The School of Odds
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Floriana F.C. v Shamrock Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-07-07 17:30 UTC

Final: Floriana F.C. 2–0 Shamrock Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Floriana F.C. (Local)

Prediction 23.39%4.28fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.423%
Kelly -0.555%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.52%23.41%23.09%25.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.903.954.2028.57%25.62%25.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shamrock Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 47.40%2.11fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.36%47.59%47.47%50.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.921.882.0556.50%52.21%53.19%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV +2.23%
Edge +0.637%
Kelly +0.892%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.73%29.00%29.43%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.283.303.5033.33%30.50%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Floriana F.C. (Local): 23.39%; Shamrock Rovers (Visit): 47.40%; Draw: 29.21%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -4.12%E -1.00%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.84%EV -9.93%E -5.23%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV +2.23%E +0.637%K +0.892%G +0.020%5.6%2026-07-07 16:50
Grosvenor🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV +0.771%E +0.223%K +0.315%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-07 15:30
Unibet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV +0.771%E +0.223%K +0.315%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-07 15:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV +0.771%E +0.223%K +0.315%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-07 15:30
Casumo🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV +0.771%E +0.223%K +0.315%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-07 15:30
TABtouch🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV +0.771%E +0.223%K +0.315%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-07 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV +0.771%E +0.223%K +0.315%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-07 15:30
Unibet (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV +0.771%E +0.223%K +0.315%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-07 15:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV +0.771%E +0.223%K +0.315%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-07 15:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV +0.771%E +0.223%K +0.315%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-07 15:30
betPARX🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.55%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.48%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.96%EV +0.771%E +0.223%K +0.315%G +0.002%7.5%2026-07-07 15:30
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.79%E -2.25%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -7.56%E -3.88%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -0.690%E -0.203%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-07 17:05
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -1.78%E -0.423%K -0.555%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -0.690%E -0.203%K -0.287%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 16:59
Virgin Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -9.96%E -2.59%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.66%EV -13.25%E -7.24%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -0.690%E -0.203%K -0.287%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-07 17:15
LiveScore Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -9.96%E -2.59%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.66%EV -13.25%E -7.24%K -15.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -0.690%E -0.203%K -0.287%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-07 17:20
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -16.98%E -4.78%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.54%EV -6.14%E -3.10%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -2.15%E -0.642%K -0.915%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-07 17:05
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -16.98%E -4.78%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.54%EV -6.14%E -3.10%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -2.15%E -0.642%K -0.915%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-07 17:05
Bet Right🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -9.96%E -2.59%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.79%EV -10.88%E -5.79%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -2.15%E -0.642%K -0.915%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-07 17:25
Bovada🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.91%EV -6.45%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.66%EV -2.82%E -1.38%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.43%EV -5.07%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-07 17:14
BetUS🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.91%EV -6.45%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.66%EV -2.82%E -1.38%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.43%EV -5.07%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-07 17:15
DraftKings🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -7.62%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.19%E -2.60%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -5.07%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-07 17:05
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -18.15%E -5.19%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -7.56%E -3.88%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -5.07%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-07 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.41%EV -12.30%E -3.28%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.59%EV -16.09%E -9.09%K -20.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.01%EV -5.07%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-07 15:30
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -1.78%E -0.423%K -0.555%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.22%EV -14.67%E -8.15%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -6.53%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-07 17:05
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -15.81%E -4.39%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.73%EV -12.78%E -6.94%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.88%EV -7.99%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-07 17:10
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -4.12%E -1.00%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.51%EV -7.56%E -3.88%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-07 17:05
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -6.45%E -1.61%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.63%EV -8.98%E -4.68%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-07 17:05
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -11.13%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.56%E -3.88%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-07 17:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -11.13%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.56%E -3.88%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-07 17:15
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -11.13%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -7.56%E -3.88%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-07 17:15
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -18.15%E -5.19%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 46.78%EV -11.35%E -6.07%K -13.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-07 17:05
1xBet🎯4.09I 24.45%NM 22.91%EV -4.35%E -1.06%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.38%EV -4.24%E -2.10%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-07 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.12%E -1.00%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.19%E -2.60%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.59%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-07 17:20
LowVig.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -4.12%E -1.00%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.78%EV -5.66%E -2.85%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 17:05
BetOnline.ag🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -4.12%E -1.00%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.78%EV -5.66%E -2.85%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-07 17:05
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -11.13%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.27%EV -11.35%E -6.07%K -13.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-07 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.37%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38%1.6%2026-07-07 17:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.37%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38%1.6%2026-07-07 17:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.37%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38%1.6%2026-07-07 17:25