The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Riga FC v FC Kairat

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 16:45 UTC

Final: Riga FC 1–1 FC Kairat

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Riga FC (Local)

Prediction 50.07%2.00fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.951%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.07%50.14%50.04%52.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.851.851.9658.82%53.93%54.05%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Kairat (Visit)

Prediction 22.87%4.37fair odd
EV +3.15%
Edge +0.699%
Kelly +0.898%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 4.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.04%22.82%22.85%23.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.064.004.5126.32%24.61%25.00%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.06%3.70fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -0.718%
Kelly -0.995%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.21%27.05%27.12%27.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.403.6031.25%29.16%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Riga FC (Local): 50.07%; FC Kairat (Visit): 22.87%; Draw: 27.06%. For FC Kairat (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.51, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.15%EV -8.87%E -4.88%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.04%EV +3.15%E +0.699%K +0.898%G +0.028%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.81%EV -4.21%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.16%EV -6.87%E -3.69%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.88%EV -0.509%E -0.117%K -0.152%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.96%EV -4.48%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.16%EV -6.87%E -3.69%K -7.99%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.88%EV -0.509%E -0.117%K -0.152%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.96%EV -4.48%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:30
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.73%EV -5.37%E -2.84%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.19%EV -1.20%E -0.277%K -0.360%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.08%EV -4.21%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 16:40
SportsBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.45%EV -5.87%E -3.12%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -1.65%E -0.384%K -0.501%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -6.64%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 16:30
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.37%E -4.58%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -1.65%E -0.384%K -0.501%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 16:30
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.99%EV -4.37%E -2.29%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -3.94%E -0.938%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 16:20
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.71%EV -6.37%E -3.41%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -3.94%E -0.938%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -3.94%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 16:15
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -3.94%E -0.938%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 16:30
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -3.94%E -0.938%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -3.94%E -0.938%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 16:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -3.94%E -0.938%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 16:20
ReBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.07%EV -1.86%E -0.951%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.46%EV -6.23%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.48%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 15:50
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -6.37%E -3.41%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -6.23%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.64%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-15 16:40
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.23%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 16:20
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.23%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 16:19
Coolbet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.67%EV -3.87%E -2.01%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-15 16:25
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.37%E -2.29%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:20
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.06%EV -5.37%E -2.84%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-15 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.20%EV -5.87%E -3.12%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -2.59%E -0.718%K -0.995%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 16:30
picklebet_au🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -4.87%E -2.56%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-15 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -5.87%E -3.12%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.29%E -1.51%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-15 16:20
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-15 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-15 16:15
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-15 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-15 16:20
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.37%E -4.58%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:20
PlayUp🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.84%EV -8.87%E -4.88%K -10.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-15 16:35
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.88%E -5.49%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -8.51%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-15 16:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.45%EV -5.87%E -3.12%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.36%EV -8.97%E -2.25%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.19%EV -7.46%E -2.18%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-30 12:29
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -5.87%E -3.12%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -9.66%E -2.44%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -6.64%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 16:20
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -5.87%E -3.12%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -9.66%E -2.44%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV -6.64%E -1.93%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 16:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.04%EV -9.38%E -5.18%K -11.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.93%EV -9.66%E -2.44%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -9.35%E -2.79%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 16:20
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -8.37%E -4.58%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -10.80%E -2.77%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-15 16:20
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -9.88%E -5.49%K -12.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -10.80%E -2.77%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -13.41%E -4.19%K -6.10%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-15 16:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.25%EV -14.88%E -8.75%K -21.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.34%EV -10.80%E -2.77%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.40%EV -10.70%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-15 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.16%EV -7.37%E -3.99%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.44%EV -11.26%E -2.90%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.40%EV -10.16%E -3.06%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.65%EV -8.87%E -4.88%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -13.09%E -3.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.65%EV -8.87%E -4.88%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -13.09%E -3.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.65%EV -8.87%E -4.88%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -13.09%E -3.44%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.00%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.44%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.36%0.1%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.57%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.14%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.70%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-10-15 16:30