L’École des cotes

Rayo Vallecano v Strasbourg

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-30 19:00 UTC

Score final : Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Strasbourg

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

38 opérateurs (15 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Prévision 46.33%2.16cote équitable
EV +1.93%
Avantage +0.876%
Kelly +1.61%
Croissance +0.031%

avec la cote maximale 2.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
41.32%46.32%46.31%47.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.912.022.012.2052.36%49.60%49.75%45.45%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Strasbourg (Visiteur)

Prévision 25.56%3.91cote équitable
EV -1.59%
Avantage -0.413%
Kelly -0.558%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.87%25.57%25.56%29.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.043.623.603.8532.89%27.66%27.74%25.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 28.11%3.56cote équitable
EV -0.214%
Avantage -0.060%
Kelly -0.084%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.55

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.18%28.11%28.12%29.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.303.323.5532.26%30.30%30.12%28.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (38 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
ReBet2.20I 45.45%NM 41.32%EV +1.93%E +0.876%K +1.61%G +0.031%3.04I 32.89%NM 29.91%EV -22.29%E -7.33%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 28.77%EV -11.18%E -3.54%K -5.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-16 23:19
1xBet2.10I 47.62%NM 46.18%EV -2.71%E -1.29%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.46%EV -2.61%E -0.686%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.36%EV -3.87%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 17:35
Marathon Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.63%E -1.75%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.45%EV -3.38%E -0.894%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.30%EV -4.43%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-24 01:04
Coolbet2.08I 48.08%NM 46.16%EV -3.63%E -1.75%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.15%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.24%EV -4.43%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-17 09:12
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.81%EV -3.63%E -1.75%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -5.42%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -5.84%E -1.74%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 06:50
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 45.81%EV -3.63%E -1.75%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -5.42%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -5.84%E -1.74%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 06:49
Pinnacle2.06I 48.54%NM 46.23%EV -4.56%E -2.21%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.26%EV -3.63%E -0.964%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.51%EV -6.12%E -1.83%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 17:40
LowVig.ag2.06I 48.54%NM 46.22%EV -4.56%E -2.21%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -2.36%E -0.617%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -7.24%E -2.19%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 16:30
BetOnline.ag2.06I 48.54%NM 46.22%EV -4.56%E -2.21%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -2.36%E -0.617%K -0.836%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -7.24%E -2.19%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 16:39
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -5.42%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -4.43%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-20 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -5.42%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -4.43%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-20 03:50
betfred_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.43%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-17 11:04
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.43%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 11:05
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -5.84%E -1.74%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 19:24
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -5.02%E -2.45%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.05%E -3.14%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 19:09
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.76%EV -6.41%E -3.17%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.06%EV -1.59%E -0.413%K -0.558%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -0.214%E -0.060%K -0.084%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-21 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -6.41%E -3.17%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -5.84%E -1.74%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 03:50
Neds2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -6.41%E -3.17%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -5.84%E -1.74%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 03:50
Unibet (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -6.41%E -3.17%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -5.84%E -1.74%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 19:01
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -7.34%E -3.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.87%E -0.755%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.43%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-17 10:19
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -7.34%E -3.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -5.42%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.24%E -2.19%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 10:44
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.34%E -3.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.43%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-17 11:04
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -7.34%E -3.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -10.05%E -3.14%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 19:05
Suprabets2.00I 50.00%NM 45.89%EV -7.34%E -3.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.43%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -10.05%E -3.14%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 21:51
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.34%E -3.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.86%E -4.15%K -6.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 09:54
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.34%E -3.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.86%E -4.15%K -6.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 09:53
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.34%E -3.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.86%E -4.15%K -6.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 09:54
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -7.34%E -3.67%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.86%E -4.15%K -6.13%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 09:54
Unibet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -8.27%E -4.17%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -2.87%E -0.755%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.39%EV -3.02%E -0.877%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 13:40
BetMGM1.98I 50.51%NM 45.98%EV -8.27%E -4.17%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -8.65%E -2.66%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-20 03:50
Betclic (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.25%EV -9.19%E -4.69%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.51%EV -7.21%E -1.99%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -4.43%E -1.30%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-22 19:05
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -9.66%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -7.98%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.24%E -2.19%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 17:34
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.66%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.24%E -2.19%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-17 13:15
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 44.67%EV -9.66%E -4.95%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.22%EV -18.20%E -5.69%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.10%EV -12.86%E -4.15%K -6.13%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-17 11:04
Unibet (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 45.94%EV -10.12%E -5.22%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.09%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -10.05%E -3.14%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-17 10:39
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 47.57%EV -11.51%E -6.03%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -7.24%E -2.19%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-21 13:40
LiveScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 47.57%EV -11.51%E -6.03%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -6.70%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -7.24%E -2.19%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-21 13:40
NetBet (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 46.30%EV -11.51%E -6.03%K -12.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -11.81%E -3.42%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.07%EV -11.46%E -3.64%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 22:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%4.6%2026-04-23 21:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%4.6%2026-04-23 21:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%4.6%2026-04-23 21:04