The School of Odds
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FC Ararat-Armenia v Shamrock Rovers

Kickoff: 2026-07-21 16:00 UTC

Final: FC Ararat-Armenia 2–0 Shamrock Rovers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Ararat-Armenia (Local)

Prediction 43.61%2.29fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.47%43.55%43.68%44.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.122.2450.00%47.22%47.17%44.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shamrock Rovers (Visit)

Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -0.843%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.31%27.43%27.28%28.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.303.303.5532.79%30.34%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.06%3.44fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.613%
Kelly -0.872%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.52%29.03%29.04%29.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.243.3732.26%30.87%30.86%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Ararat-Armenia (Local): 43.61%; Shamrock Rovers (Visit): 27.33%; Draw: 29.06%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.37, with an expected value of -2.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.32%EV -2.30%E -1.03%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.88%EV -4.91%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.79%EV -2.07%E -0.613%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-21 15:40
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -2.99%E -0.843%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-21 15:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.10%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 15:45
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.09%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 15:35
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.05%E -1.84%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -11.19%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 15:45
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -4.92%E -2.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.46%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 15:35
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -4.92%E -2.26%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.46%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 15:35
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.23%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.36%E -1.25%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-21 15:45
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.23%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.09%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.55%E -1.71%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-21 15:15
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.23%E -2.90%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-21 15:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.86%EV -7.10%E -3.33%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.31%EV -6.55%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.83%EV -5.84%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.86%EV -7.10%E -3.33%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.31%EV -6.55%E -1.91%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.83%EV -5.84%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 15:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.02%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.82%EV -4.91%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -2.65%E -0.790%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:10
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -2.65%E -0.790%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -2.65%E -0.790%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -2.65%E -0.790%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -2.65%E -0.790%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -2.65%E -0.790%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:10
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -2.65%E -0.790%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:10
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -2.65%E -0.790%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:10
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -2.65%E -0.790%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:10
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -2.65%E -0.790%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-21 15:10
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -7.54%E -3.56%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -11.19%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 15:45
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.41%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.36%E -1.25%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-21 15:45
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.41%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.41%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 15:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.41%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-21 15:45
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -8.41%E -4.01%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -15.29%E -4.93%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-21 15:40
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%EV -9.28%E -4.46%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -5.73%E -1.66%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.46%E -2.69%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -9.28%E -4.46%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -13.92%E -4.42%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -4.10%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-21 15:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.66%EV -9.28%E -4.46%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -13.92%E -4.42%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -4.10%E -1.24%K -1.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-21 15:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -10.59%E -5.17%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.36%E -1.25%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-21 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.60%EV -11.90%E -5.89%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.88%EV -16.66%E -5.46%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.52%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-21 15:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -12.77%E -6.39%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -12.56%E -3.92%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -7.01%E -2.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-21 15:39
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -12.77%E -6.39%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-21 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -12.77%E -6.39%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -9.83%E -2.98%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.91%E -3.20%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-21 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-21 15:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-07-21 15:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%1.1%2026-07-21 15:45