La escuela de los momios

Bayer Leverkusen v Arsenal

Inicio: 2026-03-10 19:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Bayer Leverkusen (Local)

Predicción 17.72%5.64momio equitativo
EV +5.45%
Ventaja +0.915%
Kelly +1.10%
Crecimiento +0.060%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.25%17.69%17.77%19.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.755.385.305.9521.05%18.60%18.87%16.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Arsenal (Visitante)

Predicción 58.74%1.70momio equitativo
EV -2.50%
Ventaja -1.51%
Kelly -3.79%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.95%58.81%58.68%61.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.471.581.601.6668.03%63.27%62.50%60.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.54%4.25momio equitativo
EV +3.59%
Ventaja +0.815%
Kelly +1.06%
Crecimiento +0.038%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.91%23.50%23.55%25.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.404.044.004.4029.41%24.77%25.00%22.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
NordicBet5.95I 16.81%NM 16.25%EV +5.45%E +0.915%K +1.10%G +0.060%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.44%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.30%EV -2.30%E -0.554%K -0.729%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 01:49
Betsson5.95I 16.81%NM 16.25%EV +5.45%E +0.915%K +1.10%G +0.060%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.44%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.30%EV -2.30%E -0.554%K -0.729%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 01:49
Unibet (NL)5.80I 17.24%NM 16.83%EV +2.79%E +0.480%K +0.581%G +0.016%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.99%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.18%EV +3.59%E +0.815%K +1.06%G +0.038%2.5%2026-02-28 03:14
Unibet (SE)5.80I 17.24%NM 16.83%EV +2.79%E +0.480%K +0.581%G +0.016%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.99%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.18%EV +3.59%E +0.815%K +1.06%G +0.038%2.5%2026-02-28 03:14
Svenska Spel5.80I 17.24%NM 16.83%EV +2.79%E +0.480%K +0.581%G +0.016%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.99%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.18%EV +3.59%E +0.815%K +1.06%G +0.038%2.5%2026-02-28 03:14
ATG (SE)5.80I 17.24%NM 16.83%EV +2.79%E +0.480%K +0.581%G +0.016%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.99%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.18%EV +3.59%E +0.815%K +1.06%G +0.038%2.5%2026-02-28 03:14
Coolbet5.75I 17.39%NM 16.80%EV +1.90%E +0.331%K +0.400%G +0.008%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.64%EV -4.85%E -2.99%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.56%EV -3.47%E -0.847%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-27 14:59
LeoVegas (SE)5.75I 17.39%NM 16.60%EV +1.90%E +0.331%K +0.400%G +0.008%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.20%EV -8.37%E -5.37%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV +1.23%E +0.287%K +0.374%G +0.005%4.7%2026-02-28 03:14
Unibet5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV +1.90%E +0.331%K +0.400%G +0.008%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -8.96%E -5.78%K -16.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV +1.23%E +0.287%K +0.374%G +0.005%5.2%2026-02-28 03:14
Grosvenor5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV +1.90%E +0.331%K +0.400%G +0.008%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -8.96%E -5.78%K -16.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV +1.23%E +0.287%K +0.374%G +0.005%5.2%2026-02-28 03:14
betPARX5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV +1.90%E +0.331%K +0.400%G +0.008%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -8.96%E -5.78%K -16.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV +1.23%E +0.287%K +0.374%G +0.005%5.2%2026-02-28 03:14
Bally Bet5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV +1.90%E +0.331%K +0.400%G +0.008%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -8.96%E -5.78%K -16.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.11%EV +1.23%E +0.287%K +0.374%G +0.005%5.2%2026-02-28 03:14
BetRivers5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV +1.90%E +0.331%K +0.400%G +0.008%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.34%EV -9.55%E -6.20%K -17.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.23%EV +0.057%E +0.013%K +0.017%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-28 03:14
1xBet5.64I 17.73%NM 17.48%EV -0.049%E -0.009%K -0.010%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.38%EV -2.50%E -1.51%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 23.14%EV +0.292%E +0.069%K +0.090%G +0.000%1.4%2026-02-27 15:00
FanDuel5.60I 17.86%NM 17.01%EV -0.758%E -0.135%K -0.165%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.17%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 14:04
BetOnline.ag5.60I 17.86%NM 17.01%EV -0.758%E -0.135%K -0.165%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.53%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.46%EV -4.42%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 15:29
LowVig.ag5.60I 17.86%NM 17.01%EV -0.758%E -0.135%K -0.165%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.53%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.46%EV -4.42%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 15:29
TABtouch5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -0.758%E -0.135%K -0.165%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.07%EV -9.55%E -6.20%K -17.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +0.057%E +0.013%K +0.017%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 03:14
LeoVegas5.60I 17.86%NM 16.55%EV -0.758%E -0.135%K -0.165%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -11.31%E -7.49%K -22.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -1.12%E -0.267%K -0.350%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-28 03:14
Pinnacle5.51I 18.15%NM 17.21%EV -2.35%E -0.427%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.26%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.53%EV -5.12%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-27 14:59
PointsBet (AU)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.39%EV -2.53%E -0.460%K -0.562%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.69%EV -4.26%E -2.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-27 14:04
Fanatics5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -2.53%E -0.460%K -0.562%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -4.85%E -2.99%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 16:09
SportsBet5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -2.53%E -0.460%K -0.562%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-27 14:04
Everygame5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -2.53%E -0.460%K -0.562%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 20:44
Paddy Power5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -2.53%E -0.460%K -0.562%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-27 13:48
Casumo5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -2.53%E -0.460%K -0.562%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.90%E -7.93%K -23.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -1.12%E -0.267%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 03:14
Suprabets5.40I 18.52%NM 17.34%EV -4.30%E -0.797%K -0.978%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.89%EV -6.61%E -4.16%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.77%EV -7.24%E -1.84%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-27 21:02
Virgin Bet5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -4.30%E -0.797%K -0.978%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.32%EV -13.66%E -9.29%K -29.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -3.47%E -0.847%K -1.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-28 03:14
LiveScore Bet5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -4.30%E -0.797%K -0.978%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.32%EV -13.66%E -9.29%K -29.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -3.47%E -0.847%K -1.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-28 03:14
PMU (FR)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.37%EV -6.07%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.02%EV -8.37%E -5.37%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 14:04
GTbets5.27I 18.98%NM 18.05%EV -6.61%E -1.25%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.35%EV -4.26%E -2.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.60%EV -5.12%E -1.27%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-27 16:27
Unibet (UK)5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -6.96%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -4.85%E -2.99%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 14:59
BetMGM5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -6.96%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.36%EV -4.85%E -2.99%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 14:04
Ladbrokes (UK)5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -6.96%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 14:44
Coral5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -6.96%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 14:05
Caesars5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -6.96%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 15:29
DraftKings5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV -6.96%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.81%EV -6.61%E -4.16%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-27 17:05
Bet Victor5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -6.96%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-27 15:02
BetUS5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -6.96%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -7.20%E -4.56%K -12.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-27 17:29
Betway5.25I 19.05%NM 17.66%EV -6.96%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.94%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-28 00:49
Sky Bet5.25I 19.05%NM 17.57%EV -6.96%E -1.33%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.77%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.66%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-27 13:50
Codere (IT)5.20I 19.23%NM 18.32%EV -7.85%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.44%EV -4.26%E -2.61%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -3.47%E -0.847%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-27 14:59
Neds5.20I 19.23%NM 17.91%EV -7.85%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.21%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 14:44
Ladbrokes (AU)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.91%EV -7.85%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.21%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 14:44
Winamax (DE)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.62%EV -7.85%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.48%EV -9.55%E -6.20%K -17.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-27 14:59
Winamax (FR)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.62%EV -7.85%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.48%EV -9.55%E -6.20%K -17.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-27 14:59
Fliff5.10I 19.61%NM 17.93%EV -9.62%E -1.89%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.62%EV -8.37%E -5.37%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-27 16:19
Unibet (FR)5.10I 19.61%NM 17.83%EV -9.62%E -1.89%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.44%EV -10.13%E -6.62%K -19.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-27 14:59
William Hill5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -11.39%E -2.28%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.49%EV -4.85%E -2.99%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-27 15:29
888sport5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -11.39%E -2.28%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 15:30
888sport (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -11.39%E -2.28%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 15:30
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -11.39%E -2.28%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.18%E -2.10%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-27 15:29
BoyleSports5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -11.39%E -2.28%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 15:00
PlayUp5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -11.39%E -2.28%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.25%EV -6.02%E -3.76%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -11.71%E -3.12%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-27 14:59
Betclic (FR)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -11.39%E -2.28%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.90%EV -9.55%E -6.20%K -17.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.96%EV -7.01%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-27 15:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 17.43%EV -11.39%E -2.28%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.95%EV -10.13%E -6.62%K -19.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.63%EV -19.95%E -5.87%K -8.31%G +0.000%14.8%2026-02-27 13:50
NetBet (FR)4.80I 20.83%NM 18.30%EV -14.94%E -3.11%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.57%EV -11.90%E -7.93%K -23.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.12%EV -10.54%E -2.77%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.8%2026-02-27 15:39
theScore Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -15.82%E -3.33%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -5.44%E -3.38%K -8.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -5.83%E -1.46%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 14:59
Parions Sport (FR)4.75I 21.05%NM 18.62%EV -15.82%E -3.33%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.80%EV -10.13%E -6.62%K -19.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -11.71%E -3.12%K -4.26%G +0.000%13.1%2026-02-27 13:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.08%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%7.1%2026-02-27 14:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-02-27 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-02-27 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-02-27 12:54