Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Zurich v BSC Young Boys

Inicio: 2026-09-01 18:30 UTC

Final: FC Zurich 2–4 BSC Young Boys

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Zurich (Local)

Predicción 21.15%4.73momio equitativo
EV +0.445%
Ventaja +0.094%
Kelly +0.119%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.87%21.16%21.13%23.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.364.384.7526.67%22.92%22.86%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

BSC Young Boys (Visitante)

Predicción 58.73%1.70momio equitativo
EV -3.68%
Ventaja -2.24%
Kelly -5.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.64

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.19%58.70%58.75%60.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.501.571.561.6466.67%63.87%64.10%60.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.12%4.97momio equitativo
EV -2.42%
Ventaja -0.498%
Kelly -0.628%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.68%20.14%20.13%22.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.104.514.504.8524.39%22.19%22.22%20.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: FC Zurich (Local): 21.15%; BSC Young Boys (Visitante): 58.73%; Empate: 20.12%. Para FC Zurich (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.73. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.445%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV +0.445%E +0.094%K +0.119%G +0.001%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.75%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -4.43%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-01 18:05
Tipico (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -0.612%E -0.130%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -8.96%E -5.78%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -5.43%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-01 18:25
FanDuel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -2.73%E -0.593%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 18:19
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -2.73%E -0.593%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:20
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -2.73%E -0.593%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:20
Unibet (NL)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -2.73%E -0.593%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:20
Unibet (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -2.73%E -0.593%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:20
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -2.73%E -0.593%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:20
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -2.73%E -0.593%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:20
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -2.73%E -0.593%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:20
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -2.73%E -0.593%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:20
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -2.73%E -0.593%K -0.758%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-01 05:20
Pinnacle🎯4.59I 21.79%NM 21.00%EV -2.94%E -0.640%K -0.819%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.13%EV -4.26%E -2.62%K -6.77%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.87%EV -2.42%E -0.498%K -0.628%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-01 18:15
BetOnline.ag🎯4.54I 22.03%NM 21.26%EV -4.00%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.85%EV -3.68%E -2.24%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.90%EV -2.42%E -0.498%K -0.628%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-01 17:50
LowVig.ag🎯4.54I 22.03%NM 21.26%EV -4.00%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.85%EV -3.68%E -2.24%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.90%EV -2.42%E -0.498%K -0.628%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-01 17:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -4.84%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -4.43%E -0.932%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:05
SportsBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -4.84%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.78%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -11.47%E -2.61%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-01 18:20
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -4.84%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-01 18:05
Codere (IT)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -6.96%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.38%EV -4.85%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -5.43%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-01 17:50
Bet Right🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -6.96%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.78%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-01 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -6.96%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.47%EV -8.96%E -5.78%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.93%EV -12.88%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-01 18:20
BetRivers🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -6.96%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.98%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -11.47%E -2.61%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-01 05:20
Paddy Power🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -6.96%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.79%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -12.88%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-01 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.44%EV -8.01%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.29%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 17:45
Bovada🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.16%EV -8.01%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.62%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.23%EV -8.45%E -1.86%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-01 18:20
PlayUp🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.77%EV -8.01%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.19%EV -7.20%E -4.56%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -17.51%E -4.27%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-01 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.49%EV -8.01%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 59.02%EV -11.31%E -7.49%K -22.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.49%EV -12.48%E -2.87%K -3.72%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-01 05:20
GTbets🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.62%EV -8.44%E -1.95%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.80%EV -4.85%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.58%EV -8.45%E -1.86%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-01 17:50
Bet Victor🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.03%EV -8.44%E -1.95%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.74%EV -8.96%E -5.78%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-01 18:25
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.69%EV -9.07%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.58%EV -4.85%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 17:45
LeoVegas🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -9.07%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.19%EV -7.20%E -4.56%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.05%EV -9.07%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.39%EV -8.96%E -5.78%K -16.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.57%EV -11.47%E -2.61%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.55%EV -9.07%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.90%EV -11.90%E -7.93%K -23.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.55%EV -13.48%E -3.14%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-01 05:20
Virgin Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.55%EV -9.07%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.90%EV -11.90%E -7.93%K -23.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.55%EV -13.48%E -3.14%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-01 05:20
LiveScore Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.55%EV -9.07%E -2.11%K -2.75%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.90%EV -11.90%E -7.93%K -23.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.55%EV -13.48%E -3.14%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-01 05:20
betano_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -11.19%E -2.66%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -7.79%E -4.96%K -13.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-01 18:05
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.07%EV -11.19%E -2.66%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.85%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.07%EV -15.49%E -3.69%K -4.84%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-01 18:20
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -13.30%E -3.24%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.23%EV -4.85%E -3.00%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-01 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.29%EV -13.30%E -3.24%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.84%EV -7.20%E -4.56%K -12.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-01 17:45
NetBet (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -13.30%E -3.24%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.11%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -11.47%E -2.61%K -3.37%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-01 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 21.79%EV -14.36%E -3.55%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.68%EV -10.14%E -6.63%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.52%EV -13.48%E -3.14%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-01 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -15.41%E -3.85%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.58%EV -8.38%E -5.37%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-01 17:45
Neds🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -17.53%E -4.49%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.19%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.76%EV -12.88%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-01 17:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -17.53%E -4.49%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.19%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.76%EV -12.88%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-01 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.05%EV -17.53%E -4.49%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.19%EV -6.03%E -3.77%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.76%EV -12.88%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-01 17:45
BoyleSports🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 22.90%EV -20.70%E -5.52%K -7.53%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.26%EV -11.90%E -7.93%K -23.80%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.84%EV -12.88%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-01 17:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.49%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.23%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-09-01 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.80%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.00%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.0%2026-09-01 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.80%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.00%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.0%2026-09-01 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.80%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.00%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20%1.0%2026-09-01 18:25
Smarkets◎4.90I 20.41%NM 20.06%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.29%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%1.8%2026-09-01 18:25