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PFC Levski Sofia v AEK Athens

2026-08-18 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PFC Levski Sofia (Local)

Prediction 31.91%3.13fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.344%
Kelly -0.508%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.08%31.76%31.74%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.912.883.1035.71%34.41%34.72%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AEK Athens (Visit)

Prediction 38.23%2.62fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.526%
Kelly -0.859%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.49%38.32%38.17%39.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.432.452.5844.44%41.17%40.82%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.85%3.35fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.451%
Kelly -0.647%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.70%29.92%30.09%31.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.133.203.3033.33%31.91%31.25%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: PFC Levski Sofia (Local): 31.91%; AEK Athens (Visit): 38.23%; Draw: 29.85%. For PFC Levski Sofia (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.10, with an expected value of -1.07%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -1.07%E -0.344%K -0.508%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -8.24%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-12 08:54
1xBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.93%EV -2.66%E -0.873%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.74%EV -1.36%E -0.526%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.33%EV -4.17%E -1.30%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-12 11:09
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.02%EV -4.26%E -1.42%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.42%E -1.77%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.56%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 12:04
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.02%EV -4.26%E -1.42%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.42%E -1.77%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.56%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-12 12:05
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.85%E -1.98%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.87%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -1.49%E -0.451%K -0.647%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 10:39
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -5.85%E -1.98%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.04%EV -4.42%E -1.77%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 12:12
Marathon Bet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -6.81%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.77%EV -5.56%E -2.25%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.29%EV -8.05%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-12 11:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -7.45%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-12 12:09
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -7.45%E -2.57%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.76%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.33%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-12 12:00
888sport🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -8.09%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-12 09:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -8.09%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-12 09:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -8.09%E -2.81%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-12 09:39
Neds🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -9.05%E -3.17%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -2.98%E -0.917%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-12 12:09
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -9.05%E -3.17%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -10.15%E -4.32%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-12 12:09
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -9.05%E -3.17%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -10.15%E -4.32%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-12 12:07
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -9.05%E -3.17%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.38%EV -13.97%E -6.21%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-12 09:49
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.64%E -3.80%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -8.24%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.47%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-12 12:09
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -10.64%E -3.80%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -8.24%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-12 11:09
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.64%E -3.80%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -12.06%E -5.24%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -7.46%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-12 12:08
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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