Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Çaykur Rizespor v Alanyaspor

Inicio: 2026-09-07 17:00 UTC

Final: Çaykur Rizespor 0–1 Alanyaspor

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Çaykur Rizespor (Local)

Predicción 50.17%1.99momio equitativo
EV -2.68%
Ventaja -1.38%
Kelly -2.85%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.00%50.24%50.13%51.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.761.841.851.9456.82%54.27%54.05%51.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Alanyaspor (Visitante)

Predicción 22.24%4.50momio equitativo
EV +2.30%
Ventaja +0.500%
Kelly +0.639%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.74%22.15%22.24%23.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.854.194.204.6025.97%23.88%23.81%21.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.60%3.62momio equitativo
EV -3.42%
Ventaja -0.976%
Kelly -1.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.74%27.60%27.63%28.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.373.403.5032.26%29.64%29.41%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Çaykur Rizespor (Local): 50.17%; Alanyaspor (Visitante): 22.24%; Empate: 27.60%. Para Alanyaspor (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.50. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.60, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.30%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.52%EV -6.19%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.95%EV +2.30%E +0.500%K +0.639%G +0.015%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.53%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-07 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.40%EV -6.19%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.99%EV +1.86%E +0.405%K +0.518%G +0.010%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.62%EV -3.97%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-07 09:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.40%EV -6.19%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.58I 21.83%NM 20.99%EV +1.86%E +0.405%K +0.518%G +0.010%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.62%EV -3.97%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-07 09:45
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.77%EV -4.69%E -2.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.44%EV +0.077%E +0.017%K +0.022%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.80%EV -4.25%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-07 16:51
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV +0.077%E +0.017%K +0.022%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.94%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-07 16:55
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.98%EV -2.68%E -1.38%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.99%EV -1.92%E -0.436%K -0.564%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.03%EV -4.52%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-07 16:51
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.34%EV -6.69%E -3.60%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -2.15%E -0.488%K -0.632%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.38%EV -8.94%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-07 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -9.70%E -5.39%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -2.15%E -0.488%K -0.632%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-07 16:45
GTbets🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.80%EV -3.68%E -1.92%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.08%EV -3.70%E -0.855%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 07:15
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -3.70%E -0.855%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-07 09:05
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -9.70%E -5.39%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -3.70%E -0.855%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -11.70%E -3.65%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-07 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.55%EV -9.70%E -5.39%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -3.70%E -0.855%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -11.70%E -3.65%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-07 16:55
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.18%E -2.19%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -4.37%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 16:25
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.58%EV -6.19%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00%EV -4.37%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -4.80%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-07 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.44%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -4.37%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.56%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-07 16:55
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.72%EV -8.70%E -4.78%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.72%EV -5.48%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -7.56%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-07 16:55
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 21.84%EV -5.71%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.56%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-07 16:50
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 21.84%EV -5.71%E -1.35%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.56%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-07 16:50
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.12%EV -4.69%E -2.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 09:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.72%EV -4.69%E -2.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 16:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.72%EV -4.69%E -2.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 16:35
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 16:20
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 16:20
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 16:20
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 16:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 16:20
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -3.42%E -0.976%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 16:20
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 09:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 09:05
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.60%E -1.57%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-07 09:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.76%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.48%EV -9.93%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.76%EV -9.49%E -2.89%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 16:31
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.60%EV -11.71%E -6.65%K -15.41%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.99%EV -9.93%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -10.32%E -3.17%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-07 16:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.19%E -3.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 09:00
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.20%E -4.48%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 20:10
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -11.70%E -3.65%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 16:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -11.70%E -3.65%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -11.70%E -3.65%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 16:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.32%EV -9.70%E -5.39%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -7.56%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-07 08:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.32%EV -9.70%E -5.39%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -7.56%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-07 08:50
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.70%E -5.39%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.94%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-07 16:54
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.25%EV -10.20%E -5.70%K -12.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.49%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -8.94%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-07 08:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.97%EV -10.71%E -6.01%K -13.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -11.70%E -3.65%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-07 16:51
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -9.70%E -5.39%K -12.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -11.04%E -2.76%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -14.46%E -4.66%K -6.88%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-07 16:45
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.69%EV -7.19%E -3.89%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -12.15%E -3.08%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.18%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-07 09:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.48%EV -7.70%E -4.18%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -13.27%E -3.40%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -7.56%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 16:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.18%EV -11.71%E -6.65%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -13.27%E -3.40%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -10.32%E -3.17%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-07 16:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.18%EV -11.71%E -6.65%K -15.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -13.27%E -3.40%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -10.32%E -3.17%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-07 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.40%EV -8.70%E -4.78%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.35%EV -14.38%E -3.73%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -8.94%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-07 16:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%0.7%2026-09-07 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%0.7%2026-09-07 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%0.7%2026-09-07 16:55
Matchbook◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.93%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%0.7%2026-09-07 16:55
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.85%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.60%1.4%2026-09-07 16:55
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-09-07 16:50