Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Barcelona v Feyenoord

2026-09-09 16:45 UTC — UEFA Champions League

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Barcelona (Local)

Predicción 82.68%1.21momio equitativo
EV -4.09%
Ventaja -3.52%
Kelly -25.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.16

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
78.08%82.69%82.74%84.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.061.131.141.1694.34%88.12%87.72%86.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Feyenoord (Visitante)

Predicción 6.10%16.38momio equitativo
EV +11.41%
Ventaja +0.625%
Kelly +0.662%
Crecimiento +0.076%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 18.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
5.31%6.11%6.13%8.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
10.0014.8915.0018.2510.00%6.71%6.67%5.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 11.21%8.92momio equitativo
EV +6.53%
Ventaja +0.687%
Kelly +0.768%
Crecimiento +0.050%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.22%11.20%11.13%13.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.258.208.009.5016.00%12.20%12.50%10.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Barcelona (Local): 82.68%; Feyenoord (Visitante): 6.10%; Empate: 11.21%. Para Feyenoord (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 16.38. 7 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 18.25, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +11.41%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 84.27%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%18.25I 5.48%NM 5.31%EV +11.41%E +0.625%K +0.662%G +0.076%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.42%EV +4.28%E +0.460%K +0.516%G +0.022%3.2%2026-08-29 19:40
1xBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 84.14%EV -4.09%E -3.52%K -25.56%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.42%EV +9.89%E +0.549%K +0.582%G +0.057%9.35I 10.70%NM 10.44%EV +4.84%E +0.518%K +0.580%G +0.028%2.5%2026-08-29 19:45
Coolbet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 84.39%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.39%EV +9.89%E +0.549%K +0.582%G +0.057%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.22%EV +6.53%E +0.687%K +0.768%G +0.050%3.0%2026-08-29 18:37
betfred_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.25%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +3.78%E +0.222%K +0.236%G +0.009%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -4.69%E -0.552%K -0.625%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 18:30
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.89%EV -6.57%E -5.81%K -50.53%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV +3.78%E +0.222%K +0.236%G +0.009%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV +0.919%E +0.102%K +0.115%G +0.001%5.5%2026-08-29 19:50
PlayUp🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.77%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV +3.78%E +0.222%K +0.236%G +0.009%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.76%EV -24.31%E -3.60%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 22:45
GTbets🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.44%EV -4.09%E -3.52%K -25.56%G +0.000%16.51I 6.06%NM 5.79%EV +0.790%E +0.048%K +0.051%G +0.000%8.13I 12.30%NM 11.76%EV -8.84%E -1.09%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-29 20:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.95%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.96%EV -2.32%E -0.145%K -0.155%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.09%EV -3.57%E -0.415%K -0.469%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-29 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.52%EV -6.57%E -5.81%K -50.53%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.83%EV -2.32%E -0.145%K -0.155%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 18:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.21%EV -7.40%E -6.60%K -61.63%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -2.32%E -0.145%K -0.155%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -4.69%E -0.552%K -0.625%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 19:50
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.34%EV -8.22%E -7.41%K -74.75%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.78%EV -2.32%E -0.145%K -0.155%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -4.69%E -0.552%K -0.625%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 19:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.42%EV -12.36%E -11.66%K -205.95%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.53%EV -2.32%E -0.145%K -0.155%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-29 19:44
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -6.57%E -5.81%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.46I 6.47%NM 6.11%EV -5.62%E -0.363%K -0.389%G +0.000%9.16I 10.92%NM 10.31%EV +2.71%E +0.296%K +0.332%G +0.009%5.9%2026-08-30 01:15
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.77%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.35%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.88%EV -1.88%E -0.215%K -0.243%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 02:15
888sport🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 20:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 20:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 20:55
William Hill🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.94%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.64%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.28%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.08%EV -4.69%E -0.552%K -0.625%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 18:40
betPARX🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
BetRivers🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
Grosvenor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:05
TABtouch🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:20
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.07%EV -5.74%E -5.04%K -41.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 00:15
Sky Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.76%EV -6.57%E -5.81%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -4.69%E -0.552%K -0.625%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 18:39
Bet Right🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.20%EV -6.57%E -5.81%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -6.57%E -5.81%K -50.53%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -15.90%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 22:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.96%EV -7.40%E -6.60%K -61.63%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.92%EV -13.66%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 18:51
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.46%EV -8.22%E -7.41%K -74.75%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -8.43%E -0.562%K -0.602%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -10.29%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-29 19:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.44%EV -7.40%E -6.60%K -61.63%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.40%EV -13.01%E -0.913%K -0.982%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -15.90%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 18:53
Suprabets🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.20%EV -7.40%E -6.60%K -61.63%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.58%EV -14.53%E -1.04%K -1.12%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.23%EV -8.05%E -0.982%K -1.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 19:39
ReBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.98%EV -7.40%E -6.60%K -61.63%G +0.000%13.75I 7.27%NM 6.60%EV -16.06%E -1.17%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.42%EV -18.14%E -2.49%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 18:50
BetMGM🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.09%E -3.52%K -25.56%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.07%EV -17.59%E -1.30%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +0.919%E +0.102%K +0.115%G +0.001%4.7%2026-08-29 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.22%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -20.64%E -1.59%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV +0.919%E +0.102%K +0.115%G +0.001%5.8%2026-08-29 18:30
Coral🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.22%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -20.64%E -1.59%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.51%EV +0.919%E +0.102%K +0.115%G +0.001%5.8%2026-08-29 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.11%EV -7.40%E -6.60%K -61.63%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -20.64%E -1.59%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -4.69%E -0.552%K -0.625%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 18:50
theScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 82.11%EV -7.40%E -6.60%K -61.63%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV -20.64%E -1.59%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -4.69%E -0.552%K -0.625%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 18:49
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.08%EV -8.22%E -7.41%K -74.75%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.92%EV -20.64%E -1.59%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -15.90%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 21:00
Neds🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.74%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -23.69%E -1.90%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.74%EV -1.88%E -0.215%K -0.243%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.74%EV -4.92%E -4.27%K -32.77%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV -23.69%E -1.90%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.74%EV -1.88%E -0.215%K -0.243%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:30
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.47%EV -7.40%E -6.60%K -61.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -26.74%E -2.23%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -15.90%E -2.12%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-29 20:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 78.08%EV -10.70%E -9.91%K -133.79%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.43%EV -38.95%E -3.90%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.49%EV -29.92%E -4.79%K -5.70%G +0.000%18.6%2026-08-29 22:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.14I 87.72%NM 84.84%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.07%3.4%2026-08-29 22:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.14I 87.72%NM 84.84%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.07%3.4%2026-08-29 22:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.14I 87.72%NM 80.97%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.42%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.61%8.3%2026-08-29 22:35
Smarkets1.09I 91.74%NM 78.08%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.74%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.18%17.5%2026-08-29 18:50