The School of Odds
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Chelsea v Arsenal

Kickoff: 2026-04-01 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chelsea (Local)

Prediction 43.73%2.29fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.713%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.62%43.65%43.65%45.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.122.102.2551.28%47.12%47.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arsenal (Visit)

Prediction 32.12%3.11fair odd
EV -4.59%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.25%32.21%32.16%34.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.812.852.9738.17%35.56%35.09%33.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.14%4.14fair odd
EV +1.40%
Edge +0.334%
Kelly +0.438%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.28%24.14%24.18%25.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.713.654.2029.41%26.96%27.40%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chelsea (Local): 43.73%; Arsenal (Visit): 32.12%; Draw: 24.14%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.79%E -1.72%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02%EV -10.05%E -3.59%K -5.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV +1.40%E +0.334%K +0.438%G +0.006%5.0%2026-04-01 18:19
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.01%EV -8.60%E -4.11%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.44%EV -6.84%E -2.36%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.56%EV +0.678%E +0.163%K +0.214%G +0.001%6.3%2026-04-01 18:55
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.66%EV -4.23%E -1.93%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.10%EV -11.98%E -4.37%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.24%EV -2.94%E -0.732%K -0.975%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-01 18:55
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.12%EV -5.98%E -2.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -5.23%E -1.77%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -3.43%E -0.857%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-01 18:50
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.63%EV -12.54%E -6.27%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -13.26%E -4.91%K -7.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -3.43%E -0.857%K -1.14%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-01 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.33%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -6.84%E -2.36%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-01 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.56%EV -14.72%E -7.55%K -15.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.16%EV -15.83%E -6.04%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.28%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-01 18:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.83%EV -9.47%E -4.58%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.25%EV -4.59%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.92%EV -6.32%E -1.63%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-01 18:38
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.84%E -2.36%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-01 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.11%EV -12.54%E -6.27%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.67%EV -13.26%E -4.91%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.22%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-01 18:49
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -8.44%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 18:49
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.92%EV -9.04%E -4.34%K -8.37%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -7.48%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-01 18:40
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.75%EV -7.48%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-01 18:53
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.54%EV -10.35%E -5.05%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 32.34%EV -11.34%E -4.11%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-01 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.10%EV -12.54%E -6.27%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.84%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-01 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -1.60%E -0.713%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -7.48%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.71%EV -11.88%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-01 18:49
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -2.48%E -1.11%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -8.44%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -11.88%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 18:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -2.48%E -1.11%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -8.44%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -11.88%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 18:50
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -2.48%E -1.11%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -8.44%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -11.88%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 18:50
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -2.48%E -1.11%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -8.44%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -11.88%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 18:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -2.48%E -1.11%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -8.44%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -11.88%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 18:50
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.78%EV -2.48%E -1.11%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -8.44%E -2.96%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -11.88%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-01 18:49
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -7.48%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-01 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-01 18:50
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-01 18:50
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.18%EV -4.66%E -2.14%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.92%EV -7.48%E -2.60%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -14.29%E -4.03%K -5.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-01 12:10
LeoVegas🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.62%EV -5.54%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -15.50%E -4.43%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-01 18:49
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -13.26%E -4.91%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -15.50%E -4.43%K -6.20%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-01 18:55
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -8.16%E -3.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -13.26%E -4.91%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -15.50%E -4.43%K -6.20%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-01 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.69%EV -6.41%E -3.00%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.86%EV -16.71%E -4.84%K -6.82%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-01 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.69%EV -6.41%E -3.00%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.66%E -4.24%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.86%EV -16.71%E -4.84%K -6.82%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-01 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -10.35%E -5.05%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -10.05%E -3.59%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -17.91%E -5.27%K -7.46%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-01 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -10.35%E -5.05%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -10.05%E -3.59%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -17.91%E -5.27%K -7.46%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-01 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.22%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.16%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63%0.5%2026-04-01 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.22%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.16%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63%0.5%2026-04-01 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.22%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.16%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63%0.5%2026-04-01 18:55
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.60%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.30%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.10%2.8%2026-04-01 18:55