Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Erzurum BB v Torku Konyaspor

Inicio: 2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

Final: Erzurum BB 1–0 Torku Konyaspor

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Erzurum BB (Local)

Predicción 40.75%2.45momio equitativo
EV -2.21%
Ventaja -0.920%
Kelly -1.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.45%40.80%40.61%42.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.282.302.4047.62%43.90%43.48%41.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Torku Konyaspor (Visitante)

Predicción 31.24%3.20momio equitativo
EV -0.958%
Ventaja -0.302%
Kelly -0.441%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.05%31.17%31.33%32.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.952.953.1736.36%33.89%33.90%31.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.01%3.57momio equitativo
EV -3.36%
Ventaja -0.975%
Kelly -1.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.78%28.02%28.07%29.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.323.333.4532.26%30.12%30.08%28.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Erzurum BB (Local): 40.75%; Torku Konyaspor (Visitante): 31.24%; Empate: 28.01%. Para Torku Konyaspor (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.20. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.17, con un valor esperado de -0.958%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.40%EV -2.21%E -0.920%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.17%EV -2.83%E -0.911%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.43%EV -4.49%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-04 08:41
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.48%EV -3.02%E -1.27%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.18%EV -3.46%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.34%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-04 14:15
GTbets🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.31%EV -3.02%E -1.27%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.88%EV -5.96%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.81%EV -3.36%E -0.975%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 14:19
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -4.25%E -1.81%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 00:40
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.47%E -2.36%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 13:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.47%E -2.36%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 13:14
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.47%E -2.36%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 13:14
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.47%E -2.36%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 13:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.47%E -2.36%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 13:10
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.47%E -2.36%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 13:10
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.47%E -2.36%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.47%E -2.36%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 13:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -5.47%E -2.36%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.37%EV -5.88%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.19%EV -6.58%E -2.20%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.43%EV -8.13%E -2.48%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 08:29
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -3.14%E -1.01%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 00:30
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -4.71%E -1.54%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -6.17%E -1.84%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 14:20
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -3.36%E -0.975%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 00:28
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.57%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 00:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.57%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 00:30
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.27%E -2.09%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.57%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 00:30
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 00:28
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 00:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -10.02%E -3.48%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:15
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -7.57%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 08:30
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -10.02%E -3.48%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.57%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 23:35
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -10.96%E -3.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.57%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 23:35
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -13.17%E -4.25%K -6.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 23:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -13.17%E -4.25%K -6.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 23:31
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.28%E -2.73%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.39%E -3.24%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -13.17%E -4.25%K -6.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-31 23:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.25%EV -6.69%E -2.92%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -4.71%E -1.54%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 02:05
Bovada🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.31%EV -6.69%E -2.92%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -8.97%E -2.76%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 08:33
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.77%EV -7.10%E -3.11%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.05%EV -0.958%E -0.302%K -0.441%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.18%EV -5.33%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 02:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.77%EV -7.10%E -3.11%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.05%EV -0.958%E -0.302%K -0.441%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.18%EV -5.33%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 02:00
BetUS🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.77%EV -7.10%E -3.11%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.05%EV -0.958%E -0.302%K -0.441%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.18%EV -5.33%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-01 22:30
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -8.32%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -3.14%E -1.01%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -4.77%E -1.40%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 12:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -8.32%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -3.14%E -1.01%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.57%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 11:20
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.43%EV -8.32%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -10.02%E -3.48%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -8.97%E -2.76%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 08:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -8.32%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -10.96%E -3.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -8.97%E -2.76%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-03 13:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -8.32%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -10.96%E -3.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -8.97%E -2.76%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-03 13:14
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.32%E -3.70%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -12.52%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -7.57%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 00:28
Betsson🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.34%EV -8.73%E -3.90%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.16%EV -4.08%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.97%E -2.76%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 14:05
NordicBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.34%EV -8.73%E -3.90%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.16%EV -4.08%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.49%EV -8.97%E -2.76%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-04 14:05
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.28%EV -9.14%E -4.10%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.08%EV -12.52%E -4.47%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -8.97%E -2.76%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-03 13:10
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -10.36%E -4.71%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.30%EV -14.08%E -5.12%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -8.97%E -2.76%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 00:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.35%EV -10.36%E -4.71%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.48%EV -11.89%E -4.22%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.18%EV -11.77%E -3.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-04 08:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -10.36%E -4.71%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -14.08%E -5.12%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -10.37%E -3.24%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 13:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -10.36%E -4.71%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -14.08%E -5.12%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -10.37%E -3.24%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-03 13:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.87%EV -11.58%E -5.34%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.59%EV -7.21%E -2.43%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -7.57%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 14:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -12.40%E -5.77%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.48%EV -10.96%E -3.84%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -6.17%E -1.84%K -2.62%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-02 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.59%EV -14.43%E -6.87%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -7.83%E -2.65%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -7.57%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 06:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.15%EV -14.43%E -6.87%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.42%EV -14.08%E -5.12%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.43%EV -11.77%E -3.74%K -5.47%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-02 14:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.66%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.22%2.2%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.66%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.22%2.2%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.66%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.22%2.2%2026-09-04 14:05
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.79%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.06%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.0%2026-09-04 12:35
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 41.38%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.54%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.09%4.2%2026-09-04 14:05
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 40.14%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%5.6%2026-09-04 14:10