The School of Odds
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AEK Athens v PFC Levski Sofia

2026-08-26 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League Qualification

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AEK Athens (Local)

Prediction 59.62%1.68fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -4.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.40%60.03%59.62%61.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.551.551.6367.11%64.34%64.52%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

PFC Levski Sofia (Visit)

Prediction 15.23%6.57fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -0.395%
Kelly -0.469%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.69%15.21%15.23%15.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.116.056.4017.39%16.37%16.53%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.15%3.98fair odd
EV +0.607%
Edge +0.152%
Kelly +0.202%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.38%24.77%25.15%25.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.703.704.0028.57%27.03%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: AEK Athens (Local): 59.62%; PFC Levski Sofia (Visit): 15.23%; Draw: 25.15%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +0.607%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.53%EV -9.38%E -6.17%K -18.04%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.09%EV -5.58%E -0.900%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV +0.607%E +0.152%K +0.202%G +0.001%6.9%2026-08-18 23:25
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.78%EV -2.82%E -1.73%K -4.48%G +0.000%6.37I 15.70%NM 15.30%EV -2.99%E -0.469%K -0.556%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.92%EV -1.66%E -0.424%K -0.569%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-19 01:15
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.43%EV -4.61%E -2.88%K -7.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.21%EV -4.82%E -0.770%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -5.68%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-19 00:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.78%EV -6.99%E -4.48%K -12.49%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -7.10%E -1.16%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.93%EV -5.93%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-19 01:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.53%EV -5.80%E -3.67%K -10.00%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -4.82%E -0.770%K -0.917%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-19 00:30
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.89%EV -6.40%E -4.08%K -11.23%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -2.53%E -0.395%K -0.469%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-19 01:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.57%EV -11.17%E -7.50%K -22.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -8.62%E -1.44%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -6.94%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-18 22:05
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -7.59%E -4.90%K -13.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -8.62%E -1.44%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.45%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-19 00:30
FanDuel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -8.19%E -5.32%K -15.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -8.62%E -1.44%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -9.45%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-19 00:30
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.78%E -5.74%K -16.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -8.62%E -1.44%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.45%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-19 00:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -8.78%E -5.74%K -16.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -8.62%E -1.44%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.45%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-19 00:30
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.40%EV -7.59%E -4.90%K -13.80%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.74%EV -12.43%E -2.16%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -11.97%E -3.42%K -4.79%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-19 00:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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