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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Ajax v FC Thun

2026-11-26 17:45 UTC — UEFA Europa Conference League

Resultado del partido

24 corredores (7 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Ajax (Local)

Predicción 75.66%1.32momio equitativo
EV -3.15%
Ventaja -2.46%
Kelly -11.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.74%76.05%75.19%80.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.131.221.231.2888.50%81.91%81.30%78.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Thun (Visitante)

Predicción 8.53%11.72momio equitativo
EV +45.05%
Ventaja +2.65%
Kelly +2.82%
Crecimiento +1.27%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 17.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
5.61%8.25%8.73%10.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
9.0011.1510.5017.0011.11%8.97%9.52%5.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 15.81%6.33momio equitativo
EV +7.64%
Ventaja +1.12%
Kelly +1.31%
Crecimiento +0.100%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.42%15.70%16.08%17.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.755.676.8120.00%17.38%17.62%14.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Ajax (Local): 75.66%; FC Thun (Visitante): 8.53%; Empate: 15.81%. Para FC Thun (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 11.72. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 17.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +45.05%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (24 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.15%EV -9.96%E -8.37%K -52.44%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +45.05%E +2.65%K +2.82%G +1.27%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.24%EV +5.90%E +0.881%K +1.04%G +0.061%4.8%2026-11-13 23:54
Betsson🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.84%EV -10.72%E -9.08%K -59.55%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.89%EV +36.52%E +2.28%K +2.43%G +0.889%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.27%EV +4.32%E +0.655%K +0.772%G +0.033%6.1%2026-11-13 23:55
1xBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.87%EV -14.50%E -12.83%K -111.56%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.71%EV +36.52%E +2.28%K +2.43%G +0.889%6.81I 14.68%NM 13.42%EV +7.64%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.100%9.4%2026-11-13 23:55
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.69%E -6.31%K -34.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV +2.39%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -5.16%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-13 23:58
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -9.21%E -7.67%K -46.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +2.39%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +2.74%E +0.422%K +0.498%G +0.014%7.1%2026-11-13 23:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.57%EV -6.94%E -5.64%K -30.16%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.26%EV -4.01%E -0.357%K -0.391%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -9.11%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-13 23:55
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -5.16%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-13 23:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -5.16%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-13 23:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.18%E -4.98%K -25.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.16%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-13 23:55
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -6.18%E -4.98%K -25.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -5.16%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-13 23:55
Casumo🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -6.15%E -0.559%K -0.615%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-11-13 23:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.58%EV -6.94%E -5.64%K -30.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -10.41%E -0.992%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-13 23:54
picklebet_au🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -7.69%E -6.31%K -34.97%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -10.41%E -0.992%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-13 23:54
ReBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.27%EV -7.69%E -6.31%K -34.97%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.63%EV -10.41%E -0.992%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.10%EV -16.23%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-13 23:54
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.72%EV -3.15%E -2.46%K -11.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -11.49%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-13 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.72%EV -3.15%E -2.46%K -11.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -11.49%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-13 23:55
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.65%EV -6.18%E -4.98%K -25.75%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -9.11%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-13 23:55
theScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.26%EV -9.21%E -7.67%K -46.03%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.71%EV -9.11%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-13 23:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 74.59%EV -10.72%E -9.08%K -59.55%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.61%EV -16.23%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%13.6%2026-11-13 23:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 74.52%EV -13.75%E -12.06%K -98.18%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.49%EV -14.68%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.99%EV -20.97%E -4.19%K -5.24%G +0.000%17.7%2026-11-13 23:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 73.69%EV -10.72%E -9.08%K -59.55%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 8.92%EV -16.81%E -1.72%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.39%EV -20.97%E -4.19%K -5.24%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-13 23:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.74%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -23.21%E -2.58%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -16.23%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-13 23:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.74%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -23.21%E -2.58%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -16.23%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-13 23:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.74%EV -5.42%E -4.34%K -21.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -23.21%E -2.58%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -16.23%E -3.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-13 23:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Arbitraje (24 combinaciones) +1.33%Unibet 1.28 (79.2%) / NordicBet 17.00 (6.0%) / 1xBet 6.81 (14.9%)Ver las 24 combinaciones
Ajax (Local)FC Thun (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Unibet🎯 1.28 (79.2%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (6.0%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.9%)+1.33%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (79.2%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (6.0%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.9%)+1.33%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (79.0%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.1%)+1.08%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (79.0%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.1%)+1.08%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.9%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.8%)+0.950%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.9%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.8%)+0.950%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.9%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.8%)+0.950%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.9%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)1xBet🎯 6.81 (14.8%)+0.950%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.8%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.3%)+0.848%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.8%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.3%)+0.848%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.7%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.0%)+0.705%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.7%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.0%)+0.705%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.7%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.0%)+0.705%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.7%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)NordicBet🎯 6.70 (15.0%)+0.705%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.6%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.5%)+0.612%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.6%)NordicBet🎯 17.00 (5.9%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.5%)+0.612%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.5%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.2%)+0.476%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.5%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.2%)+0.476%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.5%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.2%)+0.476%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.5%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betsson🎯 6.60 (15.2%)+0.476%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.3%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.4%)+0.241%
Unibet🎯 1.28 (78.3%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.4%)+0.241%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.3%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.4%)+0.241%
Unibet (NL)🎯 1.28 (78.3%)1xBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Betway🎯 6.50 (15.4%)+0.241%

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