The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Bodø/Glimt v Union Saint-Gilloise

Kickoff: 2026-08-11 16:00 UTC

Final: Bodø/Glimt 3–2 Union Saint-Gilloise

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bodø/Glimt (Local)

Prediction 55.64%1.80fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -4.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.67%55.66%55.73%57.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.661.7462.50%60.04%60.24%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Union Saint-Gilloise (Visit)

Prediction 21.06%4.75fair odd
EV +4.26%
Edge +0.860%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 4.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.15%21.05%20.96%22.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.424.404.9525.00%22.65%22.73%20.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.30%4.29fair odd
EV -0.986%
Edge -0.232%
Kelly -0.303%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.38%23.29%23.31%24.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.004.004.2526.32%25.00%25.00%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bodø/Glimt (Local): 55.64%; Union Saint-Gilloise (Visit): 21.06%; Draw: 23.30%. For Union Saint-Gilloise (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.75. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.45%EV -8.19%E -4.97%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.15%EV +4.26%E +0.860%K +1.08%G +0.046%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.40%EV -5.65%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-11 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.45%EV -8.19%E -4.97%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.15%EV +4.26%E +0.860%K +1.08%G +0.046%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.40%EV -5.65%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-11 15:55
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.71%EV -8.19%E -4.97%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.39%EV +3.41%E +0.695%K +0.873%G +0.030%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.89%EV -3.08%E -0.741%K -0.975%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-11 15:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.19%EV -8.19%E -4.97%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -1.01%E -0.215%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.74%EV -3.32%E -0.799%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-11 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35%EV -4.30%E -2.50%K -5.97%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.84%EV -2.06%E -0.443%K -0.565%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.81%EV -0.986%E -0.232%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-11 15:55
Bovada🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.05%EV -5.41%E -3.18%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%EV -3.11%E -0.677%K -0.865%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -4.48%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-11 15:54
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -10.98%E -6.86%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -3.11%E -0.677%K -0.865%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -10.30%E -2.68%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-11 15:55
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.00%EV -3.74%E -2.16%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.91%EV -4.17%E -0.916%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 15:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10%EV -5.41%E -3.18%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.22%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%EV -2.15%E -0.512%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-11 15:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10%EV -5.41%E -3.18%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -5.22%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%EV -2.15%E -0.512%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-11 15:39
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.94%EV -5.97%E -3.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -5.22%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%EV -4.48%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 15:49
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.41%E -3.18%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -5.22%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-11 15:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.08%EV -6.52%E -3.88%K -9.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -5.22%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -4.48%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-11 15:55
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.62%EV -5.97%E -3.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -5.22%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-11 15:40
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -7.33%E -1.67%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -4.48%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 15:40
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.96%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -7.33%E -1.67%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -4.48%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 15:39
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.47%EV -7.64%E -4.60%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -7.33%E -1.67%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -9.14%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-11 15:40
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -7.33%E -1.67%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-11 15:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -7.33%E -1.67%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-11 15:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -7.08%E -4.24%K -10.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -7.33%E -1.67%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-11 15:54
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -9.86%E -6.09%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -8.80%E -2.03%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-11 15:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -3.19%E -1.83%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.07%EV -9.22%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.26%EV -4.71%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 15:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.67%EV -3.19%E -1.83%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.07%EV -9.22%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.26%EV -4.71%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-11 15:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.52%EV -7.64%E -4.60%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -9.43%E -2.19%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-11 15:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.52%EV -7.64%E -4.60%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -9.43%E -2.19%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-11 15:40
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.52%EV -7.64%E -4.60%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -9.43%E -2.19%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-11 15:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.67%EV -8.19%E -4.97%K -12.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -9.43%E -2.19%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-11 15:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.41%EV -5.41%E -3.18%K -7.73%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -10.49%E -2.47%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -2.15%E -0.512%K -0.672%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 15:40
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.22%EV -7.64%E -4.60%K -11.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.57%EV -10.49%E -2.47%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.21%EV -7.97%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-11 15:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.22%EV -8.75%E -5.34%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.54%E -2.75%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -9.14%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-11 15:39
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.22%EV -8.75%E -5.34%K -13.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.54%E -2.75%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -9.14%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-11 15:40
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -9.31%E -5.71%K -14.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -11.54%E -2.75%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -9.14%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-11 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -9.86%E -6.09%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -11.54%E -2.75%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -11.47%E -3.02%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-11 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.38%EV -10.98%E -6.86%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -13.65%E -3.33%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.01%EV -10.30%E -2.68%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-11 15:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.38%EV -10.98%E -6.86%K -18.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -13.65%E -3.33%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.01%EV -10.30%E -2.68%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-11 15:40
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -9.86%E -6.09%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -15.75%E -3.94%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -6.81%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-11 15:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.32%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.74%0.3%2026-08-11 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.32%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.74%0.3%2026-08-11 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.46%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%0.6%2026-08-11 15:55