Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Zurich v FC Vaduz

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:00 UTC

Final: FC Zurich 2–1 FC Vaduz

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Zurich (Local)

Prediction 36.71%2.72fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -0.886%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.61%36.69%36.72%38.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.472.452.6644.44%40.44%40.82%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Vaduz (Visit)

Prediction 38.87%2.57fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.39%38.86%38.91%40.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.382.392.5046.51%42.02%41.84%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.42%4.09fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -0.577%
Kelly -0.769%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.05%24.45%24.36%25.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.763.804.0028.57%26.56%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Zurich (Local): 36.71%; FC Vaduz (Visit): 38.87%; Draw: 24.42%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -2.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.61%EV -2.36%E -0.886%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.93%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 11:56
LowVig.ag🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.61%EV -2.36%E -0.886%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.93%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 11:56
Pinnacle🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.62%EV -3.09%E -1.17%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.14%EV -3.99%E -1.62%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.23%EV -2.55%E -0.639%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-13 11:56
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.56%E -1.75%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -2.31%E -0.577%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 11:50
GTbets🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.36%EV -4.56%E -1.75%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.43%EV -4.38%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -8.41%E -2.24%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 11:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.31%EV -4.56%E -1.75%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.85%EV -5.55%E -2.28%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 11:25
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.40%E -2.51%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -4.77%E -1.95%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.40%E -2.51%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -2.83%E -1.13%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -12.08%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 11:45
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.51%EV -6.40%E -2.51%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.62%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -4.75%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 11:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.46%EV -6.40%E -2.51%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.74%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -8.41%E -2.24%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 11:20
Bovada🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.59%EV -7.13%E -2.82%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.06%EV -7.88%E -3.32%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 11:51
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -8.23%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -4.75%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 11:45
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.23%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -10.60%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -2.31%E -0.577%K -0.769%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 11:35
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.23%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -9.63%E -2.60%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 11:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.34%EV -8.23%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.37%EV -12.54%E -5.58%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -4.75%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 11:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -8.23%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.67%EV -14.49%E -6.59%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 11:30
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -5.97%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 11:30
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -5.97%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 11:31
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -5.97%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 11:31
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -5.97%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 11:30
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -5.97%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -5.97%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 11:31
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -5.97%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 11:30
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -5.97%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 11:31
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.11%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.64%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV -5.97%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 11:31
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 11:01
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 11:40
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.11%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 11:40
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.33%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.92%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -5.97%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 11:50
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.27%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.05%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.63%E -2.60%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 11:45
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -12.08%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 11:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -12.08%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 11:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.90%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.60%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.79%EV -7.19%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 11:35
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.85%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.73%EV -10.85%E -2.97%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-13 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.35%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.58%EV -12.54%E -5.58%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.07%EV -9.63%E -2.60%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 11:35
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.35%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.58%EV -12.54%E -5.58%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.07%EV -9.63%E -2.60%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 11:31
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.35%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.58%EV -12.54%E -5.58%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.07%EV -9.63%E -2.60%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 11:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.29%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.66%EV -10.60%E -4.61%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.05%EV -13.30%E -3.75%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 11:56
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.32%EV -12.54%E -5.58%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.57%EV -12.08%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 11:30
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.12%EV -11.90%E -4.96%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -14.52%E -4.15%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 11:45
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -12.64%E -5.31%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.34%EV -9.63%E -2.60%K -3.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -12.64%E -5.31%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.59%EV -10.85%E -2.97%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 11:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.03%EV -14.47%E -6.21%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.70%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -10.85%E -2.97%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-13 11:31
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.03%EV -14.47%E -6.21%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.70%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -10.85%E -2.97%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-13 11:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.03%EV -14.47%E -6.21%K -10.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.70%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.27%EV -10.85%E -2.97%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-13 11:31
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.43%EV -17.41%E -7.74%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.17%EV -16.43%E -7.64%K -14.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.39%EV -12.08%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000%18.7%2026-09-13 11:46
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.03%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-09-13 11:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.03%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-09-13 11:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.03%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.17%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-09-13 11:51
Matchbook◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.74%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-09-13 11:56
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.52%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-09-13 11:56