The School of Odds

Petrocub Hîncești v KF Egnatia

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 17:00 UTC

Final: Petrocub Hîncești 1–1 KF Egnatia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Petrocub Hîncești (Local)

Prediction 41.56%2.41fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.40%41.67%41.42%44.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.192.202.3050.51%45.57%45.45%43.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

KF Egnatia (Visit)

Prediction 27.44%3.64fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.691%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%27.26%27.50%28.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.153.333.303.5831.75%30.03%30.30%27.93%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 31.00%3.23fair odd
EV -0.786%
Edge -0.246%
Kelly -0.357%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.93%31.08%31.08%33.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.793.053.053.2035.84%32.81%32.79%31.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
DraftKings2.30I 43.48%NM 41.14%EV -4.41%E -1.92%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.03%EV -5.44%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 16:55
BetUS2.29I 43.67%NM 41.06%EV -4.83%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.18%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.77%EV -8.23%E -2.78%K -4.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-08 16:54
LowVig.ag2.29I 43.67%NM 40.40%EV -4.83%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -3.98%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.16%EV -13.50%E -4.84%K -7.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 16:40
BetOnline.ag2.29I 43.67%NM 40.40%EV -4.83%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -3.98%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.16%EV -13.50%E -4.84%K -7.54%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 16:40
1xBet2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -6.07%E -2.69%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.64%EV -1.78%E -0.498%K -0.691%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.16%EV -5.13%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-08 16:55
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -3.89%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-08 16:55
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.89%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-08 16:55
FanDuel2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -8.54%E -2.89%K -4.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-08 16:54
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.09%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-08 16:55
Mr Green (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.09%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-08 16:55
888sport2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.09%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-08 16:55
888sport (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -6.49%E -2.88%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.09%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-08 16:55
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 41.48%EV -7.74%E -3.48%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -10.84%E -3.33%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -5.44%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-08 16:55
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 41.48%EV -7.74%E -3.48%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -10.84%E -3.33%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -5.44%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-08 16:55
Marathon Bet2.21I 45.25%NM 42.18%EV -8.15%E -3.69%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -3.98%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.18%EV -7.30%E -2.44%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-08 16:55
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -8.57%E -3.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.72%E -1.98%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -3.89%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-08 16:55
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -8.57%E -3.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -5.44%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-08 16:55
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -8.57%E -3.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.21%E -3.81%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -6.99%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-08 16:55
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -8.57%E -3.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -10.84%E -3.33%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.19%E -4.71%K -7.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-08 16:55
ATG (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.81%EV -9.81%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -0.786%E -0.246%K -0.357%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 16:45
Svenska Spel2.17I 46.08%NM 42.81%EV -9.81%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -0.786%E -0.246%K -0.357%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 16:45
Unibet (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.81%EV -9.81%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -0.786%E -0.246%K -0.357%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.81%EV -9.81%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -0.786%E -0.246%K -0.357%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 16:45
Casumo2.17I 46.08%NM 42.81%EV -9.81%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -0.786%E -0.246%K -0.357%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 16:45
betPARX2.17I 46.08%NM 42.81%EV -9.81%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -0.786%E -0.246%K -0.357%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 16:50
Grosvenor2.17I 46.08%NM 42.81%EV -9.81%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -0.786%E -0.246%K -0.357%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 16:45
Unibet2.17I 46.08%NM 42.81%EV -9.81%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -0.786%E -0.246%K -0.357%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 16:45
Unibet (NL)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.81%EV -9.81%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -0.786%E -0.246%K -0.357%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 16:45
TABtouch2.17I 46.08%NM 42.81%EV -9.81%E -4.52%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -0.786%E -0.246%K -0.357%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-08 16:50
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -10.65%E -4.95%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -12.21%E -3.81%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -10.71%E -3.72%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-08 16:45
Virgin Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -11.89%E -5.61%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.84%E -3.33%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -2.34%E -0.742%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-08 16:50
LiveScore Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.00%EV -11.89%E -5.61%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.84%E -3.33%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -2.34%E -0.742%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-08 16:50
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -14.80%E -7.22%K -14.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -3.98%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -6.99%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-08 16:39
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.05%EV -14.80%E -7.22%K -14.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.02%EV -13.58%E -4.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -5.44%E -1.78%K -2.65%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-08 16:45
Unibet (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 44.25%EV -17.71%E -8.94%K -18.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -9.46%E -2.87%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -6.99%E -2.33%K -3.49%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-08 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.76%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94%1.0%2026-07-08 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.02%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%1.4%2026-07-08 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.02%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.82%1.4%2026-07-08 16:55