The School of Odds
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Real Sociedad v Chelsea

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 17:00 UTC

Final: Real Sociedad 0–1 Chelsea

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Sociedad (Local)

Prediction 15.82%6.32fair odd
EV +2.82%
Edge +0.433%
Kelly +0.512%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.02%15.78%16.02%17.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.855.775.706.5020.62%17.32%17.54%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chelsea (Visit)

Prediction 64.60%1.55fair odd
EV -6.97%
Edge -4.84%
Kelly -15.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.32%64.48%64.42%67.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.391.391.4474.63%71.98%71.94%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.58%5.11fair odd
EV -6.01%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.98%19.74%19.56%20.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.564.604.8023.81%21.95%21.74%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Sociedad (Local): 15.82%; Chelsea (Visit): 64.60%; Draw: 19.58%. For Real Sociedad (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.32. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV +2.82%E +0.433%K +0.512%G +0.014%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -6.99%E -1.47%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-02 14:05
Bet Victor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV +2.82%E +0.433%K +0.512%G +0.014%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -12.14%E -8.93%K -33.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -6.01%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-02 16:55
betano_uk🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV +2.82%E +0.433%K +0.512%G +0.014%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -12.14%E -8.93%K -33.73%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -6.01%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-02 16:55
Betsson🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 14.42%EV -0.348%E -0.055%K -0.066%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -10.85%E -7.86%K -28.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -9.93%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-02 14:05
NordicBet🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 14.42%EV -0.348%E -0.055%K -0.066%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -10.85%E -7.86%K -28.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -9.93%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-02 14:11
Pinnacle🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.00%EV -8.26%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.46%EV -6.97%E -4.84%K -15.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.54%EV -6.99%E -1.47%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-02 16:50
Bovada🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.86%EV -9.05%E -1.57%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.14%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -6.01%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-02 15:35
Unibet (FR)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 15.27%EV -9.84%E -1.73%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 64.95%EV -13.43%E -10.03%K -39.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.78%EV -13.85%E -3.15%K -4.07%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-02 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 15.98%EV -11.42%E -2.04%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 64.36%EV -10.20%E -7.34%K -26.16%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.66%EV -10.91%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-02 16:55
Betway🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -13.00%E -2.36%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -6.97%E -4.84%K -15.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -6.99%E -1.47%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-02 16:45
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -13.00%E -2.36%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -17.76%E -4.23%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-02 16:50
William Hill🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -13.00%E -2.36%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.56%E -6.83%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -17.76%E -4.23%K -5.55%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-02 16:50
NetBet (FR)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.61%EV -16.17%E -3.05%K -3.76%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.25%EV -11.50%E -8.39%K -31.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.14%EV -9.93%E -2.16%K -2.76%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-02 16:40
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.15%EV -20.91%E -4.18%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 63.05%EV -12.14%E -8.93%K -33.73%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.80%EV -15.22%E -3.51%K -4.57%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-02 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 17.95%EV -23.28%E -4.80%K -6.05%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.32%EV -8.27%E -5.82%K -19.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.73%EV -17.76%E -4.23%K -5.55%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-02 16:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.