The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Larne FC v Red Star Belgrade

Kickoff: 2026-07-21 19:00 UTC

Final: Larne FC 0–4 Red Star Belgrade

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Larne FC (Local)

Prediction 5.98%16.72fair odd
EV +10.67%
Edge +0.577%
Kelly +0.610%
Growth +0.065%

assuming max odds 18.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.08%5.96%6.21%7.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0014.8515.0018.507.69%6.73%6.67%5.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Red Star Belgrade (Visit)

Prediction 81.01%1.23fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -18.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.55%80.97%81.34%82.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.151.141.1991.74%87.27%87.72%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.00%7.69fair odd
EV +4.03%
Edge +0.503%
Kelly +0.575%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.78%13.07%12.45%15.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.237.508.0016.67%13.84%13.33%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Larne FC (Local): 5.98%; Red Star Belgrade (Visit): 81.01%; Draw: 13.00%. For Larne FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.72. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯18.50I 5.41%NM 5.08%EV +10.67%E +0.577%K +0.610%G +0.065%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.25%EV -5.21%E -4.46%K -30.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -16.78%E -2.62%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-21 18:30
NordicBet🎯18.50I 5.41%NM 5.08%EV +10.67%E +0.577%K +0.610%G +0.065%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.25%EV -5.21%E -4.46%K -30.66%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -16.78%E -2.62%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-21 18:30
FanDuel🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +1.70%E +0.100%K +0.106%G +0.002%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.16%EV -8.45%E -7.48%K -65.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯16.25I 6.15%NM 5.74%EV -2.79%E -0.172%K -0.183%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.82%EV -7.64%E -6.70%K -54.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV -4.29%E -0.268%K -0.286%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -5.21%E -4.46%K -30.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -8.98%E -1.28%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 18:50
DraftKings🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -6.83%E -5.94%K -45.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV +4.03%E +0.503%K +0.575%G +0.023%6.1%2026-07-21 17:55
Coolbet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.91%EV -5.21%E -4.46%K -30.66%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.85%EV -12.23%E -1.81%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 18:55
888sport🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.21%E -4.46%K -30.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -15.48%E -2.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.21%E -4.46%K -30.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -15.48%E -2.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.64%E -6.70%K -54.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 18:25
TABtouch🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.64%E -6.70%K -54.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 18:25
Unibet (NL)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.64%E -6.70%K -54.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.64%E -6.70%K -54.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 18:25
Casumo🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.64%E -6.70%K -54.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 18:25
Unibet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.64%E -6.70%K -54.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.64%E -6.70%K -54.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.64%E -6.70%K -54.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 18:35
betPARX🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -7.64%E -6.70%K -54.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 18:35
Grosvenor🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -8.45%E -7.48%K -65.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 12:45
PlayUp🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.55%EV -5.21%E -4.46%K -30.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -21.98%E -3.66%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 18:50
SportsBet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -10.27%E -0.684%K -0.733%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -9.26%E -8.27%K -77.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-21 18:25
Bovada🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.77%EV -16.25%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.00%EV -5.21%E -4.46%K -30.66%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV +0.774%E +0.100%K +0.115%G +0.001%5.5%2026-07-21 18:40
Neds🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.71%EV -16.25%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.32%EV -5.21%E -4.46%K -30.66%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.96%EV -5.73%E -0.790%K -0.916%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 16:20
Bet Right🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.57%EV -16.25%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.28%EV -6.02%E -5.19%K -37.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -15.48%E -2.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-21 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -16.25%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.34%EV -9.26%E -8.27%K -77.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -16.25%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 81.34%EV -9.26%E -8.27%K -77.20%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -2.48%E -0.330%K -0.381%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 18:25
Paddy Power🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -16.25%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.92%EV -10.88%E -9.89%K -108.84%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.72%EV -8.98%E -1.28%K -1.50%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-21 18:55
PMU (FR)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.31%EV -16.25%E -1.16%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 81.07%EV -11.69%E -10.73%K -129.93%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.62%EV -8.98%E -1.28%K -1.50%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-21 18:25
BetUS🎯13.90I 7.19%NM 6.72%EV -16.85%E -1.21%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.23%EV -6.83%E -5.94%K -45.55%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV +0.774%E +0.100%K +0.115%G +0.001%7.1%2026-07-21 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯13.90I 7.19%NM 6.72%EV -16.85%E -1.21%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.23%EV -6.83%E -5.94%K -45.55%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV +0.774%E +0.100%K +0.115%G +0.001%7.1%2026-07-21 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯13.90I 7.19%NM 6.72%EV -16.85%E -1.21%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.23%EV -6.83%E -5.94%K -45.55%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV +0.774%E +0.100%K +0.115%G +0.001%7.1%2026-07-21 18:40
1xBet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.31%EV -22.23%E -1.71%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.88%EV -3.59%E -3.02%K -18.91%G +0.000%7.42I 13.48%NM 12.81%EV -3.52%E -0.474%K -0.548%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 18:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -22.23%E -1.71%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -5.21%E -4.46%K -30.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -15.48%E -2.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-21 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.81%EV -22.23%E -1.71%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.53%EV -10.88%E -9.89%K -108.84%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -8.98%E -1.28%K -1.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-21 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎24.00I 4.17%NM 4.14%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.29%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-07-21 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎24.00I 4.17%NM 4.14%1.18I 84.75%NM 84.29%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.57%0.5%2026-07-21 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎22.00I 4.55%NM 4.50%1.18I 84.75%NM 83.97%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52%0.9%2026-07-21 18:55