The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Shakhtar Donetsk v AZ Alkmaar

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Shakhtar Donetsk (Local)

Prediction 45.70%2.19fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.02%45.61%45.74%46.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.062.052.1250.00%48.54%48.78%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AZ Alkmaar (Visit)

Prediction 26.33%3.80fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.339%
Kelly -0.462%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.70%26.39%26.25%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.503.7530.30%28.39%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.97%3.57fair odd
EV -0.697%
Edge -0.196%
Kelly -0.273%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.00%28.00%28.01%28.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.363.403.5532.26%29.79%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shakhtar Donetsk (Local): 45.70%; AZ Alkmaar (Visit): 26.33%; Draw: 27.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -0.697%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.57%EV -3.12%E -1.47%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.60%EV -2.10%E -0.599%K -0.838%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.57%EV -3.12%E -1.47%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.60%EV -2.10%E -0.599%K -0.838%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.21%EV -3.12%E -1.47%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.78%EV -9.17%E -2.66%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.00%EV -0.697%E -0.196%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.02%EV -3.12%E -1.47%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -10.49%E -3.08%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.54%EV -8.53%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 18:34
Pinnacle🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.80%EV -3.57%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.26%EV -3.11%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.93%EV -3.21%E -0.929%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.92%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.72%EV -1.27%E -0.339%K -0.462%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.36%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-09 18:55
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -3.90%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.16%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Suprabets🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.11%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.61%EV -6.27%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -6.29%E -1.88%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -10.49%E -3.08%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -2.10%E -0.599%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:55
ReBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.94%EV -4.49%E -2.15%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.31%EV -3.90%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.75%EV -3.21%E -0.929%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.94%E -2.38%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -6.54%E -1.84%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -3.49%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 18:55
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.94%E -2.38%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -6.54%E -1.84%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -3.49%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 18:55
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.86%E -2.84%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.89%EV -7.06%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.04%EV -1.82%E -0.517%K -0.724%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.20%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -3.90%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:55
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:55
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.80%E -3.52%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-09 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -13.12%E -3.98%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -13.12%E -3.98%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:55
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -10.49%E -3.08%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.49%E -3.28%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.71%EV -6.77%E -3.32%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.20%EV -6.27%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -7.13%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 18:55
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -7.69%E -3.81%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-09 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -7.69%E -3.81%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -9.17%E -2.66%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-09 18:54
Bovada🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.80%EV -8.14%E -4.05%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 18:54
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 18:55
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 18:54
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 18:55
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 18:55
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.12%E -3.98%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.28%E -4.29%K -6.33%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-09 18:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%0.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%0.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%0.5%2026-04-09 18:55