L’École des cotes

Shakhtar Donetsk v AZ Alkmaar

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-09 19:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

39 opérateurs (16 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Shakhtar Donetsk (Local)

Prévision 45.70%2.19cote équitable
EV -3.12%
Avantage -1.47%
Kelly -2.78%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.12

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
44.02%45.61%45.74%46.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.062.052.1250.00%48.54%48.78%47.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

AZ Alkmaar (Visiteur)

Prévision 26.33%3.80cote équitable
EV -1.27%
Avantage -0.339%
Kelly -0.462%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.75

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.70%26.39%26.25%27.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.303.523.503.7530.30%28.39%28.57%26.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.97%3.57cote équitable
EV -0.697%
Avantage -0.196%
Kelly -0.273%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.00%28.00%28.01%28.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.363.403.5532.26%29.79%29.41%28.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (39 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
LowVig.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 45.57%EV -3.12%E -1.47%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.60%EV -2.10%E -0.599%K -0.838%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
BetOnline.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 45.57%EV -3.12%E -1.47%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.60%EV -2.10%E -0.599%K -0.838%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (NL)2.12I 47.17%NM 45.21%EV -3.12%E -1.47%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.78%EV -9.17%E -2.66%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.00%EV -0.697%E -0.196%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Betclic (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 44.02%EV -3.12%E -1.47%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -10.49%E -3.08%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.54%EV -8.53%E -2.61%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 18:34
Pinnacle2.11I 47.39%NM 45.80%EV -3.57%E -1.69%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.26%EV -3.11%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.93%EV -3.21%E -0.929%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.92%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.72%EV -1.27%E -0.339%K -0.462%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.36%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-09 18:55
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.24%EV -3.90%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.16%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Suprabets2.10I 47.62%NM 45.11%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.61%EV -6.27%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -6.29%E -1.88%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -10.49%E -3.08%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -2.10%E -0.599%K -0.838%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 18:55
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -4.03%E -1.92%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-09 18:55
ReBet2.09I 47.85%NM 45.94%EV -4.49%E -2.15%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.31%EV -3.90%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.75%EV -3.21%E -0.929%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-09 18:55
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.94%E -2.38%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -6.54%E -1.84%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -3.49%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 18:55
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.94%E -2.38%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -6.54%E -1.84%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -3.49%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 18:55
1xBet2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.86%E -2.84%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.89%EV -7.06%E -2.00%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.04%EV -1.82%E -0.517%K -0.724%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Everygame2.05I 48.78%NM 46.20%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -3.90%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:55
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 18:55
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 18:55
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-09 18:55
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -11.80%E -3.52%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-09 18:55
LiveScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -13.12%E -3.98%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Virgin Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -13.12%E -3.98%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-09 18:55
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -6.32%E -3.08%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -10.49%E -3.08%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -10.49%E -3.28%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-09 18:55
Marathon Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 45.71%EV -6.77%E -3.32%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.20%EV -6.27%E -1.76%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -7.13%E -2.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 18:55
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -7.69%E -3.81%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-09 18:55
NetBet (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.50%EV -7.69%E -3.81%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -9.17%E -2.66%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-09 18:54
Bovada2.01I 49.75%NM 45.80%EV -8.14%E -4.05%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 18:54
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.89%E -1.44%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-09 18:55
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.22%E -1.45%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 18:54
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.69%E -2.33%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 18:55
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 18:55
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 18:55
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.85%E -2.24%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.09%E -2.80%K -4.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-09 18:55
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -8.60%E -4.30%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.12%E -3.98%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.28%E -4.29%K -6.33%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-09 18:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%0.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%0.5%2026-04-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%0.5%2026-04-09 18:55