The School of Odds
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Lyon v VfL Wolfsburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lyon (Local)

Prediction 81.89%1.22fair odd
EV -5.83%
Edge -5.07%
Kelly -38.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.21%82.02%81.87%84.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.121.121.1593.46%88.90%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 6.99%14.30fair odd
EV +26.02%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.398%

assuming max odds 18.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.23%6.94%7.08%8.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.6012.8713.0018.029.43%7.77%7.69%5.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.12%9.00fair odd
EV +12.28%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.166%

assuming max odds 10.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.25%11.04%11.05%12.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.998.0010.1014.29%12.52%12.50%9.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lyon (Local): 81.89%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 6.99%; Draw: 11.12%. For VfL Wolfsburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.30. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.02, corresponding to a positive expected value of +26.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.96%EV -9.10%E -8.20%K -82.75%G +0.000%18.02I 5.55%NM 5.23%EV +26.02%E +1.44%K +1.53%G +0.398%9.62I 10.40%NM 9.80%EV +6.94%E +0.722%K +0.806%G +0.056%6.0%2026-04-02 18:50
Coolbet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.10%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.84%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.97%EV +11.89%E +0.743%K +0.793%G +0.094%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.92%EV -2.73%E -0.312%K -0.352%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-02 18:55
DraftKings🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.73%EV -7.46%E -6.61%K -57.42%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +4.90%E +0.327%K +0.350%G +0.017%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV +5.61%E +0.591%K +0.660%G +0.037%5.7%2026-04-02 18:54
BoyleSports🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -9.10%E -8.20%K -82.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +4.90%E +0.327%K +0.350%G +0.017%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -5.51%E -0.648%K -0.734%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-02 18:49
SportsBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 82.63%EV -12.38%E -11.57%K -176.83%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.32%EV -2.09%E -0.150%K -0.161%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -11.07%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-02 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.98%EV -7.46%E -6.61%K -57.42%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -5.51%E -0.648%K -0.734%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-02 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -16.62%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-02 18:40
Casumo🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -16.62%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-02 18:40
Grosvenor🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -16.62%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-02 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -16.62%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-02 18:40
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -16.62%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-02 18:40
betPARX🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -16.62%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-02 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -16.62%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-02 18:39
Betway🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.80%EV -7.46%E -6.61%K -57.42%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -16.62%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-02 18:55
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.25%EV -8.28%E -7.40%K -69.03%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -22.18%E -3.17%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-02 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.10%EV -11.56%E -10.70%K -144.49%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.82%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.08%EV -11.07%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-02 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.53%EV -9.92%E -9.02%K -99.21%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.81%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -22.18%E -3.17%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-02 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.53%EV -9.92%E -9.02%K -99.21%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.81%EV -9.09%E -0.699%K -0.757%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -22.18%E -3.17%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-02 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.92%EV -5.83%E -5.07%K -38.84%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV -12.58%E -1.01%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -11.07%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.55%EV -8.28%E -7.40%K -69.03%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV -12.58%E -1.01%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.14%EV -8.84%E -1.08%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-02 18:45
Betsson🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.55%EV -8.28%E -7.40%K -69.03%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.31%EV -12.58%E -1.01%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.14%EV -8.84%E -1.08%K -1.23%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-02 18:25
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -8.28%E -7.40%K -69.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -16.08%E -1.34%K -1.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -11.07%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-02 13:17
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.53%EV -8.28%E -7.40%K -69.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.20%EV -23.07%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.27%EV -11.07%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-02 18:50
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.53%EV -8.28%E -7.40%K -69.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.20%EV -23.07%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.27%EV -11.07%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-02 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.53%EV -8.28%E -7.40%K -69.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.20%EV -23.07%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.27%EV -11.07%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-02 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.53%EV -8.28%E -7.40%K -69.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.20%EV -23.07%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.27%EV -11.07%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-02 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.32%EV -9.10%E -8.20%K -82.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.10%EV -23.07%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.58%EV -14.40%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-02 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.21%EV -9.92%E -9.02%K -99.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.02%EV -23.07%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -16.62%E -2.22%K -2.56%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-02 09:59
1xBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.94%EV -6.65%E -5.83%K -47.47%G +0.000%10.60I 9.43%NM 8.81%EV -25.87%E -2.44%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.10I 9.90%NM 9.25%EV +12.28%E +1.22%K +1.35%G +0.166%7.1%2026-04-02 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.36%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.21%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.43%1.0%2026-04-02 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 85.18%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.94%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88%1.2%2026-04-02 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 85.58%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.05%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.37%1.6%2026-04-02 18:55
Smarkets◎1.14I 87.72%NM 84.94%17.99I 5.56%NM 5.38%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.68%3.3%2026-04-02 18:35