Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Galatasaray v Fenerbahce

2026-10-26 18:30 UTC — Turkey Super League

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Galatasaray (Local)

Predicción 41.36%2.42momio equitativo
EV -1.56%
Ventaja -0.655%
Kelly -1.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.35%41.44%41.33%43.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.202.202.3850.00%45.54%45.45%42.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fenerbahce (Visitante)

Predicción 33.01%3.03momio equitativo
EV +0.665%
Ventaja +0.218%
Kelly +0.325%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.60%32.86%33.00%34.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.852.873.0540.00%35.03%34.84%32.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.63%3.90momio equitativo
EV -3.36%
Ventaja -0.892%
Kelly -1.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.64%25.70%25.67%26.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.573.603.7730.30%27.97%27.78%26.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Galatasaray (Local): 41.36%; Fenerbahce (Visitante): 33.01%; Empate: 25.63%. Para Fenerbahce (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.03. 9 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.05, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.665%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.665%E +0.218%K +0.325%G +0.002%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.665%E +0.218%K +0.325%G +0.002%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.665%E +0.218%K +0.325%G +0.002%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 19:35
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.665%E +0.218%K +0.325%G +0.002%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 19:35
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.665%E +0.218%K +0.325%G +0.002%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 19:35
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.665%E +0.218%K +0.325%G +0.002%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 19:35
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.665%E +0.218%K +0.325%G +0.002%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 19:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.665%E +0.218%K +0.325%G +0.002%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 19:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV +0.665%E +0.218%K +0.325%G +0.002%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -6.44%E -1.76%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 19:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.49%EV -13.97%E -6.72%K -12.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -2.64%E -0.893%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.49%EV -13.97%E -6.72%K -12.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -2.64%E -0.893%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.49%EV -13.97%E -6.72%K -12.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -2.64%E -0.893%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-19 19:35
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.61%EV -14.38%E -6.95%K -13.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.60%EV -2.64%E -0.893%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-19 19:35
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.78%EV -1.56%E -0.655%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.47%EV -4.29%E -1.48%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.75%EV -3.36%E -0.892%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-19 15:35
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.60%EV -5.28%E -2.31%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.85%EV -4.29%E -1.48%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.54%EV -4.39%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-19 19:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -4.29%E -1.48%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.16%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-19 15:55
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -4.29%E -1.48%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-19 19:20
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -4.29%E -1.48%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -4.29%E -1.48%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 15:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -4.29%E -1.48%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 15:36
PMU (FR)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.34%EV -14.80%E -7.18%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.78%EV -4.29%E -1.48%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -11.56%E -3.35%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-19 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -5.28%E -1.84%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-19 19:25
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -5.28%E -1.84%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-19 19:24
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -5.94%E -2.08%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -3.87%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-19 18:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.94%E -2.08%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-19 19:25
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -5.94%E -2.08%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-19 19:25
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -4.87%E -2.12%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.98%EV -6.93%E -2.46%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 16:00
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.59%E -2.71%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.16%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 15:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.59%E -2.71%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.16%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 19:16
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.59%E -2.71%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.16%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-19 15:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.59%E -2.71%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -7.59%E -2.71%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 18:35
NordicBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.39%EV -5.28%E -2.31%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.03%EV -7.59%E -2.71%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.58%EV -10.80%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 16:01
Bovada🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -7.76%E -3.48%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -7.59%E -2.71%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-19 19:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.82%EV -5.70%E -2.50%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.48%EV -8.25%E -2.97%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.71%EV -7.21%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-19 15:30
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -9.24%E -3.36%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 18:45
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -9.24%E -3.36%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-19 15:50
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -6.94%E -3.08%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 18:35
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -10.89%E -4.03%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-19 15:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.43%EV -12.31%E -5.81%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.89%EV -11.88%E -4.45%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.68%EV -12.33%E -3.61%K -5.10%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-19 15:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.68%EV -17.28%E -8.64%K -17.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.21%EV -12.54%E -4.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.11%EV -12.85%E -3.78%K -5.35%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-19 15:35
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.25%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -14.19%E -5.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -7.72%E -2.14%K -2.97%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-19 16:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.53%EV -13.14%E -6.26%K -11.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -14.19%E -5.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.92%EV -10.28%E -2.94%K -4.11%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-19 15:35
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.35%EV -11.07%E -5.15%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.36%EV -14.19%E -5.46%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.29%EV -15.41%E -4.67%K -6.70%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-19 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.96%EV -15.21%E -7.42%K -14.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.59%EV -17.49%E -6.99%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.45%EV -15.41%E -4.67%K -6.70%G +0.000%19.1%2026-10-19 15:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 40.65%2.58I 38.76%NM 33.09%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.27%17.1%2026-10-19 15:35