%E -2.10%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.10%EV -10.62%E -1.80%K -2.17%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-22 12:53
Unibet (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 75.80%EV -12.12%E -10.54%K -80.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.18%EV -19.92%E -2.10%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.03%EV -12.13%E -2.09%K -2.53%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-22 12:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 74.69%EV -9.82%E -8.33%K -54.58%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.37%EV -28.35%E -3.34%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.94%EV -10.62%E -1.80%K -2.17%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-22 12:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-22 13:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-22 13:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-22 13:35