Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Slavia Praha v Arsenal

2026-11-04 20:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Slavia Praha (Local)

Predicción 8.89%11.24momio equitativo
EV +6.73%
Ventaja +0.561%
Kelly +0.612%
Crecimiento +0.041%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
7.78%8.89%8.92%10.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.7510.3810.5012.0012.90%9.63%9.52%8.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arsenal (Visitante)

Predicción 76.11%1.31momio equitativo
EV -0.291%
Ventaja -0.222%
Kelly -0.938%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.07%76.09%76.10%77.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.161.231.241.3186.21%80.99%80.65%76.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 14.99%6.67momio equitativo
EV +1.19%
Ventaja +0.177%
Kelly +0.208%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.10%15.02%14.98%16.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.306.146.006.7518.87%16.29%16.67%14.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Slavia Praha (Local): 8.89%; Arsenal (Visitante): 76.11%; Empate: 14.99%. Para Slavia Praha (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 11.24. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 12.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +6.73%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 8.03%EV +6.73%E +0.561%K +0.612%G +0.041%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.70%EV -5.62%E -4.53%K -23.41%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.27%EV +1.19%E +0.177%K +0.208%G +0.002%3.8%2026-10-22 00:39
SportsBet🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +6.73%E +0.561%K +0.612%G +0.041%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -7.14%E -5.85%K -32.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-21 22:20
betfred_uk🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV +6.73%E +0.561%K +0.612%G +0.041%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -7.14%E -5.85%K -32.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-21 22:00
Paddy Power🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +6.73%E +0.561%K +0.612%G +0.041%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -8.66%E -7.22%K -43.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 22:04
Betr (AU)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV +2.28%E +0.199%K +0.218%G +0.005%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.29%EV -7.14%E -5.85%K -32.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.51%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-21 22:00
NordicBet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -2.16%E -0.197%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.07%EV -4.10%E -3.25%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.21%EV -5.55%E -0.881%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-22 00:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -2.16%E -0.197%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -5.62%E -4.53%K -23.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 22:35
Fanatics🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -2.16%E -0.197%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -5.62%E -4.53%K -23.41%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-21 22:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -2.16%E -0.197%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 22:50
Sky Bet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -2.16%E -0.197%K -0.216%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.56%EV -7.14%E -5.85%K -32.46%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.30%E -1.01%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 22:42
1xBet🎯10.90I 9.17%NM 9.05%EV -3.05%E -0.280%K -0.308%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 75.85%EV -1.05%E -0.809%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.53I 15.31%NM 15.10%EV -2.10%E -0.322%K -0.380%G +0.000%1.4%2026-10-21 22:05
Marathon Bet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.52%EV -3.34%E -2.63%K -12.35%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.35%EV -6.30%E -1.01%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 22:00
BetMGM🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.08%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.26%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.66%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-21 22:04
Betsson🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.72%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.27%EV -7.05%E -1.14%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-22 00:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:34
Grosvenor🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:34
Virgin Bet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:34
Unibet (NL)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:34
BetRivers🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:35
LiveScore Bet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:35
TABtouch🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:35
Unibet (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:35
Unibet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:35
Svenska Spel🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:34
betPARX🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:34
ATG (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:35
Bally Bet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:35
FanDuel🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 76.84%EV -7.90%E -6.53%K -37.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 22:20
Unibet (UK)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -6.61%E -0.629%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -7.14%E -5.85%K -32.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-21 22:00
GTbets🎯10.33I 9.68%NM 9.52%EV -8.12%E -0.786%K -0.870%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 75.09%EV -0.291%E -0.222%K -0.938%G +0.000%6.39I 15.65%NM 15.39%EV -4.20%E -0.658%K -0.780%G +0.000%1.7%2026-10-21 22:05
Fliff🎯10.20I 9.80%NM 8.97%EV -9.28%E -0.910%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.27%EV -8.66%E -7.22%K -43.32%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.76%EV -7.05%E -1.14%K -1.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-21 22:34
Coral🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -11.06%E -1.11%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 22:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -11.06%E -1.11%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -4.86%E -3.89%K -19.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 22:04
picklebet_au🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.06%E -1.11%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.14%E -5.85%K -32.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-21 21:20
PlayUp🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -11.06%E -1.11%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.14%E -5.85%K -32.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-21 22:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.63%EV -13.28%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.70%EV -5.62%E -4.53%K -23.41%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -4.05%E -0.633%K -0.751%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-21 22:00
Neds🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.63%EV -13.28%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.70%EV -5.62%E -4.53%K -23.41%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -4.05%E -0.633%K -0.751%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-21 22:04
ReBet🎯9.70I 10.31%NM 9.38%EV -13.73%E -1.41%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.20%EV -7.90%E -6.53%K -37.63%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.42%EV -11.55%E -1.96%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-21 22:00
PMU (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.60%EV -15.50%E -1.63%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 74.12%EV -6.38%E -5.19%K -27.74%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.28%EV -16.05%E -2.87%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-21 22:34
LeoVegas🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -15.50%E -1.63%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.40%EV -8.66%E -7.22%K -43.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -10.05%E -1.67%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-22 00:39
Casumo🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -15.50%E -1.63%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 74.22%EV -7.90%E -6.53%K -37.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -17.55%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-21 22:34
Winamax (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -19.95%E -2.22%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.72%EV -7.90%E -6.53%K -37.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -2.55%E -0.393%K -0.464%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-21 22:00
Betclic (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.74%EV -19.95%E -2.22%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 74.31%EV -10.19%E -8.63%K -56.59%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.94%EV -17.55%E -3.19%K -3.90%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-21 22:00
Unibet (FR)🎯8.70I 11.49%NM 9.92%EV -22.62%E -2.60%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 73.79%EV -10.95%E -9.36%K -64.39%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.29%EV -20.54%E -3.88%K -4.78%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-21 22:00
Winamax (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 10.94%EV -31.07%E -4.01%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 73.07%EV -11.71%E -10.09%K -73.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 15.99%EV -20.54%E -3.88%K -4.78%G +0.000%18.0%2026-10-21 22:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎8.40I 11.90%NM 10.21%1.17I 85.47%NM 73.30%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.49%16.6%2026-10-21 22:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 34.55%1.23I 81.30%NM 30.90%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.55%163.1%2026-10-21 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 34.55%1.23I 81.30%NM 30.90%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.55%163.1%2026-10-21 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 34.55%1.23I 81.30%NM 30.90%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.55%163.1%2026-10-21 22:20
Arbitraje (9 combinaciones) +0.52%SportsBet 12.00 (8.4%) / GTbets 1.31 (76.7%) / Coolbet 6.75 (14.9%)Ver las 9 combinaciones
Slavia Praha (Local)Arsenal (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Coolbet🎯 12.00 (8.4%)GTbets🎯 1.31 (76.7%)Coolbet🎯 6.75 (14.9%)+0.519%
SportsBet🎯 12.00 (8.4%)GTbets🎯 1.31 (76.7%)Coolbet🎯 6.75 (14.9%)+0.519%
betfred_uk🎯 12.00 (8.4%)GTbets🎯 1.31 (76.7%)Coolbet🎯 6.75 (14.9%)+0.519%
Paddy Power🎯 12.00 (8.4%)GTbets🎯 1.31 (76.7%)Coolbet🎯 6.75 (14.9%)+0.519%
Betr (AU)🎯 11.50 (8.7%)GTbets🎯 1.31 (76.5%)Coolbet🎯 6.75 (14.8%)+0.154%
Coolbet🎯 12.00 (8.3%)GTbets🎯 1.31 (76.3%)1xBet🎯 6.53 (15.3%)+0.017%
SportsBet🎯 12.00 (8.3%)GTbets🎯 1.31 (76.3%)1xBet🎯 6.53 (15.3%)+0.017%
betfred_uk🎯 12.00 (8.3%)GTbets🎯 1.31 (76.3%)1xBet🎯 6.53 (15.3%)+0.017%
Paddy Power🎯 12.00 (8.3%)GTbets🎯 1.31 (76.3%)1xBet🎯 6.53 (15.3%)+0.017%