The School of Odds
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NEC Nijmegen v Olympiakos Piraeus

2026-08-11 17:30 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Prediction 34.57%2.89fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.42%34.45%34.65%34.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.662.652.7638.17%37.59%37.74%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Olympiakos Piraeus (Visit)

Prediction 37.95%2.63fair odd
EV -7.02%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -4.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.17%38.04%37.83%39.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.412.412.4543.48%41.43%41.49%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.47%3.64fair odd
EV -4.66%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.67%27.52%27.51%28.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.303.4732.26%30.23%30.30%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 34.57%; Olympiakos Piraeus (Visit): 37.95%; Draw: 27.47%. For NEC Nijmegen (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.76, with an expected value of -4.58%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 33.79%EV -4.58%E -1.66%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.18%EV -9.67%E -4.06%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.21%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-05 19:19
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -6.65%E -2.46%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -7.02%E -2.86%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -12.08%E -3.78%K -5.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-05 15:30
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -6.65%E -2.46%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -7.02%E -2.86%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -12.08%E -3.78%K -5.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-05 15:29
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -6.65%E -2.46%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -12.71%E -5.53%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-05 19:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.93%EV -8.38%E -3.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.40%EV -8.54%E -3.54%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.67%EV -4.66%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 15:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.93%EV -8.38%E -3.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.40%EV -8.54%E -3.54%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.67%EV -4.66%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-05 15:45
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -9.42%E -3.60%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.02%E -2.86%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-05 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -9.42%E -3.60%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.02%E -2.86%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-05 16:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -9.42%E -3.60%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -7.02%E -2.86%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-05 16:25
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -9.42%E -3.60%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -8.91%E -3.71%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.33%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-05 15:59
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -9.42%E -3.60%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -8.91%E -3.71%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -14.83%E -4.78%K -7.06%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-05 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.