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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Ajax v FC Thun

2026-11-26 17:45 UTC — UEFA Europa Conference League

胜负盘

24 家博彩公司 (7 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Ajax (主队)

预测 75.66%1.32公平赔率
EV -3.15%
优势 -2.46%
Kelly -11.26%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.28

博彩公司预测分布
72.74%76.05%75.19%80.87%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.131.221.231.2888.50%81.91%81.30%78.13%最小值均值中位数最大值

FC Thun (客队)

预测 8.53%11.72公平赔率
EV +45.05%
优势 +2.65%
Kelly +2.82%
增长率 +1.27%

假设最高赔率为 17.00

博彩公司预测分布
5.61%8.25%8.73%10.10%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
9.0011.1510.5017.0011.11%8.97%9.52%5.88%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 15.81%6.33公平赔率
EV +7.64%
优势 +1.12%
Kelly +1.31%
增长率 +0.100%

假设最高赔率为 6.81

博彩公司预测分布
13.42%15.70%16.08%17.39%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
5.005.755.676.8120.00%17.38%17.62%14.68%最小值均值中位数最大值

对于胜负盘，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)估计各选项的概率为：Ajax (主队)：75.66%；FC Thun (客队)：8.53%；平局：15.81%。 对于“FC Thun (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为11.72。 有5家博彩公司提供高于该水平的赔率；当前最佳赔率为17.00，由此产生+45.05%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (24 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.15%EV -9.96%E -8.37%K -52.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +45.05%E +2.65%K +2.82%G +1.27%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.24%EV +5.90%E +0.881%K +1.04%G +0.061%4.8%2026-11-13 23:54
Betsson🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.84%EV -10.72%E -9.08%K -59.55%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV +36.52%E +2.28%K +2.43%G +0.889%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.27%EV +4.32%E +0.655%K +0.772%G +0.033%6.1%2026-11-13 23:55
1xBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.87%EV -14.50%E -12.83%K -111.56%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.71%EV +36.52%E +2.28%K +2.43%G +0.889%6.81I 14.68%NM 13.42%EV +7.64%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.100%9.4%2026-11-13 23:55
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.69%E -6.31%K -34.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +2.39%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -5.16%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 23:58
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -9.21%E -7.67%K -46.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +2.39%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +2.74%E +0.422%K +0.498%G +0.014%7.1%2026-11-13 23:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.57%EV -6.94%E -5.64%K -30.16%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.26%EV -4.01%E -0.357%K -0.391%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -9.11%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-13 23:55
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -5.16%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-13 23:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -5.16%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-13 23:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.18%E -4.98%K -25.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.16%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-13 23:55
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.18%E -4.98%K -25.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.16%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-13 23:55
Casumo🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-13 23:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.58%EV -6.94%E -5.64%K -30.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -10.41%E -0.992%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-13 23:54
picklebet_au🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -7.69%E -6.31%K -34.97%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -10.41%E -0.992%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-13 23:54
ReBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.27%EV -7.69%E -6.31%K -34.97%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.63%EV -10.41%E -0.992%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.10%EV -16.23%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-13 23:54
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.72%EV -3.15%E -2.46%K -11.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -11.49%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-13 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.72%EV -3.15%E -2.46%K -11.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -11.49%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-13 23:55
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.65%EV -6.18%E -4.98%K -25.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -9.11%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-13 23:55
theScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -9.21%E -7.67%K -46.03%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -9.11%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-13 23:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 74.59%EV -10.72%E -9.08%K -59.55%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.61%EV -16.23%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%13.6%2026-11-13 23:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 74.52%EV -13.75%E -12.06%K -98.18%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.49%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.99%EV -20.97%E -4.19%K -5.24%G +0.000%17.7%2026-11-13 23:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 73.69%EV -10.72%E -9.08%K -59.55%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 8.92%EV -16.81%E -1.72%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.39%EV -20.97%E -4.19%K -5.24%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-13 23:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.74%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -23.21%E -2.58%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -16.23%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-13 23:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.74%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -23.21%E -2.58%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -16.23%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-13 23:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.74%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -23.21%E -2.58%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -16.23%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-13 23:55
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

套利（24 种组合） +1.33%Unibet 1.28 (79.2%) / NordicBet 17.00 (6.0%) / 1xBet 6.81 (14.9%)显示全部 24 种组合
Ajax (主队)FC Thun (客队)平局利润率
Unibet🎯 1.28 (79.2%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (6.0%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.9%)+1.33%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (79.2%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (6.0%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.9%)+1.33%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (79.0%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.1%)+1.08%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (79.0%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.1%)+1.08%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.9%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.8%)+0.950%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.9%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.8%)+0.950%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.9%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.8%)+0.950%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.9%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.8%)+0.950%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.8%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.3%)+0.848%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.8%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.3%)+0.848%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.7%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.0%)+0.705%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.7%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.0%)+0.705%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.7%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.0%)+0.705%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.7%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.0%)+0.705%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.6%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.5%)+0.612%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.6%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.5%)+0.612%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.5%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.2%)+0.476%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.5%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.2%)+0.476%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.5%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.2%)+0.476%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.5%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.2%)+0.476%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.3%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.4%)+0.241%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.3%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.4%)+0.241%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.3%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.4%)+0.241%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.3%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.4%)+0.241%

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