The School of Odds
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Barcelona v Real Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 16:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 86.43%1.16fair odd
EV -4.92%
Edge -4.48%
Kelly -49.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.84%86.11%86.42%87.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.071.081.1099.01%93.28%92.59%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 5.12%19.52fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.066%
Kelly -0.070%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 19.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.80%5.41%5.17%7.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0016.2216.0019.278.33%6.17%6.25%5.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.44%11.84fair odd
EV +8.51%
Edge +0.662%
Kelly +0.718%
Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 12.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.31%8.49%8.41%10.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.7010.6610.5012.8511.49%9.38%9.52%7.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barcelona (Local): 86.43%; Real Madrid (Visit): 5.12%; Draw: 8.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.84. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.81%EV -7.52%E -7.03%K -107.39%G +0.000%19.27I 5.19%NM 4.88%EV -1.27%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000%12.85I 7.78%NM 7.31%EV +8.51%E +0.662%K +0.718%G +0.061%6.4%2026-04-02 16:35
BetMGM🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.51%EV -4.92%E -4.48%K -49.24%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.97%EV -30.83%E -2.28%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV +5.55%E +0.444%K +0.483%G +0.027%6.3%2026-04-02 16:30
Coolbet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.09%EV -5.79%E -5.31%K -64.32%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.00%EV -2.66%E -0.140%K -0.148%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.91%EV +1.33%E +0.111%K +0.121%G +0.002%5.3%2026-04-02 16:34
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.20%EV -6.65%E -6.16%K -83.16%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV -2.66%E -0.140%K -0.148%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.85%EV +1.33%E +0.111%K +0.121%G +0.002%6.2%2026-04-02 16:35
BoyleSports🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.40%EV -8.38%E -7.91%K -139.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -2.66%E -0.140%K -0.148%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.72%EV +1.33%E +0.111%K +0.121%G +0.002%7.9%2026-04-02 16:30
1xBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.20%EV -7.52%E -7.03%K -107.39%G +0.000%18.80I 5.32%NM 4.96%EV -3.68%E -0.196%K -0.207%G +0.000%11.90I 8.40%NM 7.84%EV +0.486%E +0.041%K +0.045%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 16:34
Betway🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.19%EV -7.52%E -7.03%K -107.39%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -12.90%E -0.759%K -0.806%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -7.11%E -0.647%K -0.711%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-02 16:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.16%EV -6.65%E -6.16%K -83.16%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -38.52%E -3.21%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -7.11%E -0.647%K -0.711%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-02 16:30
Coral🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.16%EV -6.65%E -6.16%K -83.16%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV -38.52%E -3.21%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV -7.11%E -0.647%K -0.711%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-02 16:30
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.32%EV -8.38%E -7.91%K -139.69%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -28.27%E -2.02%K -2.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -7.11%E -0.647%K -0.711%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-02 15:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 86.86%EV -12.70%E -12.58%K -1270.32%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.16%EV -12.90%E -0.759%K -0.806%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.98%EV -7.11%E -0.647%K -0.711%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-02 16:34
Grosvenor🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.33%EV -5.79%E -5.31%K -64.32%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:30
Unibet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.33%EV -5.79%E -5.31%K -64.32%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:30
Casumo🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.33%EV -5.79%E -5.31%K -64.32%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.33%EV -5.79%E -5.31%K -64.32%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.33%EV -5.79%E -5.31%K -64.32%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:30
betPARX🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.33%EV -5.79%E -5.31%K -64.32%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.33%EV -5.79%E -5.31%K -64.32%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 16:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.00%EV -6.65%E -6.16%K -83.16%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV -7.78%E -0.432%K -0.458%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-02 16:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.67%EV -8.38%E -7.91%K -139.69%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.65%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-02 16:30
SportsBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.47%EV -9.25%E -8.81%K -184.92%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.98%EV -23.15%E -1.54%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.55%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-02 15:40
LeoVegas🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 85.91%EV -10.11%E -9.72%K -252.76%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.58%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.51%EV -11.34%E -1.08%K -1.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-02 16:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.21%EV -8.38%E -7.91%K -139.69%G +0.000%18.75I 5.33%NM 4.87%EV -3.94%E -0.210%K -0.222%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.92%EV -13.45%E -1.31%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-02 16:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.84%EV -4.92%E -4.48%K -49.24%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -15.56%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 14:49
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -6.65%E -6.16%K -83.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -23.15%E -1.54%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -15.56%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-02 16:30
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -6.65%E -6.16%K -83.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -23.15%E -1.54%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -15.56%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-02 16:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -6.65%E -6.16%K -83.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -23.15%E -1.54%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -15.56%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-02 16:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -6.65%E -6.16%K -83.16%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -23.15%E -1.54%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -15.56%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-02 16:30
Bet Victor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.07%EV -8.38%E -7.91%K -139.69%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -2.66%E -0.140%K -0.148%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -15.56%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-02 16:28
LiveScore Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 85.66%EV -10.97%E -10.65%K -365.82%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.51%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -15.56%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-02 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 85.66%EV -10.97%E -10.65%K -365.82%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.51%EV -18.03%E -1.13%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -15.56%E -1.56%K -1.73%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-02 16:30
NordicBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.45%EV -7.52%E -7.03%K -107.39%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.22%EV -10.34%E -0.591%K -0.627%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.33%EV -17.25%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-02 16:30
Betsson🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.45%EV -7.52%E -7.03%K -107.39%G +0.000%17.50I 5.71%NM 5.22%EV -10.34%E -0.591%K -0.627%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.33%EV -17.25%E -1.76%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-02 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.84%EV -6.65%E -6.16%K -83.16%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.88%EV -33.40%E -2.57%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.28%EV -26.54%E -3.05%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-02 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.33%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.07%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60%1.1%2026-04-02 16:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.33%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.07%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60%1.1%2026-04-02 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.33%19.50I 5.13%NM 5.07%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60%1.1%2026-04-02 16:30
Smarkets◎1.10I 90.91%NM 88.07%18.48I 5.41%NM 5.24%14.49I 6.90%NM 6.69%3.2%2026-04-02 16:35