Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fenerbahce v Liverpool

2026-11-04 17:45 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (11 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fenerbahce (Local)

Predicción 24.83%4.03momio equitativo
EV -0.697%
Ventaja -0.174%
Kelly -0.232%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.32%24.76%24.87%26.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.813.754.0030.30%26.28%26.67%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Liverpool (Visitante)

Predicción 50.25%1.99momio equitativo
EV -2.51%
Ventaja -1.29%
Kelly -2.67%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.86%50.25%50.19%51.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.741.841.841.9457.47%54.39%54.35%51.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.92%4.01momio equitativo
EV -0.312%
Ventaja -0.078%
Kelly -0.104%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.52%24.99%24.94%26.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.353.753.804.0029.85%26.69%26.32%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Fenerbahce (Local): 24.83%; Liverpool (Visitante): 50.25%; Empate: 24.92%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.01. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 4.00, con un valor esperado de -0.312%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -4.52%E -2.38%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-21 22:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:20
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:20
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:20
BetRivers🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:19
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:19
TABtouch🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:19
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:19
Unibet (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:19
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:19
Bally Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:19
betPARX🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -9.04%E -5.00%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-21 22:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -0.697%E -0.174%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -9.55%E -5.30%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-21 22:50
1xBet🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 24.71%EV -1.19%E -0.300%K -0.401%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.70%EV -2.51%E -1.29%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.59%EV -0.312%E -0.078%K -0.104%G +0.000%1.7%2026-10-21 21:40
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.31%EV -1.94%E -0.491%K -0.657%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.07%EV -5.53%E -2.94%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.62%EV -2.80%E -0.719%K -0.967%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-21 22:40
Betsson🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -3.18%E -0.815%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -4.05%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-21 22:35
Marathon Bet🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 24.70%EV -3.68%E -0.947%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.72%EV -5.02%E -2.66%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.58%EV -2.80%E -0.719%K -0.967%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-21 21:26
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.94%EV -4.42%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.06%EV -5.53%E -2.94%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.00%EV -0.312%E -0.078%K -0.104%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 00:39
PMU (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.49%EV -4.42%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.39%EV -11.56%E -6.57%K -15.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-21 22:20
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -6.03%E -3.22%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -2.80%E -0.719%K -0.967%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-21 22:25
Casumo🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -5.66%E -1.49%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.51%EV -12.56%E -7.22%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-21 22:20
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -0.312%E -0.078%K -0.104%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-21 22:04
Betr (AU)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -2.80%E -0.719%K -0.967%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-21 22:04
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-21 22:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -6.90%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.42%EV -5.53%E -2.94%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 21:09
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -4.02%E -2.10%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-21 21:27
BetMGM🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -4.02%E -2.10%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-21 21:26
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -4.02%E -2.10%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-21 21:27
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -4.52%E -2.38%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-21 21:27
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -4.52%E -2.38%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-21 21:27
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -2.80%E -0.719%K -0.967%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-21 22:25
888sport🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 22:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 22:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 22:00
William Hill🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 22:05
picklebet_au🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -10.28%E -2.86%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-21 21:10
PlayUp🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -8.14%E -2.20%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.41%EV -8.54%E -4.69%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-21 22:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -9.39%E -2.57%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -7.54%E -4.10%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -7.79%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-21 21:10
ReBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -9.39%E -2.57%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.45%EV -7.54%E -4.10%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -11.53%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-21 21:10
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.63%E -2.95%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.92%EV -3.01%E -1.56%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-21 21:27
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -10.63%E -2.95%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -7.03%E -3.80%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-21 22:42
LeoVegas🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -10.63%E -2.95%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -8.04%E -4.39%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -11.53%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-22 00:39
Betclic (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -11.87%E -3.34%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.60%EV -11.05%E -6.24%K -14.36%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.67%EV -14.77%E -4.32%K -6.10%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-21 21:10
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.75%EV -13.11%E -3.75%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 49.78%EV -12.56%E -7.22%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.47%EV -15.27%E -4.49%K -6.36%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-21 21:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 25.76%EV -18.08%E -5.48%K -7.86%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 48.86%EV -12.56%E -7.22%K -16.97%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.38%EV -16.51%E -4.93%K -7.03%G +0.000%17.6%2026-10-21 21:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 25.21%1.77I 56.50%NM 48.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%16.7%2026-10-21 21:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 26.92%1.12I 89.29%NM 46.15%1.92I 52.08%NM 26.92%93.5%2026-10-21 22:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 26.92%1.12I 89.29%NM 46.15%1.92I 52.08%NM 26.92%93.5%2026-10-21 22:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 26.47%1.08I 92.59%NM 47.06%1.92I 52.08%NM 26.47%96.8%2026-10-21 22:20