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AGF Aarhus v Sabah FK
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AGF Aarhus (Local)
Prediction 53.38%1.87fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -4.89%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%53.33%53.38%56.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.671.8061.73%58.99%59.88%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sabah FK (Visit)
Prediction 21.05%4.75fair odd
EV +3.15%
Edge +0.642%
Kelly +0.806%
Growth +0.025%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.14%21.08%21.05%21.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.644.754.9023.81%21.57%21.05%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.57%3.91fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.42%25.59%25.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.723.703.8028.57%26.88%27.03%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AGF Aarhus (Local): 53.38%; Sabah FK (Visit): 21.05%; Draw: 25.57%. For Sabah FK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.75. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -10.85%E -6.50%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV +3.15%E +0.642%K +0.806%G +0.025% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.84%E -0.748%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -10.85%E -6.50%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV +3.15%E +0.642%K +0.806%G +0.025% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.84%E -0.748%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -10.85%E -6.50%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV +3.15%E +0.642%K +0.806%G +0.025% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.84%E -0.748%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -10.85%E -6.50%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV +3.15%E +0.642%K +0.806%G +0.025% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.84%E -0.748%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -10.85%E -6.50%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV +3.15%E +0.642%K +0.806%G +0.025% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.84%E -0.748%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -10.85%E -6.50%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV +3.15%E +0.642%K +0.806%G +0.025% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.84%E -0.748%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -10.85%E -6.50%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV +3.15%E +0.642%K +0.806%G +0.025% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.84%E -0.748%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -11.92%E -7.22%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +1.04%E +0.217%K +0.274%G +0.003% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -2.84%E -0.748%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -11.92%E -7.22%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +1.04%E +0.217%K +0.274%G +0.003% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -2.84%E -0.748%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.06%EV -11.92%E -7.22%K -18.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV +1.04%E +0.217%K +0.274%G +0.003% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.67%EV -4.12%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -13.52%E -8.35%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -0.012%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.40%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.21%EV -13.52%E -8.35%K -21.81%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.17%EV -0.012%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.40%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.31%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 4.53I 22.08%NM 20.83%EV -4.64%E -1.03%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -6.68%E -1.83%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-05 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.31%EV -5.51%E -3.11%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 4.53I 22.08%NM 20.83%EV -4.64%E -1.03%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.85%EV -6.68%E -1.83%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-05 16:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.01%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%EV -5.27%E -1.17%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -5.40%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 17:03 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.27%E -1.17%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.96%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.54%EV -10.32%E -6.14%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -5.27%E -1.17%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -6.68%E -1.83%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.21%EV -4.98%E -2.80%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV -7.38%E -1.68%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -4.12%E -1.10%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.03%EV -8.72%E -5.10%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -7.38%E -1.68%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -5.40%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.58%E -3.76%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.45%EV -8.43%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.40%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-05 17:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.77%EV -8.72%E -5.10%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.48%E -2.21%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -5.40%E -1.46%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -10.85%E -6.50%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -7.96%E -2.21%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -10.85%E -6.50%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -11.59%E -2.76%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -10.51%E -3.00%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.52% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-08-05 16:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.66% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.66% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-05 17:05 |
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