The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Lugano v Red Star Belgrade

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 16:45 UTC

Final: FC Lugano 3–2 Red Star Belgrade

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lugano (Local)

Prediction 45.06%2.22fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.605%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.11%45.00%44.92%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.082.082.1950.00%48.19%48.08%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Red Star Belgrade (Visit)

Prediction 28.99%3.45fair odd
EV -0.278%
Edge -0.081%
Kelly -0.114%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.81%29.01%29.07%37.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.253.183.203.4444.44%31.46%31.25%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.95%3.85fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.361%
Kelly -0.490%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.46%25.99%26.01%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.543.553.8031.25%28.25%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Lugano (Local): 45.06%; Red Star Belgrade (Visit): 28.99%; Draw: 25.95%. For Red Star Belgrade (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.44, with an expected value of -0.278%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ReBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -1.33%E -0.605%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.20%EV -7.82%E -2.46%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV -3.97%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 15:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -3.13%E -1.45%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.86%E -2.21%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 16:40
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -3.13%E -1.45%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.86%E -2.21%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 16:39
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.89%EV -4.48%E -2.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.74%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -2.67%E -0.712%K -0.971%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 16:39
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -4.48%E -2.11%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.56%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 16:40
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.82%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.97%EV -0.278%E -0.081%K -0.114%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.22%EV -4.75%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-15 16:40
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.73%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.67%EV -2.89%E -0.862%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.61%EV -2.67%E -0.712%K -0.971%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 16:40
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -1.44%E -0.423%K -0.599%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -6.56%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 16:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.36%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.58%EV -6.66%E -2.07%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -1.37%E -0.361%K -0.490%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 16:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.36%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.58%EV -6.66%E -2.07%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -1.37%E -0.361%K -0.490%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 16:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.56%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-15 16:40
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.56%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-15 16:40
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -8.69%E -2.76%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.56%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 16:39
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 16:40
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 16:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 16:39
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.11%EV -5.38%E -2.56%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 37.43%EV -34.78%E -15.46%K -27.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.46%EV -2.67%E -0.712%K -0.971%G +0.000%18.7%2026-10-15 16:39
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -6.28%E -3.02%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -2.89%E -0.862%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 16:40
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -6.28%E -3.02%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -2.89%E -0.862%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.69%EV -6.28%E -3.02%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.26%EV -8.12%E -2.29%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-15 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.80%EV -6.28%E -3.02%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.89%EV -14.48%E -4.91%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.56%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-15 16:39
SportsBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.79%EV -6.73%E -3.25%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.88%EV -1.44%E -0.423%K -0.599%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.56%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.72%EV -6.73%E -3.25%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -11.58%E -3.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-15 16:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.72%EV -6.73%E -3.25%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -11.58%E -3.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-15 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.72%EV -6.73%E -3.25%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -11.58%E -3.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-15 16:40
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -7.18%E -3.49%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.08%EV -2.02%E -0.597%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.86%EV -4.75%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 16:40
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.34%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.56%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-15 16:40
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -4.34%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.56%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-15 16:40
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -5.79%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -6.56%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 16:40
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.34%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.16%E -2.62%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.34%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.16%E -2.62%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.34%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.16%E -2.62%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 16:40
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.16%E -2.62%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -11.58%E -3.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -9.16%E -2.62%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-15 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.60%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -15.93%E -5.49%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.29%EV -16.95%E -5.30%K -7.70%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-15 16:40
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.76%EV -8.99%E -4.45%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.99%EV -13.05%E -3.90%K -5.55%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 16:39
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.89%E -4.94%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.79%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -3.97%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-15 16:38
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.89%E -4.94%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.79%E -1.78%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -3.97%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-15 16:38
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.89%E -4.94%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 16:39
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.89%E -4.94%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -7.24%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.76%E -3.46%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 16:35
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.89%E -4.94%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.13%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -14.35%E -4.35%K -6.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-15 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%0.8%2026-10-15 16:40