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Olympiakos Piraeus v NEC Nijmegen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus (Local)
Prediction 60.02%1.67fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -6.62%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.82%60.06%59.81%62.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.551.551.6068.03%64.69%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
NEC Nijmegen (Visit)
Prediction 17.58%5.69fair odd
EV +5.45%
Edge +0.908%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.059%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.91%17.56%17.63%18.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.475.576.0020.83%18.28%17.95%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.41%4.46fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.319%
Kelly -0.413%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.37%22.38%22.56%23.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.074.104.4025.97%24.56%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Olympiakos Piraeus (Local): 60.02%; NEC Nijmegen (Visit): 17.58%; Draw: 22.41%. For NEC Nijmegen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.69. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.45%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.81%EV -5.77%E -3.68%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.91%EV +5.45%E +0.908%K +1.09%G +0.059% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.81%EV -5.77%E -3.68%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.91%EV +5.45%E +0.908%K +1.09%G +0.059% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.63%EV -6.37%E -4.09%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +1.94%E +0.334%K +0.403%G +0.008% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 17:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.63%EV -6.37%E -4.09%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +1.94%E +0.334%K +0.403%G +0.008% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.63%EV -6.37%E -4.09%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +1.94%E +0.334%K +0.403%G +0.008% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -6.97%E -4.50%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV +1.94%E +0.334%K +0.403%G +0.008% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -6.97%E -4.50%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.15%EV +1.94%E +0.334%K +0.403%G +0.008% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -8.17%E -5.34%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.02%EV +1.94%E +0.334%K +0.403%G +0.008% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.74%EV -8.17%E -5.34%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.02%EV +1.94%E +0.334%K +0.403%G +0.008% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.79%EV -9.37%E -6.21%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.97%EV +1.06%E +0.184%K +0.222%G +0.002% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -11.49%E -2.91%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-04 17:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.51%EV -11.78%E -8.01%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.12%EV +0.178%E +0.031%K +0.038%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -3.65%E -0.848%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-04 17:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -9.97%E -6.65%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -1.58%E -0.282%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -12.61%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -9.97%E -6.65%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -1.58%E -0.282%K -0.343%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -12.61%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-04 17:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68%EV -3.97%E -2.48%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 5.57I 17.95%NM 17.14%EV -2.11%E -0.378%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.18%EV -7.68%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.68%EV -3.97%E -2.48%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 5.57I 17.95%NM 17.14%EV -2.11%E -0.378%K -0.461%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.18%EV -7.68%E -1.86%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 17:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.73%EV -4.57%E -2.88%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.11%EV -2.46%E -0.443%K -0.540%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.16%EV -8.13%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 17:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.20%EV -8.17%E -5.34%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -3.34%E -0.607%K -0.742%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -3.65%E -0.848%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.94%EV -3.97%E -2.48%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.76%EV -5.09%E -0.943%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.30%EV -3.65%E -0.848%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 17:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.01%EV -9.37%E -6.21%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.06%EV -5.09%E -0.943%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.39%EV -5.77%E -3.68%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -6.85%E -1.29%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -9.25%E -2.28%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.47%EV -4.57%E -2.88%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -7.73%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.70%EV -6.97%E -4.50%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -7.73%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -1.40%E -0.319%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 17:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -5.77%E -3.68%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -12.12%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -12.61%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -9.97%E -6.65%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.12%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-04 17:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.39%EV -6.97%E -4.50%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.12%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -13.73%E -3.57%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-04 17:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -9.97%E -6.65%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -12.12%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.19%EV -11.78%E -8.01%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -12.12%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.82%EV -5.77%E -3.68%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -15.64%E -3.26%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -12.61%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.82%EV -5.77%E -3.68%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -15.64%E -3.26%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -12.61%E -3.23%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.79% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.58% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.79% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.58% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.79% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.58% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.63% | 0.5% | 2026-08-04 17:55 |
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