Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Inter Milan v Club Brugge

2026-10-13 19:00 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

37 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Inter Milan (Local)

Predicción 72.51%1.38momio equitativo
EV -3.56%
Ventaja -2.67%
Kelly -10.78%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
70.30%72.41%72.58%75.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.231.291.291.3381.30%77.31%77.52%75.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Club Brugge (Visitante)

Predicción 10.27%9.74momio equitativo
EV +11.95%
Ventaja +1.10%
Kelly +1.21%
Crecimiento +0.144%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.84%10.28%10.31%12.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.259.038.5010.9013.79%11.08%11.76%9.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 17.22%5.81momio equitativo
EV +3.29%
Ventaja +0.549%
Kelly +0.658%
Crecimiento +0.022%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.68%17.31%17.11%18.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.955.305.106.0020.20%18.88%19.61%16.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Inter Milan (Local): 72.51%; Club Brugge (Visitante): 10.27%; Empate: 17.22%. Para Club Brugge (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 9.74. 10 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 10.90, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +11.95%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.98%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 9.03%EV +11.95%E +1.10%K +1.21%G +0.144%5.79I 17.27%NM 16.99%EV -0.323%E -0.056%K -0.067%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.98%EV -5.01%E -3.82%K -16.15%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 9.02%EV +10.41%E +0.968%K +1.07%G +0.111%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.00%EV -1.87%E -0.328%K -0.398%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Betsson🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.07%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV +7.84%E +0.747%K +0.826%G +0.065%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.80%EV -12.20%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-12 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.07%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV +7.84%E +0.747%K +0.826%G +0.065%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.80%EV -12.20%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-12 14:18
SportsBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.04%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.08%EV +7.84%E +0.747%K +0.826%G +0.065%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%EV +3.29%E +0.549%K +0.658%G +0.022%4.9%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.28%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.43%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.84%EV +7.84%E +0.747%K +0.826%G +0.065%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -5.32%E -0.966%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-12 14:20
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -6.46%E -5.01%K -22.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV +2.71%E +0.271%K +0.301%G +0.008%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -5.32%E -0.966%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +2.71%E +0.271%K +0.301%G +0.008%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -1.01%E -0.176%K -0.213%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 14:20
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -6.46%E -5.01%K -22.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV +2.71%E +0.271%K +0.301%G +0.008%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.95%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.43%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +2.71%E +0.271%K +0.301%G +0.008%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -5.32%E -0.966%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.13%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.43%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -2.43%E -0.256%K -0.286%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -1.01%E -0.176%K -0.213%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.59%EV -10.08%E -8.13%K -42.01%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -2.43%E -0.256%K -0.286%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.68%EV +1.57%E +0.266%K +0.321%G +0.005%8.1%2026-09-12 14:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.24%EV -5.73%E -4.41%K -19.11%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.35%EV -5.51%E -0.599%K -0.672%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.42%EV -0.151%E -0.026%K -0.031%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Pinnacle🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.45%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000%9.13I 10.95%NM 10.22%EV -6.23%E -0.682%K -0.766%G +0.000%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.34%EV -1.70%E -0.298%K -0.361%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.58%EV -6.46%E -5.01%K -22.27%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.40%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -5.32%E -0.966%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 14:17
NetBet (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.58%EV -10.81%E -8.79%K -46.99%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.92%EV -7.56%E -0.840%K -0.945%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.50%EV -12.20%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Suprabets🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.78%EV -8.63%E -6.85%K -33.20%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.54%EV -10.64%E -1.22%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -5.32%E -0.966%K -1.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-12 14:19
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -3.56%E -2.67%K -10.78%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -13.92%E -2.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 14:20
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -6.46%E -5.01%K -22.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -12.70%E -1.49%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -5.32%E -0.966%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-12 14:20
ReBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.57%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 10.95%EV -14.75%E -1.78%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV -10.48%E -2.02%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.46%EV -9.36%E -7.49%K -37.43%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.03%EV -16.81%E -2.07%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.51%EV -12.20%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.38%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -17.83%E -2.23%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.13%EV -1.87%E -0.328%K -0.398%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.28%EV -7.91%E -6.23%K -29.29%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -17.83%E -2.23%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.41%EV -10.48%E -2.02%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.06%EV -10.81%E -8.79%K -46.99%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.28%EV -20.40%E -2.63%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.66%EV -14.78%E -2.99%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-12 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 70.88%EV -10.81%E -8.79%K -46.99%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.03%EV -25.54%E -3.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.09%EV -12.20%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.22I 81.97%NM 69.70%7.20I 13.89%NM 11.81%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.49%17.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.28I 78.13%NM 29.66%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.82%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.52%163.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.28I 78.13%NM 29.66%1.06I 94.34%NM 35.82%1.10I 90.91%NM 34.52%163.4%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.28I 78.13%NM 28.78%1.06I 94.34%NM 34.75%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.47%171.5%2026-09-12 14:20