Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Atalanta BC v Pafos FC

Início: 2026-10-15 19:00 UTC

Final: Atalanta BC 3–1 Pafos FC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

42 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Atalanta BC (Local)

Previsão 70.29%1.42odd justa
EV -4.40%
Vantagem -3.24%
Kelly -12.23%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.36

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
68.06%70.22%70.38%72.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.251.321.331.3680.00%75.51%75.19%73.53%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Pafos FC (Visitante)

Previsão 11.95%8.37odd justa
EV +7.59%
Vantagem +0.843%
Kelly +0.949%
Crescimento +0.072%

pressupondo odds máximas de 9.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
10.72%11.99%11.80%13.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.507.797.959.0015.38%12.84%12.58%11.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 17.75%5.63odd justa
EV +2.09%
Vantagem +0.364%
Kelly +0.440%
Crescimento +0.009%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
16.55%17.79%17.82%19.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.705.225.255.7521.28%19.17%19.05%17.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Atalanta BC (Local): 70.29%; Pafos FC (Visitante): 11.95%; Empate: 17.75%. Para Pafos FC (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 8.37. 9 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 9.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +7.59%.

Odds das casas de apostas (42 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (NL)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.51%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.72%EV +7.59%E +0.843%K +0.949%G +0.072%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.77%EV +2.09%E +0.364%K +0.440%G +0.009%3.7%2026-10-15 18:50
Coolbet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.59%EV -5.81%E -4.34%K -17.09%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.96%EV +4.60%E +0.526%K +0.594%G +0.027%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.44%EV -2.35%E -0.427%K -0.522%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-15 18:15
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +1.61%E +0.190%K +0.215%G +0.003%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.35%E -0.427%K -0.522%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 18:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +1.61%E +0.190%K +0.215%G +0.003%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.35%E -0.427%K -0.522%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +1.61%E +0.190%K +0.215%G +0.003%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.35%E -0.427%K -0.522%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 18:30
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.67%EV -7.22%E -5.47%K -22.55%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.13%EV +1.61%E +0.190%K +0.215%G +0.003%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -2.35%E -0.427%K -0.522%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-15 18:50
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.04%EV -7.92%E -6.04%K -25.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV +1.61%E +0.190%K +0.215%G +0.003%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -0.573%E -0.102%K -0.125%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 18:53
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.93%EV -5.11%E -3.78%K -14.59%G +0.000%8.49I 11.78%NM 11.28%EV +1.49%E +0.176%K +0.199%G +0.003%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.80%EV -4.48%E -0.833%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 18:55
1xBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.78%EV -5.81%E -4.34%K -17.09%G +0.000%8.45I 11.83%NM 11.22%EV +1.01%E +0.120%K +0.136%G +0.001%5.27I 18.98%NM 18.00%EV -6.43%E -1.22%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 18:55
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.06%EV -7.92%E -6.04%K -25.54%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.21%EV -0.779%E -0.094%K -0.107%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -6.79%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 18:45
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.06%EV -7.92%E -6.04%K -25.54%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.21%EV -0.779%E -0.094%K -0.107%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -6.79%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 18:45
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.56%EV -4.40%E -3.24%K -12.23%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -4.37%E -0.546%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.45%EV -2.35%E -0.427%K -0.522%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-15 18:25
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -4.37%E -0.546%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -6.79%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 18:53
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -4.37%E -0.546%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -6.79%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 18:54
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -7.22%E -5.47%K -22.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -4.37%E -0.546%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -6.79%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-15 18:15
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.86%EV -9.32%E -7.23%K -32.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -4.37%E -0.546%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -0.573%E -0.102%K -0.125%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-15 18:55
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.92%EV -8.62%E -6.63%K -28.74%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -4.37%E -0.546%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.56%EV -6.79%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-15 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.71%EV -9.32%E -7.23%K -32.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -4.37%E -0.546%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -9.45%E -1.85%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.71%EV -9.32%E -7.23%K -32.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -4.37%E -0.546%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -9.45%E -1.85%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.71%EV -9.32%E -7.23%K -32.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -4.37%E -0.546%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.89%EV -9.45%E -1.85%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-15 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -12.14%E -9.71%K -48.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -4.37%E -0.546%K -0.624%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -11.23%E -2.25%K -2.81%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-15 18:50
ReBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.67%EV -4.40%E -3.24%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.17%EV -5.56%E -0.704%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -0.573%E -0.102%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-15 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.85%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.76%EV -5.56%E -0.704%K -0.806%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.40%EV -10.34%E -2.05%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-15 18:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.29%EV -8.62%E -6.63%K -28.74%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.79%EV -7.35%E -0.949%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.92%EV -9.45%E -1.85%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-15 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.31%EV -5.81%E -4.34%K -17.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.56%EV -10.34%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -2.35%E -0.427%K -0.522%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 18:45
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.58%EV -5.11%E -3.78%K -14.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -10.34%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -6.79%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-15 18:44
picklebet_au🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -10.34%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -2.35%E -0.427%K -0.522%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 18:45
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -4.40%E -3.24%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -10.34%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -14.78%E -3.08%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -4.40%E -3.24%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -10.34%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -14.78%E -3.08%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 18:20
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -4.40%E -3.24%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -10.34%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -14.78%E -3.08%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -4.40%E -3.24%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -10.34%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -14.78%E -3.08%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-15 18:20
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.78%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -10.34%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -7.67%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-15 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.99%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.66%EV -13.33%E -1.84%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -11.23%E -2.25%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-15 18:50
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.23%EV -16.32%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.15%EV -4.12%E -0.764%K -0.937%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-15 18:45
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -16.32%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -11.23%E -2.25%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -16.32%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -11.23%E -2.25%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -16.32%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -11.23%E -2.25%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 18:49
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -16.32%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -11.23%E -2.25%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 18:49
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%EV -7.92%E -6.04%K -25.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -16.32%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.37%EV -6.79%E -1.29%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-15 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.32%E -7.23%K -32.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -16.32%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -11.23%E -2.25%K -2.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-15 18:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.43%EV -6.51%E -4.90%K -19.74%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.19%EV -17.52%E -2.54%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.39%EV -12.11%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 18:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.06%EV -10.03%E -7.83%K -35.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.40%EV -22.30%E -3.43%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.54%EV -16.55%E -3.52%K -4.47%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-15 18:54
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (3)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.57%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.58%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.85%0.6%2026-10-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.57%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.58%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.85%0.6%2026-10-15 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.57%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.58%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.85%0.6%2026-10-15 18:55