The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Omonoia FC v FC Kairat

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 17:00 UTC

Final: Omonoia FC 1–0 FC Kairat

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Omonoia FC (Local)

Prediction 59.57%1.68fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -5.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.00%59.62%59.73%60.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.581.6266.67%63.50%63.29%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Kairat (Visit)

Prediction 15.99%6.25fair odd
EV -0.065%
Edge -0.010%
Kelly -0.012%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.84%15.91%16.07%17.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.535.506.2520.41%18.08%18.18%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.44%4.09fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -0.747%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.57%24.48%24.20%25.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.704.0028.57%26.75%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Omonoia FC (Local): 59.57%; FC Kairat (Visit): 15.99%; Draw: 24.44%. For FC Kairat (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.254. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.250, with an expected value of -0.065%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 16:44
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 16:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 16:44
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 16:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 16:45
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 16:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 16:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 16:44
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -3.50%E -2.16%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 16:44
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.59%EV -4.69%E -2.93%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -8.06%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -2.24%E -0.561%K -0.747%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-22 16:42
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.07%EV -4.69%E -2.93%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.91%EV -18.45%E -3.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.02%EV -10.80%E -2.96%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-22 16:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.07%EV -4.69%E -2.93%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.91%EV -18.45%E -3.62%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.02%EV -10.80%E -2.96%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-22 16:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.93%EV -5.88%E -3.72%K -10.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.15%EV -0.065%E -0.010%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 16:45
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.41%EV -5.88%E -3.72%K -10.13%G +0.000%5.79I 17.27%NM 16.21%EV -7.42%E -1.28%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -5.91%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-22 16:45
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.88%E -3.72%K -10.13%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -5.66%E -0.960%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 16:44
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -5.88%E -3.72%K -10.13%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -5.66%E -0.960%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 16:44
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -5.88%E -3.72%K -10.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -8.06%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.35%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 16:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.38%EV -5.88%E -3.72%K -10.13%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.44%EV -16.85%E -3.24%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-22 16:24
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.04%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -8.06%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.24%E -0.561%K -0.747%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-22 16:45
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.76%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -7.26%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.69%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-22 16:34
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -12.06%E -2.19%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -12.06%E -2.19%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -12.06%E -2.19%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 16:44
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.29%EV -6.47%E -4.12%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.06%E -2.19%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.07%EV -10.80%E -2.96%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-22 16:44
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.43%EV -7.07%E -4.53%K -12.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -4.06%E -0.677%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -3.46%E -0.877%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-22 16:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.77%EV -7.07%E -4.53%K -12.62%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -7.26%E -1.25%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.16%EV -5.66%E -1.47%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 16:44
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.36%EV -7.67%E -4.95%K -13.94%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -10.46%E -1.87%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-22 16:34
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.40%EV -7.67%E -4.95%K -13.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -12.06%E -2.19%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-22 16:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.00%EV -8.26%E -5.36%K -15.30%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.92%EV -21.65%E -4.42%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.08%EV -14.46%E -4.13%K -5.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-22 16:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -8.86%E -5.79%K -16.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -12.06%E -2.19%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -8.35%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-22 16:34
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -8.86%E -5.79%K -16.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -12.06%E -2.19%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-22 16:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.48%EV -9.45%E -6.22%K -18.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -4.06%E -0.677%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-22 16:45
BetUS🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.94%EV -10.05%E -6.65%K -19.70%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.84%EV -0.864%E -0.139%K -0.166%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-22 16:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.94%EV -10.05%E -6.65%K -19.70%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.84%EV -0.864%E -0.139%K -0.166%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-22 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.94%EV -10.05%E -6.65%K -19.70%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.84%EV -0.864%E -0.139%K -0.166%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-22 16:44
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.64%EV -10.64%E -7.10%K -21.29%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -20.05%E -4.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -9.57%E -2.59%K -3.55%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-22 16:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-07-22 16:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.63%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-07-22 16:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.77%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-07-22 16:45