Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Genclerbirligi SK v Erzurum BB

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:30 UTC

Final: Genclerbirligi SK 1–1 Erzurum BB

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Genclerbirligi SK (Local)

Prediction 42.40%2.36fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.34%42.53%42.37%44.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.192.2950.00%46.29%45.77%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Erzurum BB (Visit)

Prediction 26.26%3.81fair odd
EV +2.40%
Edge +0.616%
Kelly +0.828%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.81%26.17%26.33%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.503.9030.30%28.19%28.57%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.34%3.19fair odd
EV -0.014%
Edge -0.004%
Kelly -0.006%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.74%31.30%31.30%32.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.1935.71%33.32%33.33%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Genclerbirligi SK (Local): 42.40%; Erzurum BB (Visit): 26.26%; Draw: 31.34%. For Erzurum BB (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.81. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.18%EV -7.14%E -3.26%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.81%EV +2.40%E +0.616%K +0.828%G +0.020%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.01%EV -2.21%E -0.708%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-28 18:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.18%EV -7.14%E -3.26%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.81%EV +2.40%E +0.616%K +0.828%G +0.020%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.01%EV -2.21%E -0.708%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-28 18:01
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.25%EV -2.90%E -1.27%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.06%EV +1.35%E +0.350%K +0.473%G +0.006%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.69%EV -7.22%E -2.44%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-28 18:15
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.51%EV -5.45%E -2.44%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.08%EV -2.32%E -0.625%K -0.855%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.41%EV -0.014%E -0.004%K -0.006%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-28 18:26
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.85%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.85%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 18:05
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.85%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.85%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.85%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 18:05
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.85%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.85%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 18:05
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.85%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -2.85%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -1.27%E -0.403%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 18:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.84%E -4.11%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.85%E -0.770%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-28 18:10
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.03%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -4.16%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.06%EV -7.54%E -2.55%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-28 18:10
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.72%E -3.05%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.48%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -2.84%E -0.915%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-28 18:10
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.48%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-28 18:20
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.72%E -3.05%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.48%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 18:21
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.72%E -3.05%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.48%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.54%E -2.55%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 18:26
Bovada🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.61%EV -6.30%E -2.85%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -5.48%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.84%EV -12.24%E -4.37%K -6.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 18:24
BetUS🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.61%EV -6.30%E -2.85%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -5.48%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.84%EV -12.24%E -4.37%K -6.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.65%EV -5.02%E -2.24%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -6.00%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.28%EV -9.42%E -3.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 18:26
Codere (IT)🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.61%EV -6.30%E -2.85%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.79%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -4.40%E -1.44%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-28 18:10
Betsson🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.50%EV -5.45%E -2.44%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.37%EV -7.84%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -9.73%E -3.38%K -5.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-28 18:25
NordicBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.50%EV -5.45%E -2.44%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.37%EV -7.84%E -2.23%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -9.73%E -3.38%K -5.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-28 18:26
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -6.72%E -3.05%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.84%E -0.915%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 18:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.72%E -3.05%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 18:10
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-28 18:26
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.79%EV -7.57%E -3.47%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.19%EV -11.30%E -3.99%K -6.17%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-28 18:24
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.84%E -4.11%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.73%E -3.38%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-28 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -8.84%E -4.11%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.62%EV -9.73%E -3.38%K -5.18%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-28 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.19%EV -13.50%E -6.62%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-28 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.19%EV -13.50%E -6.62%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-28 18:05
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.44%EV -14.35%E -7.11%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.92%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 18:05
GTbets🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.98%EV -6.72%E -3.05%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.09%EV -8.36%E -2.40%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.92%EV -0.954%E -0.302%K -0.442%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 18:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.29%EV -15.20%E -7.60%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.03%EV -7.54%E -2.55%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.29%EV -15.20%E -7.60%K -15.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.03%EV -7.54%E -2.55%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 18:05
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -10.73%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -2.84%E -0.915%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 18:20
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.73%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 18:21
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.73%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 18:21
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -4.60%E -2.04%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.73%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 18:20
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.84%E -4.11%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.73%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 18:10
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.84%E -4.11%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.73%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 18:10
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.72%E -3.05%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.73%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.72%E -3.05%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.73%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -6.72%E -3.05%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -10.73%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 18:20
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.84%E -4.11%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.73%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -12.24%E -4.37%K -6.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-28 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -12.04%E -3.59%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -4.40%E -1.44%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-28 18:04
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.94%EV -10.11%E -4.77%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -12.04%E -3.59%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.53%EV -11.61%E -4.12%K -6.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-28 18:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.96%E -5.22%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.35%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 18:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -13.08%E -6.38%K -12.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -13.35%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -9.10%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-28 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.89%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.16%0.3%2026-08-28 18:26
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-28 18:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-28 18:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.40%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.11%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%0.8%2026-08-28 18:26
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.75%0.9%2026-08-28 18:20
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.53%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%1.9%2026-08-28 18:26