The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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PFC Levski Sofia v Universitatea Craiova

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 17:30 UTC

Final: PFC Levski Sofia 1–0 Universitatea Craiova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PFC Levski Sofia (Local)

Prediction 41.00%2.44fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -4.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.16%41.14%40.99%46.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.152.202.3050.76%46.43%45.56%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Universitatea Craiova (Visit)

Prediction 28.54%3.50fair odd
EV +5.60%
Edge +1.51%
Kelly +2.07%
Growth +0.116%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.93%28.41%28.59%29.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.413.333.7032.26%29.30%30.08%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.46%3.28fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -0.787%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.86%30.45%30.43%31.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.093.153.2034.72%32.32%31.75%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PFC Levski Sofia (Local): 41.00%; Universitatea Craiova (Visit): 28.54%; Draw: 30.46%. For Universitatea Craiova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -18.00%E -9.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV +5.60%E +1.51%K +2.07%G +0.116%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -18.00%E -9.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV +5.60%E +1.51%K +2.07%G +0.116%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:20
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -18.00%E -9.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV +5.60%E +1.51%K +2.07%G +0.116%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:20
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -18.00%E -9.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV +5.60%E +1.51%K +2.07%G +0.116%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:24
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -18.00%E -9.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV +5.60%E +1.51%K +2.07%G +0.116%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -18.00%E -9.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV +5.60%E +1.51%K +2.07%G +0.116%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:24
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -18.00%E -9.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV +5.60%E +1.51%K +2.07%G +0.116%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -18.00%E -9.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV +5.60%E +1.51%K +2.07%G +0.116%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -18.00%E -9.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV +5.60%E +1.51%K +2.07%G +0.116%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:24
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -18.00%E -9.00%K -18.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV +5.60%E +1.51%K +2.07%G +0.116%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 17:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.19%EV -19.23%E -9.76%K -19.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV +4.17%E +1.14%K +1.57%G +0.066%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -4.04%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-22 17:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.19%EV -19.23%E -9.76%K -19.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV +4.17%E +1.14%K +1.57%G +0.066%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -4.04%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-22 17:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.60%EV -10.21%E -4.66%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.12%EV -1.82%E -0.530%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.29%EV -6.18%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-22 17:24
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -7.75%E -3.45%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -2.97%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.61%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-22 17:18
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.48%EV -6.11%E -2.67%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -4.39%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.04%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-22 17:23
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -9.80%E -4.46%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -4.39%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -10.14%E -3.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-22 17:20
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.20%EV -5.70%E -2.48%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -4.04%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-22 17:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -7.75%E -3.45%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -10.14%E -3.44%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-22 17:24
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -11.85%E -5.51%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -12.27%E -4.26%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-22 17:19
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.02%EV -5.70%E -2.48%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -4.04%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-22 17:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -11.85%E -5.51%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.00%EV -12.27%E -4.26%K -6.53%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-22 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.67%EV -5.70%E -2.48%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.96%EV -7.82%E -2.42%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.37%EV -6.18%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 17:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.67%EV -5.70%E -2.48%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.96%EV -7.82%E -2.42%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.37%EV -6.18%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 17:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.70%E -2.48%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -2.52%E -0.787%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-22 17:09
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.70%E -2.48%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-22 17:24
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.75%E -3.45%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.61%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-22 17:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.75%E -3.45%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.61%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-22 17:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -7.75%E -3.45%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.61%E -2.87%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-22 17:24
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.70%E -2.48%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -10.10%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -4.04%E -1.28%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-22 17:09
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -7.75%E -3.45%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -10.10%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.66%E -4.02%K -6.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-22 17:24
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.75%E -3.45%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.57%E -1.80%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-22 17:09
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -11.85%E -5.51%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.66%E -4.02%K -6.14%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-22 17:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-07-22 17:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-07-22 17:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-07-22 17:25