The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Union Saint-Gilloise v Bodø/Glimt

Kickoff: 2026-08-04 18:00 UTC

Final: Union Saint-Gilloise 3–3 Bodø/Glimt

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise (Local)

Prediction 37.84%2.64fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.622%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.17%37.84%37.82%39.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.452.432.6043.86%40.84%41.15%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bodø/Glimt (Visit)

Prediction 35.45%2.82fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.391%
Kelly -0.610%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.03%35.46%35.53%36.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.622.652.7940.00%38.15%37.74%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.71%3.74fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.318%
Kelly -0.435%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%26.70%26.65%27.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.483.503.7030.77%28.77%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 37.84%; Bodø/Glimt (Visit): 35.45%; Draw: 26.71%. For Bodø/Glimt (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.79, with an expected value of -1.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -1.62%E -0.622%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.19%E -2.70%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 17:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.58%EV -2.37%E -0.920%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.78%EV -3.93%E -1.45%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.64%EV -2.78%E -0.763%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-04 17:55
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.89%EV -2.37%E -0.920%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.52%EV -4.99%E -1.86%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.59%EV -7.85%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:55
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.89%EV -2.37%E -0.920%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.52%EV -4.99%E -1.86%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.59%EV -7.85%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.91%EV -8.54%E -3.31%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -1.17%E -0.318%K -0.435%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 17:50
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.16%EV -3.51%E -1.38%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.52%E -1.86%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.64%EV -8.54%E -3.31%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.17%E -0.318%K -0.435%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 17:55
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 17:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.85%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 17:54
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -11.37%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.86%E -3.59%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-04 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -5.40%E -2.16%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -11.37%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.86%E -3.59%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-04 17:55
1xBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.29%EV -6.16%E -2.48%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.03%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.610%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.68%EV -8.39%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 17:55
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.19%E -2.70%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 17:55
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -9.60%E -3.76%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.52%E -1.86%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-04 17:55
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.24%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -10.52%E -3.14%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-04 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -7.12%E -2.72%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.86%E -3.59%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-04 17:55
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -7.29%E -2.98%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -9.60%E -3.76%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-04 17:54
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 17:55
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 17:55
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 17:55
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -8.05%E -3.31%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 17:55
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.67%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.25%EV -1.45%E -0.520%K -0.813%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -2.51%E -0.688%K -0.947%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 17:45
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.73%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.19%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -6.06%E -2.29%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.19%E -2.70%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-04 17:54
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -9.18%E -3.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -11.86%E -3.59%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-04 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.51%EV -9.94%E -4.18%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -9.60%E -3.76%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-04 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.97%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -5.18%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-04 17:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.96%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -7.85%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-04 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -11.08%E -4.71%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.96%EV -7.83%E -3.01%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -7.85%E -2.28%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-04 17:54
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -12.97%E -5.64%K -9.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -11.37%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -9.19%E -2.70%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-04 17:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.57%EV -13.73%E -6.02%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.18%EV -11.37%E -4.55%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.25%EV -10.52%E -3.14%K -4.48%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-04 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.42%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.30%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27%0.5%2026-08-04 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.70%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.04%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-08-04 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.87%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.19%0.8%2026-08-04 17:55

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