Larne FC v Red Star Belgrade

2026-07-21 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

82%

13%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Larne FC (Local)

Prediction 4.87%20.53fair odd

EV +26.67%

Edge +1.03%

Kelly +1.07%

Growth +0.284%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.53%4.98%4.87%6.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

14.0019.5020.0026.007%5%5%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Red Star Belgrade (Visit)

Prediction 81.92%1.22fair odd

EV -5.79%

Edge -5.04%

Kelly -38.62%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.00%81.96%81.92%83.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.111.131.131.1590%88%88%87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 13.21%7.57fair odd

EV -0.932%

Edge -0.124%

Kelly -0.143%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

12.44%13.07%13.21%15.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

6.006.947.007.5017%14%14%13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
PlayUp	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV +26.67%E +1.03%K +1.07%G +0.284%	1.13I 88.50%NM 81.18%EV -7.43%E -6.58%K -57.16%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -20.75%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-07-17 20:09
888sport	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV +12.05%E +0.524%K +0.548%G +0.066%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.48%EV -6.61%E -5.80%K -47.23%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV -7.54%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-17 20:04
888sport (SE)	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV +12.05%E +0.524%K +0.548%G +0.066%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.48%EV -6.61%E -5.80%K -47.23%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV -7.54%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-17 20:05
Mr Green (SE)	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV +12.05%E +0.524%K +0.548%G +0.066%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.48%EV -6.61%E -5.80%K -47.23%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.43%EV -7.54%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-17 20:05
1xBet	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +7.18%E +0.326%K +0.342%G +0.025%	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.32%EV -8.25%E -7.37%K -68.75%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -0.932%E -0.124%K -0.143%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-07-17 20:04
Marathon Bet	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +7.18%E +0.326%K +0.342%G +0.025%	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.32%EV -8.25%E -7.37%K -68.75%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -0.932%E -0.124%K -0.143%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-07-17 19:59
Betr (AU)	18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -12.31%E -0.684%K -0.724%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.80%EV -5.79%E -5.04%K -38.62%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -4.23%E -0.584%K -0.678%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-17 19:39
Coolbet	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -17.18%E -1.01%K -1.07%G +0.000%	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -5.79%E -5.04%K -38.62%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -7.54%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-17 20:00
Bet Right	16.00I 6.25%NM 5.72%EV -22.05%E -1.38%K -1.47%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 80.22%EV -6.61%E -5.80%K -47.23%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -14.14%E -2.18%K -2.57%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-07-17 18:24
SportsBet	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -26.92%E -1.79%K -1.92%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -7.43%E -6.58%K -57.16%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -7.54%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-07-17 18:19
FanDuel	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -26.92%E -1.79%K -1.92%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -7.43%E -6.58%K -57.16%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -7.54%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-07-17 18:18
Paddy Power	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.34%EV -31.79%E -2.27%K -2.45%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 80.00%EV -9.07%E -8.17%K -82.45%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 13.66%EV -14.14%E -2.18%K -2.57%G +0.000%	12.6%	2026-07-17 18:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.