Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Liverpool v Atlético Madrid

2026-09-09 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Liverpool (Local)

Predicción 54.08%1.85momio equitativo
EV -3.73%
Ventaja -2.10%
Kelly -4.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.43%54.14%54.24%55.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.721.721.7861.73%58.06%58.14%56.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlético Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 21.59%4.63momio equitativo
EV -1.12%
Ventaja -0.244%
Kelly -0.312%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.03%21.54%21.60%22.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.704.324.334.5827.03%23.17%23.09%21.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.33%4.11momio equitativo
EV +0.226%
Ventaja +0.055%
Kelly +0.072%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.12

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.61%24.32%24.17%24.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.453.823.804.1228.99%26.15%26.32%24.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Liverpool (Local): 54.08%; Atlético Madrid (Visitante): 21.59%; Empate: 24.33%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.11. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.12, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.226%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.06%EV -4.27%E -2.41%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 21.28%EV -1.12%E -0.244%K -0.312%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.66%EV +0.226%E +0.055%K +0.072%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-29 23:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.06%EV -4.81%E -2.74%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.30%EV -1.76%E -0.388%K -0.497%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%EV -0.261%E -0.064%K -0.084%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 21:45
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.33%EV -3.73%E -2.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.49%EV -2.84%E -0.632%K -0.812%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -2.69%E -0.673%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-29 19:05
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.82%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.69%E -0.673%K -0.898%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 19:24
GTbets🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.56%EV -3.73%E -2.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.43%EV -8.24%E -1.94%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.01%EV -3.42%E -0.862%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 22:30
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.51%EV -5.90%E -3.39%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.60%EV -5.22%E -1.19%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.89%EV -3.42%E -0.862%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 00:45
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.18%EV -4.81%E -2.74%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.14%EV -3.91%E -0.990%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 02:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 19:05
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.70%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -2.84%E -0.632%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 19:05
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.97%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.44%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 19:05
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.11%EV -5.90%E -3.39%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 18:30
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.26%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.82%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.68%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 21:23
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:30
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:30
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.02%EV -8.60%E -5.09%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.13%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 19:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.71%EV -4.27%E -2.41%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.60%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -6.34%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 18:29
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -6.98%E -4.06%K -9.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -8.24%E -1.94%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -6.34%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 19:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -6.98%E -4.06%K -9.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -11.48%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.34%E -1.65%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 18:30
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 20:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 20:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 20:55
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -5.35%E -3.06%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 00:00
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.10%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 19:04
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:50
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:50
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 20:55
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 21:00
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-29 21:00
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -6.51%E -1.50%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 19:05
Suprabets🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.56%E -1.99%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 23:43
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.34%EV -6.44%E -3.72%K -8.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -8.24%E -1.94%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -9.99%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 22:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -6.98%E -4.06%K -9.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -9.99%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-29 18:29
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.91%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -7.16%E -1.67%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -9.99%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 19:00
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.50%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -9.99%E -2.70%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 18:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.57%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.75%EV -10.48%E -2.85%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 18:28
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.03%EV -7.52%E -4.40%K -10.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -11.48%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -11.21%E -3.07%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 18:30
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.89%EV -8.06%E -4.74%K -11.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.63%EV -11.21%E -3.07%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 18:30
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.34%EV -10.76%E -6.52%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.10%EV -8.24%E -1.94%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.56%EV -11.21%E -3.07%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 20:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.38%EV -12.39%E -7.65%K -19.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.49%EV -11.48%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.14%EV -11.21%E -3.07%K -4.23%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-30 01:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.43%EV -12.39%E -7.65%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.95%EV -20.12%E -5.44%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.62%EV -16.07%E -4.66%K -6.56%G +0.000%17.7%2026-08-29 22:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37%2.6%2026-08-29 23:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37%2.6%2026-08-29 23:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37%2.6%2026-08-29 23:45
Smarkets1.64I 60.98%NM 52.20%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.56%16.8%2026-08-29 18:30